NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: November 18, 2015

Tuesday nights are not my finer ones as of late. I play in a dart league, something I assure I am horrible at. The problem is when you own a bar you have to do things to keep the business up on the slow nights. Pool leagues, dart leagues, pitch leagues, etc. are all ways to get customers in on them Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights where it tends to be slower. Now and again in order to have enough people to fill a team I have to bite the bullet and join one. This happens quite often with darts. So once again I find myself wishing I could play fantasy darts and not the real life version while I stand by watching my fellow competitor nail shot after shot (I think you call it shooting? Right?) while I frantically try and keep up with last minute “value” that pops up by constantly checking my phone.

It’s almost lineup lock and I see Tiago Splitter is still starting at center with Al Horford in the PF position. My first thought is this, if I take Splitter for the minimum I can upgrade to Anthony Davis and have both him and Stephen Curry in my lineup. The way my mind thinks is like this, if Splitter plays 30 minutes tonight he can put up 25 fantasy points. So I did it. I said goodbye to Karl-Anthony Towns and said welcome to Tiago Splitter. I told Kevin Love, although I do love him most nights, my wallet loves Anthony Davis more. You see where I am going with this? The end result was a grumpy Jerry who settled for a bacon cheeseburger from a horrible fast food place and bad dreams about DFS. Meanwhile yours truly has increased his losing streak to four nights, something I do not find sustainable.

So tonight we have a full slate with tons of value and some must-play superstars. The great thing about DFS is every day is a new day. Davis is hurt, that’s fine, and I have the option of using someone else. So let’s win some money!

Point Guard

If there is one guy tonight you have to absolutely build your lineup around in cash games it is Russell Westbrook. Here is an amazing stat: he has eight double-doubles in 11 games. In his last game versus Memphis he put up 40 points with 14 assists and he is averaging over 51 fantasy points per game. With no Kevin Durant and the Pelicans allowing the most points to the PG position in the NBA, you have to spend up on Westbrook. I am.

Another fellow who is absolutely getting it done on a nightly basis is Damian Lillard. He is averaging over 25 points and seven assists per game right now and over 40 fantasy ppg. Tonight he is facing a Houston team allowing the 24^th-most points to the PG position. If you are that guy who preaches Westbrook cannot achieve “value” tonight then Lillard is your next step down.

I kind of almost feel like I am cheating but the next two guys rank the same today in my model. Rajon Rondo with DeMarcus Cousins back is more than likely going to lose some shots which will drag his ppg down. The positive is he will still be an absolute assist machine and can still score 10 points to go along with it on a nightly basis. I believe his price is a little inflated still and his matchup isn’t great but he will reach value tonight putting up 35-to-40 points.

The other guy that ties with Rondo tonight is Emmanuel Mudiay. His price remains low and tonight he is facing the Spurs who are allowing the 28^th-most points to the PG position. With Mudiay averaging over 26 fantasy ppg he offers double-double potential in points and assists on a nightly basis.

If you can afford Rondo play him, if you like the upgrade somewhere else by going Mudiay then play him. I will have some exposure to both of them tonight in cash and GPP play.

Even though the Hawks played last night as long as Dennis Schroder draws the start, and I see no reason why he will not, I will be going back to the well. I am not going to lie, last night he started really slow and I was starting to get nervous but by night's end he put up eight points, 10 assists, and five rebounds in 29 minutes of play. The Kings are below average versus the PG position and he should see plenty of minutes again tonight, making him a great “value” play.

Shooting Guard

With the upside and the price below $10,000 on FanDuel James Harden is almost impossible not to take into serious consideration. He has underperformed thus far and if you ask this DFS writer he is way overdue for his first triple-double of the season. He is averaging 43 fantasy ppg and easily scores over 20 points on most nights. He isn’t a must play but if you ignore him you might get burned.

Eric Gordon tonight, with Anthony Davis all banged up, is a must play. He is averaging over 19 points and 27 fantasy points ppg with a few assists and rebounds thrown in. This game has an expected point total of 213 and the Thunder are allowing the 29^th-most points to the SG position on the season. I am all in on Gordon tonight in my cash games for sure.

If you want to look elsewhere Eric Bledsoe is a safe play but for the price I believe the two guys above are better options. He is, however, averaging 25 points, five rebounds, four assists, and over 38 fantasy ppg. The Bulls are allowing the 22^nd-most points to the position and this gives you that late bullet in your lineup if you like that kind of thing. I do and I will have limited exposure to Bledsoe tonight in GPP play.

C.J. McCollum is in a position tonight to score a lot points. The Rockets are allowing the 21^st-most points to the SG position in a game where Portland is a six-point underdog with an expected point total nearing 210. His price remains fair across the industry even though he is averaging over 28 fantasy ppg and can easily put up 35 tonight.

For the price this could be the night to plug in Rodney Hood. The problem I usually have with him is if he doesn’t score 20 points you get little out of him. This is one of those nights where that 20-point mark with a few assists and steals is possible for a dirt cheap price across the industry. With Toronto 19^th at defending the SG, Hood could provide you with the extra savings to load up in a stars and scrubs GPP lineup. He scored 20 versus Atlanta on Sunday, why not again tonight?

