NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 31, 2015

Can you believe it is already New Year’s Eve? It really feels like we just did this last year. Christmas is over, we survived Thanksgiving, we kept the creeps away at Halloween, now we just have to watch an Apple drop and a baby be born and we move on to some normality in our lives.

I heard a radio host say today that anyone who says Basketball is the sport with the least amount of variance is a moron. I believe that was the exact quote. He even invited anyone who disagreed to come on his show and he would shred them. You see I know this guy, I have hung out with this guy, and I actually really like this guy. Although I am a firm believer in DFS NBA being the easiest sport to play he did make some fine points. As far as being able to determine exactly if you can pull sound facts to argue either way I am unsure. I will say this, though, I find it much easier to predict Russell Westbrook putting up 50 fantasy points than I do predicting Eric Hosmer hitting a home run. Perhaps I am attributing my high cash rate at playing DFS Basketball to a lack of variance as opposed to my actual skill. Perhaps we will revisit this subject next year, he got me thinking.

We have a nice six-game slate tonight with some big guys to choose from which always makes things more fun. I do not see the need tonight or much upside in any of the low value plays on the board unless they have a price that has not yet reflected their recent performance. With all this said I give to you my final Position Coach article of 2015.

It has been a great year and you guys really are the greatest subscribers. The amount of well wishes I received from the FantasyAlarm community during my hospital stay really put it into perspective why I do this. Thank you and Happy New Year!

Point Guard

You know who is amazing? Chris Paul. In the last 10 games he has scored more than 40 fantasy points eight times going over 50 once versus Oklahoma City. He also, in the last five games, has three double-doubles and has been a scoring machine with Blake Griffin out. Tonight the Clippers get the Pelicans who are allowing 24 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. New Orleans is three-point favorites so we have little in the way of predicted blowout risk and this game has the second highest expected point total of the night at 207, making Paul the first guy I am plugging into my cash game lineup.

I am not sure I can make this claim yet as it is early but I really want to pair Paul with Russell Westbrook tonight in my cash games. The problem is some of the other positions are thin tonight at the lower-priced tier so the firepower you take from there to put into the PG position could be a waist with several other viable options able to give you over 30 fantasy points. I know this sounds confusing but in my crazy head filled with Golem, Snap, Crackle, Pop, and the Green Martian guy from Bugs Bunny it makes perfects sense.

Westbrook has been a constant producer, scoring over 50 fantasy points in four of his last five games. The Suns are a mess and also are allowing the most points (24.1 ppg) and third most fantasy ppg to point guards. Even if it is a blowout I cannot see Westbrook getting less than 45 fantasy points which is a statement I will not make about many.

I would not try to go cheap at PG tonight. The cheaper options, in my opinion, all have ceilings so low even those little elves in my head would bump their noggins.

One guy who scores high in my model, and I will more than likely move onto if my Westbrook-Paul combo will not go, is Reggie Jackson. No, not the guy who once and awhile did an appearance on the Baseball Bunch, but the basketball player. This is one of those nights where I am trying to lock down consistency in my lineup and Jackson is all that. In the last 10 games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg seven times even scoring over 55 points twice in that span. When he gets hot he is unstoppable. His price is fair across the industry and tonight he gets the Timberwolves who are allowing 23.3 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to point guards. If he keeps playing like this he might get a candy bar named after him.

With Eric Bledsoe out we have little in the way of doubt that Brandon Knight does not get a huge boost. In the last five games he has scored over 25 fantasy ppg four times going over 35 twice. The Thunder are allowing 22.1 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season opening the door for a pretty good night.

Shooting Guard

If Stephen Curry sits tonight (calf) then Klay Thompson once again becomes the top play at the SG position on the slate. Basically last night they gave up but I cannot imagine them giving up two nights in a row, can you? He has huge upside on a small slate and tonight faces a Rockets team allowing 20.6 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. We do have better matchups on the board, which is why he is the top option only if Curry sits.

I am usually not a fan of sequels. Most of the time I find they leave me empty and unfulfilled. I am going to check out The Chronicles of J.J. Redick Part Two tonight. Last night, he had the night I hoped for and with Griffin out he still should see an increased usage rate. He is easily scoring over 20 fantasy ppg on a nightly basis and has even scored over 30 twice in the last ten games. Tonight he faces a Pelicans team that is allowing 22.7 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. The ticket price is low and this should be a great movie.

I really would like to see at least 65 fantasy points tonight out of the SG slot in my lineup. One guy who could help guide the way is Monta Ellis. He has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg in four straight going over 35 in two of them. If I end up pulling off of Thompson I can tell you I will be taking a strong look at the thought of getting 30 fantasy points out of Ellis tonight facing a Milwaukee team allowing over 20 ppg to shooting guards.

