NBA DFS Position Coach: March 23, 2016

We have a huge 12-game slate tonight. I am not going to lie to you I hate these huge slates and tend to play lighter on them. With a ton to cover we will skip the pleasantries today and dive right in.

With a four-year-old driving me nuts and a cat I have not seen all morning, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

Strategy

On a 12-game slate it is important to find value somewhere. Although there are a few noteworthy plays, I prefer to spend up a little at this position tonight with more “reliable” value elsewhere. Keep in mind it is early and on these giant slates so close to the end of the season, you really need to pay close attention as value has a huge way of popping up in these situations.

Core Players

The top play tonight at the point guard position by my standards is Chris Paul. In seven out of his last 10 games he has scored over 40 fantasy ppg, going over the 50 mark versus the Knicks (51.3) and Pelicans (57.7). Tonight Paul is facing a Warriors team allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to point guards in a game with a high 225.5 expected point total. Golden State is favored by 10 points tonight in this one but if the Clippers can stay reasonably close, Paul should have a good night. I am only running one lineup tonight at the moment and Paul is at the top of it.

Tonight the Timberwolves are 2.5-point favorites over the Kings in a game with a high 223.5 expected point total. For DFS purposes this is about as sweet as it gets for lines. Ricky Rubio, in his last 10 games, has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in seven of them going over the 40 mark versus the Nets (42.4), Thunder (46.6), Suns (47.1), and Warriors (45.3). Rubio is clearly on fire as of late and tonight benefits from a great matchup with the Kings, allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards. His price is low at $7K on FanDuel for a player who has six double-doubles in his last eight games and I am seriously considering pairing him with Paul tonight.

In nine out of his last 10 games Darren Collison has played more than 30 mpg. In this span he has managed to score over 30 fantasy ppg in four of them with two of them being in the last four games. Sacramento is fairly banged up and now DeMarcus Cousins is questionable with a bruised knee tonight. There is a chance if Boogie sits then Collison gets a bump in minutes. Clearly, James Anderson is not the answer to the riddle and Rajon Rondo is the “assist” guy. For the price of $5,600 on FanDuel coming off the bench in a great matchup with Minnesota allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to point guards and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards Collison should be on your radar as a viable option to save a few bucks. Keep a close eye on this game. If no Boogie the value has to fall somewhere.

The player I currently have paired with Paul is Brandon Knight because the Suns are playing the Lakers tonight. The same Lakers who are allowing the most fantasy ppg to point guards. This game also has a nice expected point total at 210 and Phoenix is only 4.5-point favorites. In his last game versus the Lakers Knight dropped 37.7 fantasy points in 33 minutes and I expect similar numbers tonight.

Possible Value Plays

Surprisingly we have several value plays at the point guard position but none that seem particularly safe. The first player to jump off the page tonight under $5K is D.J. Augustin. He has played 25 minutes or more in five out of the last six games scoring over 25 fantasy ppg in four of them hitting the 30 mark twice versus the Wizards (33.4) and Magic (31.8). The Sixers are allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to point guards and after failing to hit the 20 fantasy point mark in his last game his ownership could be lower than normal.

If you want to go cheaper than Augustin tonight then the only player I really dig is Isaiah Canaan. He is starting in the two tonight facing the Nuggets who are allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Canaan in his last 10 games has scored over 20 fantasy ppg six times hitting the 25 mark in three of them. His price is just a hair over $4K and although a bit riskier than Augustin, I feel with the matchup he could be a nice sneaky option.

Shooting Guard

Strategy

Not a ton of value at the two tonight and I prefer to go the route of savings at this position. Whether I am right or wrong in this will be better answered around midnight. Remember this from yesterday? Funny how things often stay the same in the NBA.

Core Players

"Fozzy the Beard," aka James Harden has the highest usage rate among shooting guards and the upside to boot. Without a lot of superstar options tonight I do not believe you will see many lineups that do not include Harden. Do you remember this as well? It also rings true tonight.

Harden is the top option at this position without question. He has managed to score over 50 fantasy ppg four times in his last 10 games going over the 60 mark versus the Raptors on March 6. If you can find another shooting guard tonight with stats like these then play him. Keep in mind Harden has a foot issue going on and could sit in this back-to-back but highly unlikely. Truth be told, by the end of the night I will probably roster him myself. Keep in mind he is facing a Utah team allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards but this matters little in my eyes.

