NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 16, 2016

So last night my dud was Trevor Booker. I said in my own article I was avoiding value and in the end killed my lineup with that very “value” in the form of Booker. What is the lesson here? Usually my first instincts are right and I need to keep that in mind.

In the last six nights I have lost five times. Yes, I am in a DFS slump. Three nights of losses I can sum up with three names: Tyreke Evans, Nikola Mirotic, and the previously mentioned Booker. It just so happens that no matter what you do, some things are just out of your control. So what do I do now? Simple, I will do my usual research, play my usual amount, and stick to my usual game plan. In DFS you need to be consistent in your strategy as bouncing around from thought to thought will only lead you to making deposits. Stay the course.

So with the NFL upon us and snow falling outside my window I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

The point guard position is deep tonight. Just how deep? Well 10 players scored a 20 or over in my model tonight. This does not happen often.

There is little doubt in my mind the top option tonight at point guard is Chris Paul. With Blake Griffin out he gets a boost shot attempt-wise and he is playing in a game with a really high 216.5 expected point total with the Clippers only being 5.5-point favorites. In eight of his last 10 games, Paul has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg, going over the 50 mark twice with seven double-doubles. The Kings are allowing 23 ppg, the 26^th most fantasy ppg, and 25.3 ppg over the last five to point guards. Hello cash game lineup.

Like I said yesterday, as long as he keeps putting up the numbers I am staying on the Damian Lillard train. Although I failed to cash last night I did use Lillard and once again he did not disappoint, scoring 33 points with 10 assists while racking up over 50 fantasy points. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in four straight, going over 50 and 60 once and tonight faces the Sixers. Here is the thing, though, they have improved a bit defensively going from allowing 20.2 ppg on the season to point guards to only allowing 18 ppg over the last five and the 18^th most fantasy ppg. Still, he is Lillard and they are the Sixers which leaves me no reason to believe he will not dominate again tonight making him a fine cash game option.

It is not often we get the chance to use Stephen Curry without much worry of the blowout factor. Well tonight with the Warriors only being seven-point favorites, we get a little relief from this. This game also has a high expected point total of 214 which is the second highest of the night. In the last three games where Curry has played more than 31 minutes he scored 61.7, 43.4, and 57.5 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Kings, Heat, and Nuggets. The Pistons are allowing the 10^th fewest fantasy ppg to point guards on the season but 24.4 ppg over the last five and 21.6 ppg on the season. I would love to find some way to pair two of these three guys together tonight, but I do not think it is necessary in cash games.

The guy I would pair with any of the three guys listed above tonight is Ish Smith. Smith is fair priced across the industry and a real bargain on FanDuel where he is only $6,900. Smith has three double-doubles in the last six games and has scored more than 40 fantasy points in five of his last 10. Portland is allowing 21.4 ppg, the 23^rd most fantasy ppg, and 24.6 ppg over the last five to the point guard position. This game also has a high 207.5 expected point total and gets you some cheap exposure to it without paying up for Lillard. I am calling it now, Smith puts up 40 fantasy points tonight.

I really liked Donald Sloan last night and he scored high in my model, but Shane Larkin also scored the same and I was uneasy about who was going to get the minutes. I was leaning toward Sloan but was just not willing to pull the trigger on him. While I guess he showed me, as he scored 15 points with nine assists, and nine rebounds versus the Trail Blazers last night for 36.3 fantasy points on FanDuel. Tonight he doesn’t get the juicy matchup he had last night but still gets a decent one facing an Atlanta team that is allowing 20.6 ppg on the season to point guards. I do not see him putting up 30 fantasy points tonight but I would not be surprised if you got 25 out of him for the low price of $3,700 on FanDuel and the minimum to near minimum across the industry.

Getting back to Ish Smith, if Donald Sloan put up over 35 fantasy points versus Portland how do you think Smith will do?

Shooting Guard

A ship descends from the clouds and lands quietly just out of sight of the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. The exit hatch opens and a red and blue mist floods out from the exit as the doorway slowly opens. He has arrived to dominate the outside perimeter and lay waste to the defense at hand. His name is J.J. Redick and he knows the world is watching as the "Chronicles of Redick" are at hand.

Redick continues to get a boost as well with Griffin out and I knew the moment I saw tonight’s schedule I would be using the Redick-Paul combination. Redick has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games surprisingly scoring over 30 fantasy points versus a tough Jazz defense the day after Christmas. The Kings are allowing 23.2 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards while surrendering 25.6 ppg over the last five. His price is low and I have this sequel locked and loaded.

The guy I am currently pairing with Redick in my cash game lineup tonight is Rodney Hood. First off, he is facing the Lakers who have trouble beating high school teams in exhibition games (maybe a slight exaggeration). The last time Hood played the Lakers he scored 29.2 fantasy points on FanDuel and with the Lakers allowing 22.8 ppg, the 25^th most fantasy ppg, and 24.6 ppg over the last five to shooting guards he might hit 30 tonight.

I was on the Avery Bradley bandwagon last night and still have my wagon hitched to it tonight. He scored over 30 fantasy points last night versus the Suns who really suck, but the Wizards are no San Antonio Spurs when it comes to defense as they are allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg and 21.3 ppg on the season to shooting guards. His price is low and he should give you what you pay for tonight, maybe more.

C.J. McCollum also had one hell of a night last night, scoring nearly 30 fantasy points versus the Nets. If I was going to spend up at SG tonight then McCollum is the only guy I would do it with. He is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and has reached that mark in five out of his last nine even putting up over 60 fantasy points versus the Kings on Dec. 27. Of course, he was without Lillard in that monster game but with the Sixers allowing 24 ppg to shooting guards over the last five I have little doubt he will have another good night tonight.

