NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 21, 2015

This is my lone DFS NBA position coach of the week, so allow me to say Merry Christmas to everyone in the extended FantasyAlarm family. There is no better present than a DFS win, and I absolutely love Monday’s slate. There are strong plays at every price point, especially in the backcourt. While I am probably going with mostly midpriced guys along with one or two punt plays, you could easily fill out a nice stars-and-scrubs lineup, if that is your thing. There is something for everyone in this slate.

Point Guard

I think I am filling the point guard position last in most of my lineups. There are players I like at every price point, and with the possible exception of John Wall, I like them all about evenly. I feel like however much money I have at the end, I can plug in a point guard I feel good about, and that is not true at most of the other positions.

It will probably be a long time before I trust him for cash games, but Derrick Rose proved on Friday he is still capable of having huge games, and he is in a good spot to do so again Monday. The Nets have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and they are on the road for the second half of a back-to-back.

John Wall, on the other hand, is far more safe, though you obviously have to pay more for him. The Kings are one of just four NBA teams who play faster than the Wizards, and Wall should get a lot of minutes and shots with Bradley Beal out and Otto Porter potentially missing his second straight game. Ramon Sessions should see increased minutes as well, and he is a great bet to outperform his price.

The Rockets are right behind the Kings in points allowed per game, and Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin should be responsible for much of Charlotte’s scoring in this game. The Hornets play them together quite a bit, and you probably can too, at least in cash games.

Ty Lawson will serve the second game of his two-game suspension Monday, and Jason Terry missed Sunday’s practice due to personal reasons. Patrick Beverley is a fine play anyway—especially on FanDuel—as none of Charlotte’s point guards are known for their defense, but he would be a near must-play with both Lawson and Terry out.

Shooting Guard

The hardest part of constructing your DFS lineup Monday may be deciding which Kings and Wizards to start. Shooting guard is probably the best place to do it, since the options are all relatively cheap and they have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. As a whole, I am either paying for one of the top three shooting guards, or I am going super cheap. This is especially true for GPPs, where there are several cheap shooting guards with good matchups who could easily drop 20 points in 20 minutes if things go well.

Of the Kings and Wizards options, Garrett Temple stands out. He likely earned another start after scoring a season-high 21 points in 35 minutes Saturday. Temple could see fewer minutes if Gary Neal gets hot, which wouldn’t be surprising considering the Kings have allowed the second-most three pointers in the NBA. While Temple is worth starting in all DFS formats, Neal is more of a GPP play.

Ben McLemore is a GPP play as well. He will probably only play 20 minutes, but he should get some open threes, and it is worth a shot to see if he can knock them down.

The Nets are even worse against opposing shooting guards than against point guards, and Butler is far more consistent than Derrick Rose. Butler is a relatively safe alternative for anyone who doesn’t want to pay up for James Harden in cash games.  

The Jazz have allowed the fewest points to opposing shooting guards this season, but they are a completely different team defensively since Rudy Gobert went down. This should be a pretty high-scoring game, and Bledsoe is the only Phoenix player you can completely trust.

James Harden is like a more expensive version of Eric Bledsoe. I like the matchup, but can’t find anybody else I really feel great about starting. Marcus Thornton is another GPP option who is capable of scoring in bunches, and the price is right on DraftKings.

Small Forward

The small forward position is quite similar to shooting guard Monday, with quality at the top and the bottom and not much in between. The biggest difference is while I am willing to pay for the three most expensive shooting guards, I’m far more interested in the second tier of small forwards.

Rudy Gay, Gordon Hayward and Nicolas Batum are all pretty consistent and all have favorable matchups. Hayward is probably the safest of the group, and Gay probably has the most upside, but I am fine playing whichever one or two are cheapest on a given site.

Kelly Oubre got the start Sunday and played 22 minutes with Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. out. He is awfully cheap for a lottery pick starting for such an up-tempo offense.  Jared Dudley played 41 minutes in that game, and while he can probably thank Oubre’s foul trouble for some of those minutes, he did have his best game of the season. Dudley should play heavy minutes yet again, and the Kings are second in the NBA in opponent’s three-pointers.

T.J. Warren may not have the upside of Oubre or Dudley, but he is probably safer, and should provide a nice value. Warren has double-digit points in four consecutive games, averaging 14.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.0 steals over that span.

Power Forward

I can’t remember the last time I had so much trouble finding power forwards for my DFS lineup. I strongly recommend you fill your power forward spot(s) first, or else you could have to plug in somebody pretty terrible at that spot. With that in mind, I’m also paying up for somebody I actually trust, especially in cash games. I’m not going to subject myself to Kyle O’Quinn or Donatas Motiejunas. I’m just not.

The one cheap power forward I would consider Monday is David Lee, but only if Amir Johnson is out. Lee is reportedly on the trading block, and if Johnson’s plantar fasciitis keeps him out it would certainly behoove the Celtics to give Lee heavy minutes to prove he can still play.

DeMarcus Cousins should benefit from a fast pace as much as anybody in the Kings-Wizards game, and there are certainly enough cheap options at the other positions to find room for him in your budget.

Derrick Favors has failed to score in double digits just once since Rudy Gobert went out, and I expect him to bounce back against the Suns and their rotation of mediocre big men.

Portland has struggled against big men, especially power forwards, all season. Paul Millsap is as consistent as they come, and it is hard to imagine Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee, Noah Vonleh or Meyers Leonard slowing him down at all.

Center

Sometimes the most obvious play is also the correct one. The most obvious play for DFS is playing whichever center is facing the Bulls. On Monday, that honor goes to Brook Lopez, and he is a great play on DraftKings and FantasyFeud.

On FanDuel, I’m probably going with Al Horford over Lopez, unless I have an extra $700 I can’t spend elsewhere. The Trail Blazers are nearly as bad against opposing bigs as the Bulls.

Speaking of the Bulls, I feel dirty for even considering Andrea Bargnani, but is there any reason to believe the Bulls will be any better against him than they are against Brook Lopez? Perhaps more importantly, Bargnani has double-digit points in all six games since returning from a hamstring injury, averaging 13.2 points and 4.5 rebounds over that span. He is a great value on DraftKings.