Jordan Clarkson played 33 minutes last night after Byron Scott stated that the rookies would be playing heavy minutes from here on out and I believe it. Clarkson managed to score 30.5 fantasy points versus the Grizzlies and should feast tonight facing a Suns team allowing the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. His price is still low at $5,500 and with D’Angelo Russell in question could draw the start at point guard with Lou Williams starting in the two. If this happens I love both of them tonight. Otherwise I am still using Clarkson.

Zach LaVine continues to be the model of consistency. In three out of his last four games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg and just missed in his last game versus the Warriors scoring only 27.4. Tonight he faces a Kings team that defends the two to the tune of allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg. His price is $6,100 on FanDuel and well worth it in the eyes of this expert.

Bradley Beal is the other player I currently have paired with Clarkson tonight. The Hawks are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg and Beal in his last game versus Atlanta scored 30.1 fantasy points in 34 minutes. He seems to be back to the Bradley Beal of old and this is a great way to gain some exposure to the high 209 expected point total tonight in what should be a back-and-forth affair with the Hawks being only one-point favorites.

Possible Value Plays

I find value very thin tonight at shooting guard. Although risky, the play is J.R. Smith. The Bucks are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and although Smith has put up some serious stinkers scoring 10 or less fantasy ppg in three out of the last 10 for $4,300 on FanDuel he offers you that 30 fantasy point upside having scored 34.3 fantasy points versus Denver on Monday night. I would not expect to get another night like that tonight but I believe 25 fantasy points in this matchup is reasonable. If it helps Smith has scored in the double-digits in real life six times now in the last 10 games and offers you a few rebounds and assists but nothing noteworthy.

Small Forward

Strategy

This is a weird night at the three. I actually have more possible value plays for you than I do core plays. The slate is loaded with possible players under the $5K mark on FanDuel and it would serve you well to use at least one of them paired with one of the three core players below.

Core Players

LeBron James has a price tag under $10K on FanDuel. I find this an extreme bargain for James. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg now in seven out of his last nine games going over the 50 mark twice versus the Celtics (55.2) and Nuggets (59.7). He also has three double-doubles and a triple-double in this span. The Bucks are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and I prefer him over Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight whose name I hoped I would not have to spell today.

Carmelo Anthony is playing tonight and gets a great matchup facing a beat up Bulls team that is staggering back to health allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. In five out of his last nine games Melo has scored over 40 fantasy ppg and for under $9K is more than a viable option tonight. The Bulls are 8.5-point favorites but I expect this game to stay closer than this.

Otto Porter also appears to be back to being the guy we used to pay $6,500 on FanDuel for at one time. In his last six games he has scored over 25 fantasy ppg five times going over the 30 mark versus the Nuggets (34.9) and Hawks (38.5). Tonight he gets the Hawks again who are allowing the 13^th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards (which is not great I admit) but for his price I cannot resist using him again tonight. Plus, I love me some Otto Pops.

Possible Value Plays

Talk about loaded. We have several options tonight at this position. Several. Below are the four safest in my opinion.

P.J. Tucker, although most nights appears to be little more than a body on the court, benefits from a great matchup facing a Lakers team allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. Tucker in his last four games has scored 46.9, 16.6, 23.2, and 31.8 fantasy points versus the Timberwolves, Jazz, very same Lakers, and Grizzlies. For $4,600 it's worth taking a shot.

Thabo Sefolosha off the bench has been quietly putting up great fantasy numbers over his last six games. In this span he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg five times going over the 30 mark versus the Grizzlies (30.2) and Rockets (32.3). The Wizards are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and I see no reason Thabo does not have another good night against the team he dropped 22 fantasy points on in their last meeting.

Michael Beasley was a bit of a letdown last night scoring only 16.3 fantasy points versus the Thunder. He just did not get the minutes. Prior to this he had scored over 25 fantasy ppg in five of his last six going over the 30 mark twice. Tonight he gets a tough matchup facing a Jazz team that allows the second fewest fantasy ppg to everyone but point guards, but I expect his minutes to increase tonight in this back-to-back game.

Hollis Thompson, with the Sixers all banged up, is still playing plenty of minutes and producing decent fantasy numbers for the price of $4,400 on FanDuel. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four straight and tonight faces a Nuggets team allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards which just falls into favorable. Of all the value as hard as it is to say he is probably the safest.

Power Forward

Strategy

This power forward position tonight, much like the small forward, has some decent value. The problem is I like the higher priced guys myself, making the value that I would jump on most slates seem rather lackluster.