If you really want to save money tonight take a look at Allen Crabbe. His price is bottom of the barrel bargain-wise and he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games. I realize some of this was while Lillard was on hiatus, but even with Lillard back he has continued to produce off the bench. Last night he put up over 30 fantasy points in 27 minutes versus the Nets and Portland has the Sixers tonight. You get no minutes guarantee here making him better for GPP play than cash games.

Small Forward

Gary Gnu has been gone from the spotlight for a long time now but Al-Farouq Aminu is right in the thick of things. Any time you have a team opposing the Lakers, Sixers, Kings, and any of the other bottom of the basement defenses it places otherwise average players in positions to be stars for the night. Aminu has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last 10 games and is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg over his last three. The Sixers are allowing a whopping 28.5 ppg over the last five to small forwards and the most fantasy ppg on the season. His price is low and I will be using him tonight in cash games.

Robert Covington is the guy I will pair with Aminu on FanDuel tonight. In the last two games he has played over 30 minutes in each and has scored 58.3 fantasy points on FanDuel. Portland is allowing 21.7 ppg over the last five to the small forward position and for the low price of $4,600 on FanDuel I have to play him.

Jae Crowder remains a top option tonight at the small forward position. He just keeps getting it done nightly regardless of opponent and I expect this trend to continue tonight. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last five nearly hitting the 40 mark on FanDuel last night versus the Suns. The Wizards are allowing the second most fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards and 21.4 ppg over the last five. His price is starting to increase a bit but he is still a bargain.

Gordon Hayward scored over 30 fantasy points the last time he faced the Lakers something he has done in six of his last 10 games, going over the 40 mark once versus the Trail Blazers. Tonight he gets to face the Lakers again who have played a little better as of late but still are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and Hayward should have a solid repeat performance.

Nicolas Batum (GTD – elbow) has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last six nearly hitting 40 on two occasions. The Bucks are allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards (where he is playing) on the season and Batum has the ability to get hot and rack up the points for a decent price. Just make sure he is playing prior to lineup lock.

Power Forward

Well after a few days of apparent well-deserved rest Draymond Green is set to return to his starting role. He fooled us all last game coming in and playing 27 minutes but not tonight. Green is the best option on the Golden State side of things tonight and I instantly inserted him in my cash games. He has four triple-doubles in his last nine games scoring more than 50 fantasy points three times. I expect him to get heavy minutes tonight facing a Detroit team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg on the season and 21.8 ppg over the last five to power forwards. I mean Ersan Ilyasova? Really? I doubt it.

If you are stubborn and refuse to jump on the Green Bandwagon then do not be a sap. Paul Millsap is the next-best option down from Green tonight facing the Nets. The only problem is the Nets do not defend the net well. They are allowing 22.6 ppg over the last five to power forwards and with Millsap’s price down to $8,400 on FanDuel it is becoming hard not to play him knowing he has huge breakout game upside. He has scored over 40 fantasy six times in the last 10 games going over the 50 fantasy point mark twice. See what I mean? Cheap.

Listen to me and please forgive me for what I am about to say, but I am starting to get comfortable playing Jabari Parker. He is playing plenty of minutes and averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in the last three. The Hornets are allowing 20.7 ppg, the 27^th most fantasy ppg, and 22.5 ppg to power forwards over the last five. Parker has 30 fantasy point upside for dirt cheap across the industry and is usually low owned because everyone is just as afraid to take him as I am. The numbers look good, though.

Nene Hilario has played more than 20 minutes in three straight games with Marcin Gortat out. In all three games he has scored over 20 fantasy points. His price on FanDuel is only $4,200 facing a Celtics team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to centers. Where Nene is playing, he makes a decent punt option for a stars and scrubs lineup.

Center

Center is loaded tonight. We have options at all the price levels. If you are going to spend up tonight I would pay up for Andre Drummond. His price is deflated across the industry and he is playing a Warriors team that is allowing a whopping 25.8 ppg to centers over the last five. This game has a high expected point total and I really think it will be closer than the (-7) Warriors line. He has 50 fantasy point upside we look for and is $2,100 cheaper on FanDuel than DeMarcus Cousins. Drummond also has had a few bad games lately so recency bias should dictate a lower ownership.

The guy who scores the highest in my model today at the center position is Al Horford and for good reason. In the last 10 games Horford has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg five times going over 50 and 60 once. His price is low at $7,800 on FanDuel for a guy with a ceiling this high facing a Nets team allowing 22.5 ppg, the third most fantasy ppg, and 22.3 ppg over the last five to centers.

When you are a fan of a team it is funny how when watching games you focus on one player for a while and he kind of becomes your favorite and then another guy gets hot so you start watching him a little more and so forth. This happens to me watching the Celtics and my current favorite guy is Amir Johnson. Even though he is playing at PF FanDuel still has him at C. He has been steady lately putting up more than 20 fantasy ppg in eight straight going over 30 and 40 once. The matchup could be better with Washington allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards but they are allowing 20.6 ppg on the season. His price is only $5,500 on FanDuel. I call that reasonable and he has been an instant plug-and-play for me on Yahoo and DraftKings where his price is real low.

If DeAndre Jordan (GTD) sits tonight then Cole Aldrich would seem to be almost an automatic play at the minimum price across the industry. Last night with Jordan out, he scored 19 points with seven rebounds to rack up over 30 fantasy points. With numbers like that it seems unlikely they will rush Jordan back considering the Kings are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers. One thing to know first: Over the last five games the Kings are allowing an amazingly low 7.5 ppg to centers. Trust me, this was not a typo. If this news is not in by lineup lock you have to fade this play on FanDuel.

Good luck tonight everyone.