NBA DFS Position Coach: February 27, 2016

I have been reading the message boards a lot lately and in attempt to try and improve this article for you I have made some changes to it. I will be talking more strategy and giving you the strategy I am employing tonight at each position and why to try and help you improve your game. I am not going to lie to you although I am doing this today and plan on doing it each time my life is crazy with a wife and four kids and a few businesses. I get up earlier than most animals and sleep less than most humans on the planet. So once in awhile on the huge slates I may not be able to get as in depth as today where I have a quiet Saturday morning with no kids in the house and a smaller slate to run through my model. Phew. Let’s get moving.

One of the biggest disappointments in the DFS world is that night when you put up a monster score and finish 50^th out 144,508 and win $100. Although you are happy to have turned your small $2 entry amount into $100 you still are left feeling the payout should have been better for finishing ahead of 144,458 people. Here is the thing, I can almost guarantee you that when that monster night happened for you if you had entries in small single-entry GPPs you would have struck fantasy riches. I can tell you that for years I was that sucker who played in the $1, $2, $3, and $5 multi-entry GPPs. I can also tell you in all reality it took me until this season to finally accept the fact these tournaments are not that way. When trying to determine whether or not DFS is gambling or skill those huge multi-entry GPPs are basically like scratching tickets at the convenience store.

Now my strategy is to try to enter contests that are $10 or more with the lowest number of opponents I can find. On FanDuel it is a little trickier as it seems every time I find a small entry contest like the 1K Mini Slam where you have less than 50 entries when I go to join you still see, even in a 45 entry GPP, opponents with four or five entries. So basically you are forced to play in the large field single-entry GPPs to keep the playing field even. Something I think kind of sucks. FanDuel needs more contests for $10-to-$50 that are single-entry GPP with less than 50 entries in them. I believe they would be surprised how many of them they would fill.

Below is a list of GPPs on FanDuel I deem worthy of play. Keep in mind I only recommend that you play in these contests that are $10 and below if that is all your budget allows. You work with what you got.

All of these contests are single-entry and * denotes the top Jerry Colvin approved contests.

NBA Daily Freeroll ** (It is free, everyone should join.)

$1 NBA Dribbler

$1 NBA Mini Dribbler *

$2 NBA Block

$5 NBA Assist

$5 NBA Mini Assist *

$10 NBA Dime

$10 NBA Mini Dime *

$25 NBA And One *

$50 NBA Swish *

$50 NBA Mini Swish *

Of course as you go up in the entry amount your odds only get better. I stopped at $50 because I never play in the GPPs over that amount. Not because I do not want to but because my bankroll never gets high enough to risk playing in them. I make a withdrawal long before that. I have bills to pay. I hope this list above helps you in determining what contests to play in. In my next article I will give my list of contests for DraftKings.

So while I am patiently waiting for my next turns in the NFBC slow drafts and other Fantasy Baseball leagues I am currently partaking in I bring you today’s Position Coach Article.

Point Guard

Strategy

Tonight at point guard you will have no choice but to spend up at the position. Any of the first three below are excellent first choices to be paired with the three below them. You could also pair two of the first three together if you so choose but you will find yourself struggling to fit in some key players later on that are in my opinion necessary to building your core.

Players

So basically today both Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry are essentially the same player for DFS purposes. Their prices are similar, they both have that ability to drop 60 fantasy points with ease, and they both scored basically the same fantasy points on FanDuel in their last meeting (Westbrook 51.6, Curry 51.2). The matchups are similar with the Thunder allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg and the Warriors allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. So who you choose is all dependent on how you are going to construct your lineup with later. With this game having the highest expected point total I can remember at 234 and a close line with the Warriors being only three-point favorites I see no way you do not have one or the other tonight. It is possible to build a lineup with both but it requires a lot of love from the cheap Brooklyn players tonight who I plan on avoiding. I am at this time leaning towards the Westbrook-Durant combo tonight but only because my personal rule is to not combine Curry with Klay Thompson. It just seems like either one or the other goes off when I take them both but never the two of them together. Not saying it cannot happen it just has not happened to me.

If you want to be super contrarian tonight then take a look at Damian Lillard. With the whole DFS world going after Westbrook and Curry, like they should, Lillard should have low ownership tonight making him a prime GPP play if he goes crazy. In five out his last eight games Lillard has scored over 40 fantasy ppg going over the 50 mark twice versus the Raptors and Rockets, and he even put up over 70 versus the Warriors on Feb. 19. The Bulls are a mess, who knows what is going on with Derrick Rose, and they are allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the point guard position. All of this screams take Lillard, they are just yelling his name on a night where Westbrook and Curry are louder.

