NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: November 14, 2015

Saturday seems like kind of an unusual day. It feels like every team is either playing on 2-plus days of rest, or on the second night of a back-to-back. There aren’t a ton of games, so some exceptions have to be made, but when possible, I’m looking to rested home teams for my DFS lineups.

Point Guard

There are five guards from one game in today’s edition of the Position Coach, and it is mostly due to one injury. Chris Paul is doubtful for Saturday’s game, and that makes Pablo Prigioni the cheap point guard play of the day. Prigioni had six points, four rebounds, three assists and three steals with Paul out Thursday, and even that modest stat line is worth his tiny price.

Perhaps more importantly, Reggie Jackson should have no problem getting any shot he wants against Prigioni.  Jackson isn’t the most efficient cat around, but he has thrived under Stan Van Gundy.

John Wall averaged 19.2 ppg with three or more days of rest last season, and he averaged 18.8 ppg against the Magic.

The Houston Rockets do not have a real point guard outside of Patrick Beverley and Ty Lawson, and Beverley seems unlikely to play after suffering an ankle injury Friday night. Lawson was awful Friday night, but the Rockets can’t bench him, and he seems like a good bet to bounce back against a Dallas team that has four point guards who cannot defend. 

Shooting Guard

Last week my buddy Marty asked if I find myself not paying for shooting guard most days, and the answer is yes. Outside of James Harden, all of my shooting guard plays are relatively cheap. The reason I like Harden, despite the bevy of cheap options at his position, is Dallas’ complete lack of rim protection. Only three teams are allowing opponents to shoot a higher percentage within five feet than the Dallas Mavericks, and we all know Harden can get into the paint and wreak havoc.

J.J. Redick is likely to miss Saturday’s game along with Chris Paul, which should lead to more minutes for Austin Rivers and more shots for Jamal Crawford. Crawford is the safer play, but Rivers is a bit cheaper, and probably a bit more likely to come out of nowhere with a 25-point game.

On the other side of the ball, I don’t think any of the Clippers' healthy shooting guards can slow down Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He has at least 15 points in four consecutive games, and I like his chances at making it five in-a-row.

Gary Neal started for the Wizards with Bradley Beal out Tuesday, and Neal scored a season-high 14 points in 26 minutes. He probably isn’t going to do much more than that, but at his price, I will gladly take double-digit points.

With Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobili both questionable, the Spurs may not have a choice but to play Danny Green 40 minutes Saturday. Green has struggled from the field this season, but he went 4-for-6 from the field Friday, so maybe a breakout is coming.

Small Forward

Last season, Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.3 blocks against the Cavaliers. All of those numbers were better than his season averages. Now he gets to take on the Cavs at home, on two days rest, while Cleveland plays the second game of a back-to-back.

I thought it was really interesting to look at the chart below and see Tobias Harris cost so much less than Giannis on FanDuel and especially DraftKings, but cost more on FantasyFeud. That means somebody is underpriced somewhere, and I think it is Harris. In each of his last two games, Harris has played 37 minutes and delivered a double-double. If Victor Oladipo is out again, look for Harris to produce for the third straight game.

He didn’t come anywhere close to matching his 20-point outburst from Monday, but it was nice to see Stanley Johnson play 27 minutes against the Kings Wednesday. If he is going to continue to play more than 25 minutes per game, he will produce for fantasy more often than not.

Otto Porter has at least 14 points in four of his last five games, and if Bradley Beal his out, I like his chances of reaching that threshold again.

Power Forward

You have to spend your money somewhere, and with a few notable exceptions, I’m spending most of it at power forward. I could make a compelling case for all of the top power forwards Saturday, but I will try to limit myself to just a few.

We didn’t really get to see it Thursday because he was ejected in the second quarter, but I expect Blake Griffin to carry the load for the Clippers with Chris Paul likely out yet again. Look for Griffin to create for himself and for his teammates, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he puts up a triple-double.

Greg Monroe gets the Cavaliers at home on two days rest, while Cleveland plays the second half of a back-to-back. He will likely spend most of the game matched up with Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, and he should be able to get his shot whenever he wants.

Channing Frye’s upside is limited, unless he gets hot and makes a bunch of threes, but he started Friday and played 23 minutes with Victor Oladipo out. If he starts again, he will be a solid play at a low price.

I don’t trust Kevin Love for cash games, and I’m not sure I will while Lebron James is healthy, but he is as capable of getting 25 and 15 as anybody. He is worth a shot in a GPP, especially if he is going to be matched up with Greg Monroe for much of the game.

Center

I am really excited to watch Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan battle it out in the paint Saturday. Both guys are just physical beasts, and I expect they will put on a show. At the same time, I also expect them to make things difficult for each other offensively, which is why neither will be in my DFS lineups Saturday. In fact, I’m avoiding most of the top centers Saturday.

When Marcin Gortat had three or more days of rest last season, he averaged 15.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg and 1.6 bpg. He has three days of rest heading into Saturday, and while I don’t expect a huge night, he should provide a nice value in cash games.

The Denver centers have been pretty underwhelming so far this season, and while getting Joffrey Lauvergne back should help, he may still be limited. Phoenix is another home team facing another team who played Friday, and Chandler should have a decent shot at a double-double on fresh legs.  

The last time Dwight Howard sat out, Clint Capela had 13 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks. Howard is out Sunday, and Capela should be able to take advantage of Dallas poor interior defense.

Brook Lopez isn’t all that exciting, but he is a threat to go 20 and 10 every time out, and he has at least 12 points in every game this season. I’m probably saving money on the center position, but if you get to the end of your lineup and want to spend up a bit, Lopez is the best bet.