Core Players

The top play at power forward tonight who also has the highest upside is Draymond Green. For some reason I feel safer taking him now that he is playing center. The Clippers are allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to centers which could be better, but Green has been stepping it back up as of late and playing some heavy minutes with the Warriors' frontcourt lacking depth. In his last game versus the Timberwolves on Monday night he scored 51.8 fantasy points, something I believe he will get close to again tonight in this slated high-scoring affair. FYI, the Warriors have the highest team total on the slate at 117.8 and it almost feels like Green is getting ready to go triple-double loco again.

For some reason I keep wanting to sing “Dirk, Dirk, Dirk of the jungle” to the tune of George. The reason is pure and simple, Dirk is an animal. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in five of his last six even dropping 57.6 fantasy points versus the Trail Blazers on last Sunday night. This game has a nice 214.5 expected point total with Dallas being six-point underdogs. Portland is allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and for the price of $8,000 on FanDuel you are getting $9K production as of late. I currently have him paired with Green in my lineup at the expense of passing on Harden.

I don't love any forwards on Sacramento tonight, but I do love several players on the Timberwolves. All five starters tonight benefit from a great matchup with the Kings allowing a ton of fantasy points to all positions and the 28^th most overall. I find it almost impossible not to have some love for Gorgui Dieng tonight facing a Kings team allowing the most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Dieng has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six out of his last nine games even going over 40 versus the Thunder on March 11. His price is only $6,400 and he is a fine option for sure in all formats.

For some time the elven lord Kristaps Porzingis hath laid quiet. With the recent assassination attempt foiled where the elves of Keebler tried to feed him poison fudge striped cookies Porzingis has decided to take his aggressions out on the court once again. He has played over 30 minutes in three out of his last four games scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in two of them. His price has fallen low coming in at $5,900 on FanDuel and tonight he faces a Bulls team allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards.

In the dead silence of night under the cover of darkness Snap slithers through the high blades of grass dagger at the ready as he approaches the home of the sleeping Keebler elves…TBC.

You have two choices at power forward tonight from the Sixers side of things on FanDuel. One is Nerlens Noel, who for some reason I never take, and the other is Jerami Grant, who I do. The Nuggets are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Grant has managed to put together a nice four game run scoring 24, 30.4, 25.6, and 22.8 fantasy points versus the Wizards, Thunder, Celtics, and Pacers. All of this seems like a bargain for $5,200 on FanDuel.

Possible Value Plays

Amir Johnson is putting up decent fantasy production again. In his last four games he has managed to score over 30 fantasy ppg in three of them. The problem with Johnson is you never know if he will get the minutes by night's end. Although it seems like he is golden right now, prior to these last four games he had a terrible five-game stretch where he failed to score 10 fantasy points in four of them. The risk is high, the price is low, and the reward could be great. The matchup is less than favorable with the Raptors allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards which leaves this question, how much do you trust him?

Darrell Arthur, although a bit risky, is projected to start tonight facing a Sixers team allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. His price is cheap enough at $3,700 on FanDuel and he has managed to score over 30 fantasy points twice in the last six games versus the Wizards (30.3) and the Hornets (34.1). This is one of those plays that will either leave you jumping for joy or pissed off at me for suggesting him.

Center

Strategy

No matter how big the slate I have no trouble deciding who to use at center. The center position to me is much like the Order of the Sith in the Star Wars universe. There can be only two. Not to mention that the two centers provided fit into the price scheme to be used with the plays in my article.

Core Players

My gut is telling me tonight that DeAndre Jordan is due for a huge game. Not only do you get a late bullet to use, but the Warriors are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to centers. Jordan has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in five out of his last 10 games including a 56.5 fantasy point performance versus Dallas on March 7. His price is only $8,100 on FanDuel which I find well worth it tonight.

Mason Plumlee. Yes, Mason Plumlee. Not only is his price dirt cheap at $5,200 tonight but Zaza Pachulia is playing skeleton minutes opening the door for Dirk to slide over to center leaving Plumlee open to a rebound fest tonight. The matchup could be better with the Mavericks allowing the 16^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards but this scares me off little at his price point. Plumlee has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg now in four out of his last five going over the 30 mark versus the Spurs (30.1) and over 40 versus the same Mavericks team (42.8). Catch my drift here?

Possible Value Plays

Two nights in a row with crickets here. I just got the word that Boogie is not playing tonight so we might have some huge value here.

GO DODGERS!

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or you can email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com.