The player I plan on pairing with Westbrook tonight is Shelvin Mack. In a perfect example of the pricing being soft on FanDuel, tonight you can take a point guard for the near minimum at $3,700 who not only is playing near 30 minutes per game but also has a higher usage rate than Mike Conley, Ricky Rubio, Tony Parker, and Goran Dragic. Think about that one for a minute. Tonight the “Mack Daddy” as I have just dubbed him is facing a Brooklyn team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the point guard position. This game has the lowest expected point total of the night at 195 and the largest spread with Utah being 11-point favorites so we do have blowout risk here but I believe Mack will still get plenty of minutes and run regardless. There is no way no matter how wrong it feels I do not take him tonight. Fix this stuff FanDuel.

Jrue Holiday deserves serious consideration tonight for those of you looking for a possible monster night out of a player for a decent price. During baseball one of the things I look at is BVP or Batter Versus Pitcher. I do not weigh it heavily but I do give it some weight. I do the same thing in the NBA when I do my research. Before I spend my money I do want to at least know how a player did the last time he faced a team. It seems prudent. Well guess what? The last time Holiday faced the Timberwolves he scored a whopping 27 points with six rebounds and nine assists to tally a FanDuel score of 52.7 in a surprisingly low 28 minutes of play. These are numbers I cannot ignore. The Timberwolves are also allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to the point guard position and Holiday has scored over 40 fantasy ppg now in four of his last seven games. This game has the second highest expected point total of the evening at 217 and it is slated to be close with the Pelicans being only four-point favorites. Once again we have a prime play being overshadowed by the huge game looming between the Warriors and Thunder.

I can tell you now that most of my exposure is going to either Westbrook or Curry but I will have at least one lineup with no players from that game and it will include a Holiday or Lillard or both with no Mack Daddy.

Shooting Guard

Strategy

I see a lot of options at the shooting guard position tonight to save some money. Basically unless you want to spend up for James Harden, which I do not, than for the most part I prefer to use any of the players below to free up some salary for other players later on. In no way is the likes of Andrew Wiggins or C.J. McCollum bad plays, I just prefer to spend my money elsewhere tonight.

Players

The only shooting guard I would even consider paying up for tonight is Klay Thompson and only if I am not using Curry. Thompson has one of the highest usage rates on the slate among the starting shooting guards and prior to his lackluster evening versus the Magic on Feb. 25 where he failed to score 20 fantasy points he was averaging over 30 fantasy ppg over the previous three. The Thunder are allowing 21.7 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and Thompson is a great way to gain some high exposure to the huge expected point total up for grabs tonight. I plan on having at least three-to-four players in this game in my lineup.

Zach LaVine has been placed back on the bench but is still playing over 30 minutes per game. LaVine has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in nine out of his last 10 games scoring over 25 on several nights. He is fairly priced across the industry and is facing a Pelicans team allowing 21.9 ppg and the 17^th most fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position. He is a great way to gain some cheap exposure to the second highest expected game total of the evening for mere peanuts.

E’Twaun Moore was a huge let down last night after we all expected him to pick up some of the slack for Derrick Rose. Regardless he still has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six of his last eight even putting up over 30 fantasy points versus the Lakers on Feb. 21. Regardless of whether or not Rose plays tonight in anytime you get a player who is guaranteed to play heavy minutes for the most part this cheap is always a bonus. The Trail Blazers are allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position on the season and I will have some exposure to him tonight. The question is Moore, or less?

Have I ever mentioned how much I hate taking players from the Spurs? I mean I do not know how many times I referenced the fact that it seems most nights you watch the players you selected sit on the bench with a towel around their necks cheering on the bench players. Or, even worse you find out long after lineup lock your star small forward is going to sit that night. These are all the problems with NBA DFS and the Spurs seem to be in the center of it more often than not. Regardless of this negativity Danny Green is more than worth a look tonight. Even though taking him can cause you to chew your fingernails to a nub when you notice he only has 4.2 points at the end of the first he still is viable at his price when in the right matchup. The Rockets are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position and tonight San Antonio is only favored by 5.5 points in a game with a high 213 expected point total. Green has scored over 20 fantasy ppg now in six of his last 10 games even hitting the 30 mark twice versus the Heat and Kings. We have a few nice games to dabble in tonight and this is certainly one of them.