A few guys I like are Evan Fournier, who has been battling illness but is a great play if he starts, and Kyle Korver who should continue to see plenty of minutes facing a Kings team allowing the 24^th-most points to the SG position.

Small Forward

Paul George tonight is playing at PF even though FanDuel has him at SF, making him the top play at the position. George is becoming almost a must play, scoring more than 20 points in eight straight games with four double-doubles and two near misses. Tonight he is facing the Sixers who are allowing the 28^th-most points to the PF position, making George a top contender for your budget tonight.

The next best guy tonight after George is Nicolas Batum who is actually at SG tonight but slotted at SF. The Nets are allowing the 26^th-most points to the SG position on the season and Batum is averaging over 16 points, six rebounds, and 29 fantasy ppg. If you want to spend up then he is worth looking at.

Value abounds, and the one guy I am going to be using is Al-Farouq Aminu. He is averaging almost 13 points and seven rebounds per game and is coming off a 17-point performance versus the Spurs on Monday night. Tonight he gets to face the Nets who are allowing the 28^th-most points to the position and I am counting on him to hit the 30 mark fantasy-wise. Loving me some Aminu tonight.

C.J. Miles is not a guy I take often. As a matter of fact I barely look at him. Tonight he is hard to ignore. Twice in the last four games he has scored almost 20 points (17 and 19). Tonight he is facing the Sixers, who are allowing the second-most points to the SF position on the season. I am hoping for 25 fantasy points from Miles tonight and will be using him in a limited fashion.

If you want to get some more late exposure one guy who is jumping out in my model is T.J. Warren. He is averaging around 22 minutes per game off the bench and should see plenty tonight facing a Bulls defense allowing the 25^th-most points to the SF position. He put up 19 points versus the Lakers on Monday and I cannot imagine why he will not match that or better tonight.

A few others who just missed the cut were Gordon Hayward, who is a great value but not in a great matchup, and, if he starts, Thabo Sefolosha facing the Kings who are allowing the 23^rd-most points to the position.

Power Forward

This position is full of value everywhere tonight and I have to tell you it did not make my job any easier. One thing that did come easy was finding my first cash game play at this position and he is Thaddeus Young. Not only is Young averaging over 29 fantasy ppg his price is only $5,800 on FanDuel. He has had three double-doubles in his last five games and is facing a Hornets team allowing the 29^th-most points to the PF position.

If you want to spend up then Paul Millsap could have a monster night. He is averaging over 17 points, eight rebounds, and 36 fantasy ppg and he is facing a Kings team allowing the 22^nd-most points to the PF position on the season. With the Hawks banged up, Millsap is going to see plenty of action in a close game (-4 ATL) with a high expected point total (210) making him a great cash and GPP play.

With Anthony Davis being made of porcelain I am taking a huge look at Ryan Anderson tonight. The Thunder allow their fair share of points to the PF position and when Anderson is given the opportunity he produces. He is averaging over 26 fantasy ppg and if Davis is a no-go he becomes pretty much a must play in cash games.

I know it is hard to rank a guy fourth who is averaging 15 points and almost 10 rebounds per game but the truth is, price is all that drives LaMarcus Aldridge down tonight. He is a top play on any night but I think the money is best spent elsewhere. He does, however, make a great GPP play in a game where the Spurs are supposed to dominate.

Dwight Powell has played 26 minutes in two straight games while scoring 20 points, 17 rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and two steals. He is also averaging over 23 fantasy ppg for the low price on FanDuel of $4,600 and you could get some major production in a game with a 205 expected point total.

A few others to look at are Serge Ibaka facing a Pelicans team ranked 20^th versus the PF position, Terrence Jones, who is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in what should be a shootout, and, last but not least, for a GPP play-only Jon Leuer if he draws the start for the near minimum salary.

Center

Much like yesterday, with so much value across the board I find it unnecessary to try and save a fortune on the center position today. If you can afford him then DeMarcus Cousins is without a doubt the top play tonight at the position. He has scored over 30 points in three-out-of-four games with three double-doubles. Tonight he faces the Hawks who are allowing the most points in the NBA to the center position. Hard not to try and fit him in with this information at your fingertips.

If you can’t afford Boogie then take a look at Dwight Howard. He is averaging 15 points, 12 rebounds, and almost 35 fantasy ppg facing a Portland team allowing the 29^th-most points to the center position on the season. Despite the woes the Trail Blazers will try and cause in the lane, I expect Howard to dominate tonight and he makes a great cash and GPP play.

Al Horford continues to get it done for the Hawks. He had 18 points last night and is averaging over 17 on the season. The Kings are allowing the 26^th-most points to the position but some of these were accumulated while Boogie was on hiatus, making the defensive ranking questionable. For the price you still cannot go wrong on Horford tonight in a game that should be quite a high-scoring affair.

The guy I will be using for sure in several lineups tonight is Jahlil Okafor. If I had a nickel for every time I should have took him for the price I would have exactly 45 cents. Nine games this season he has put up great numbers and tonight should continue to do so versus a Pacers team allowing their portion of points to the position. With Okafor averaging over 19 points and seven rebounds per game I will be using him in cash and GPP.

As always I will be back later or you can hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73.