When I was a kid I hated that movie Flash Gordon. Maybe that is why I do not like Alex Gordon on the Royals or Eric Gordon on the Pelicans. It also seems that every now and then Gordon will help your bankroll go away in flash. Prior to his three fantasy point debacle a few nights ago versus Orlando, Gordon had posted five straight games where he scored more than 20 fantasy points while putting up over 36 in 40 minutes versus the Rockets the day after Christmas. I would not use him outside of GPP.

Small Forward

Both the SF and PF positions tonight I find extremely challenging. How you spend at the PG position is going to heavily determine the outcome of what you end up getting out of these spots for points. I am already seeing my dream of running the Westbrook-Paul stack go to the wayside unless I am willing to go bargain basement somewhere which I am not. At least not in cash games.

Without a doubt the top play at the position is Kevin Durant. He has scored more than 45 fantasy ppg in three straight and over 50 once. He easily scores over 20 ppg and tonight gets the Suns who are allowing 20.6 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards.

Paul George is the next play tonight at the position with the highest upside after Durant. I am still waiting for George to have that monster game and tonight he is in a great spot to get it. The Bucks are allowing 20.9 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. In the last 10 games, George has failed to hit the 40 fantasy point mark even though he is capable. Better for GPP than cash.

Khris Middleton is playing at SG but FanDuel has him at SF. This is fortunate for us as our options are thin in my opinion. In the last five games Middleton has scored more than 40 fantasy three times. The last versus Oklahoma City. Tonight he is facing a Pacers team allowing 20.3 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. I have him in my cash game lineup already to go.

And so my little friend Gary the Gnu has returned to the forefront of my mental battleground in the form of Al-Farouq Aminu. On my quest to find the possibility of 30 fantasy points I have landed on the front door step of the Gnu Aminu. The simple fact he scored over 30 fantasy points in his last game versus the Nuggets puts a little ray of hope in my world of swirling Gnu’s and other assorted creatures that have nothing to do with DFS.  It may be a lot to ask but he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three of the last four and tonight is a great late bullet facing a tough Utah team. I know this sounds crazy but someone has to score. Otherwise it will be Utah 97 Portland 0. I do not believe that has ever happened.

Power Forward

Draymond Green is the guy I am choosing to spend up on tonight in cash games. Last night was a bit abnormal so I am putting it aside for now. Green has scored more than 50 fantasy points three times and forty fantasy points three times in the last 10 games. We can also throw in a 60 versus the Celtics in a 50 minute fantasy goldmine. Green gives you triple-double potential on a nightly basis and on this night just happens to be facing the Houston Rockets who allow the most points in the NBA (23.9 ppg) and the most fantasy ppg to power forwards. I expect him and Thompson to have huge bounce back games tonight.

Well the other big dog to spend on if you so choose to is Anthony Davis. Davis gets you near 50 fantasy points on most nights and should see plenty of them tonight facing a Clippers team minus Blake Griffin. This one could end up being the highest scoring game of the night and I will have some exposure to Davis in GPP play.

Jon Leuer is one of the few cheapies tonight at the PF position I am comfortable with, even though the matchup is not the greatest. The Thunder are allowing 20.6 ppg to power forwards which by power forward standards is decent but they are also only allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg. In the last four games Leuer has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg twice with one near miss. I have to save somewhere and he is probably the best option.

The other guy I am looking at to save a few bucks but maybe grab myself 30 fantasy points for cheap is Ersan Ilyasova. Ilysova has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg four times in the last 10 and should get enough minutes tonight to get the same from the Timberwolves. None of the cheapies are completely safe...that is why they are cheap. Ilysova does however have promise.

Center

DeAndre Jordan scores the highest in my model today at the center position and with good reason. The Pelicans are allowing 21.2 ppg and most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. Jordan in the last seven games has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg six times going over 40 once. Although Andre Drummond is a fine play any night for the price if you are spending up go air Jordan.

Originally I was on Enes Kanter tonight but my gut tells me he is due for a flop. His matchup is tough and price is coming up a little with the amazing things he has been doing. Instead I am looking at Jeff Withey. I know it is early and the sample is small but in the last two games playing over 20 minutes he has scored more than 30 fantasy points. Tonight he is facing a Portland team allowing a whopping 22.5 ppg to centers and 26^th most fantasy ppg as well. I am not going to lie, I might use him in my cash games. I just have to convince myself he will hit 30 tonight. Giant question mark.

If you do not want to take the Withey risk but still want to save then take a look at Andrew Bogut. Although the numbers are inconsistent tonight he has a great matchup facing a Houston team allowing 20.1 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to centers.

Sorry guys. I am playing it safe tonight. There are tons of risky plays abound all that I will be fading. Good luck and Happy New Year.