The next play is a boom or bust punt play with a ton of risk but I have a good feeling about it. Lance Stephenson has played over 20 minutes in four straight games and has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg in two of them. He is the minimum salary across the industry and tonight faces a Phoenix team allowing 22.6 ppg (third highest in NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. The Grizzlies have played three games in four nights and I cannot think of a better scenario facing a horrible team like the Suns than this to let the bench loose. Could be the play of the night or could get you 12 fantasy points.

Small Forward

Strategy

I am using the one expensive player one mid-priced to bargain basement player approach at SF tonight. I would have no objection to going expensive in both small forward slots to lock down an otherwise uncertain position tonight if that is how you want to go on FanDuel. It ultimately depends of course on who you are choosing to anchor your team with tonight.

Players

Much like my rule of not using Stephen Curry with Klay Thompson I have another rule that says whenever I use Russell Westbrook I also make sure to plug in Kevin Durant. Maybe it is just me but I always feel like when I insert these two players into my lineup together I have just all but guaranteed 100 fantasy points between the two of them. Durant has the highest usage rate among all small forwards on the slate and tonight could have a better matchup with the Warriors allowing the 12^th fewest fantasy ppg to the three. Durant has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in four of his last 10 games with the majority being over the 40 mark. The last time Durant faced the Warriors he dominated scoring 40 points with 14 rebounds to put up over 60 fantasy points. I would not care tonight if he was $12,000 on FanDuel, I would have found a way to fit him in.

If you feel like Durant comes at too high of a price but still want to try and get that player who can put up 40 fantasy points then the next-best option tonight after Durant is Kawhi Leonard. He has scored over 40 fantasy points now in four of his last five and tonight could not get a better matchup facing a Rockets team allowing 21.1 ppg (third highest in NBA) and the third most fantasy ppg as well to the three. He has the third highest usage rate among small forwards on the slate and in a perfect world you could pair him with Durant and I may just try, it’s early yet.

Tobias Harris is playing at PF tonight for Detroit but FanDuel has him at SF and he has been putting up great numbers for his price point across the industry. Harris is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg in his last three and tonight faces a Bucks team allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. He is a great option tonight to pair with either of the two above.

Matt Barnes was a real dud last night. After his monster performance versus the Lakers in the previous game where he scored over 30 fantasy points myself like most expected a similar performance. Tonight he gets another shot facing a team that defends the three even worse…the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are allowing 21.4 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the MOST fantasy ppg to the three on the season. Barnes has 30 fantasy point upside and not only scores but gets rebounds as well. It all comes down to minutes and I remind you again this is the third Grizzlies game in four days so you could have some tired legs.

Either Doug McDermott or Mike Dunleavy are viable punt options tonight for the minimum to near minimum salary across the industry. Dunleavy has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three straight while McDermott has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three out of his last four even hitting the 30 mark versus the Raptors on Feb. 19. Of the two I prefer McDermott but they both have a less than favorable matchup with the Trail Blazers allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to the three on the season. Boom or bust here, use at your own risk.

Power Forward

Strategy

I find this position tonight in the free-for-all range with viable players at all price points. A lot of how you spend at this position will be determined on whether or not you spend up at center tonight. Which we will get to. At the moment I am taking the same balanced approach of one more expensive player and one mid-priced player in the right match up.

Players

The only player you can spend up for tonight who pretty much guarantees you 40 fantasy points is Anthony Davis. Well it may seem horrible to get only 40 fantasy points out of him (which is more than unlikely) he also at night's end will more than likely be the highest scoring power forward on the slate. If you can balance your second selection well even Anthony Davis not achieving value could be the best option and I also suspect his ownership level will be horribly low due to a horrible matchup. The Timberwolves are allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg to the power forward position but Davis does have the highest usage rate on the slate for power forwards and has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in four straight including a monster game versus Detroit on Feb. 21 where he scored in incredible 59-points with 20 rebounds for 89 fantasy points on FanDuel. I am not sure if I will have any exposure to him myself but make no mistake he has the highest upside.

If you wanted to pivot off of Davis but still get some exposure to this game then Ryan Anderson in his last matchup with the Timberwolves off the bench scored 26 points and put up over 30 fantasy points. His price is cheap and well worth the flyer, especially in GPPs tonight.

Draymond Green gave us such high expectations for a while that unless we get 50 fantasy points out of him we feel cheated. At least I do. Here is another example of a high caliber player in a horrible matchup but in a game with a huge expected point total. So what do you do? Well, if you can afford him you play him. There is a bevy of power forwards on the slate tonight so sifting through them is a little harder than the other positions. I literally counted nine starting power forwards tonight that are viable plays. That is not counting the bench players. So if you are paying you need to go for upside and Draymond Green is a player who has that ability to put a triple-double on the board in under 30 minutes of tough play, like we expect tonight. This game is going to be a back-and-forth shootout and I cannot think of a better player to have in your frontcourt during it than Green.

On FanDuel Gorgui Dieng regardless of playing time remains in the power forward slot. COME ON FANDUEL, GET IT TOGETHER! Anyway, the New Orleans Pelicans are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the center position and Dieng in his last 10 games has been able to score over 30 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games including one versus the same Pelicans team. His price is fair and on sites where he is PROPERLY located in the center slot he is the top play.

Jabari Parker. What was that? Jabari Parker. Who? Jabari Parker. What? Jabari Parker. You get my drift? He continues to get it done now scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in five straight. His price is not moving and as long as that is the case neither am I. I see little choice but to keep riding the hot hand at this price point and he will be the only exposure I will have to the Milwaukee offense tonight.

I am not going to lie, I kind of feel like I am a day late and a dollar short on this play but Mirza Teletovic has been red hot. I have been watching but my fear of getting five fantasy points out of him the night I break down has kept me away. So, with that being said because I finally am going to sanction playing him tonight he will stink it up. Call it a gut feeling. The thing is when you have a player that has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in five straight hitting both the 30 mark and 40 mark once for under $5K, you take him into consideration. It would be imprudent to do otherwise.

Center

Strategy

I will be running two, maybe three lineups tops tonight on FanDuel. I usually determine the amount of lineups I actually play by the number of centers I like. I understand that makes no sense but the center to me when building a lineup is like the anchor. Before I start checking point guards the first thing I do is see what roughly I need to makes sure I have left to spend at the end on my center. There is nothing worse than plugging in them guys you want to find yourself with $4,600 left at the end and the only center in sight is Alexis Ajinca.

Players

Do you know who scored 11 points, 17 rebounds, with two blocks, and one assist versus the Chicago Bulls in his last game? If you guessed my man Mason Plumlee you are 100 percent correct. As always he is one of my favorite plays to use in a great matchup as he rarely has let me down when using him in such situations. He has scored over 20 fantasy points in three of his last four with one going over the 30 mark versus the Jazz who by the way allow the third fewest fantasy ppg to the center position. Tonight he faces a tired, beat up, and downright pathetic Bulls team allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to the center position. Pau Gasol will be playing his third game in four nights and at his age he has to be getting worn out. Not to mention the recent flu he has been battling. I say Plumlee tames the Bulls tonight to the tune of over 30 fantasy points.

The only center I would pay up for tonight is Karl-Anthony Towns and I do plan on doing exactly that in my secondary GPP lineup. Towns is coming off a bad game which should drive his ownership down due to recency bias and with so many other expensive players worth rostering most DFS players will be looking to save at the center position tonight. Prior to his last game Towns had scored more than 50 fantasy points in two of his last five with one 40 point game thrown in for good measure. The matchup is right in the middle with the Pelicans allowing the 15^th fewest fantasy ppg to the power forward position but he is not a middle-of-the-road player by any means and has the fourth highest usage rate among power forwards on the slate.

Last but not least I like both Enes Kanter and Steven Adams tonight although I am not terribly fond of the moustaches. The last time I saw moustaches like that it usually involved some funky music, a lonely housewife, and a cable guy. And FIY, they did not play basketball.

Both Kanter and Adams put up both put up decent games the last time they faced Golden State scoring 32.5 and 25.1 fantasy points respectively on FanDuel. Both of their prices are below the $5K mark making them excellent punt plays. I prefer Kanter but would not be terribly upset if Adams was all that I could afford. Keep in mind with both of these guys you have huge risk.

Core Players

Cash Game Lineup: Russell Westbrook, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Kawhi Leonard.

GPP Lineup: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Good luck tonight and yes on this slate is possible to throw out a few cash games. I am.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

GO DODGERS!