NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 13, 2016

So last night I fell asleep watching the Celtics game and woke up at 12:30 am to check my phone. To my dismay I was within three points of cashing out all my 50/50’s on FanDuel.  So I started to feel the anxiety of losing take hold and then I noticed the Pelicans-Lakers game had a few minutes remaining. Instantly I started getting excited as I had four players going in this game.

I proceeded to fumble around in the dark for a minute before finding the remote control to turn on the TV. The minute the television turned on I saw Lou Williams drain a three. I went from winning zero dollars to a few hundred in a second. From this point on I knew more than likely I was safe. With Tyreke Evans, Lou Williams, Ryan Anderson, and Jrue Holiday all playing it would take a lot to knock me back now. The end result was my three day losing skid snapped.

So losing streaks suck right? To be honest I have had longer ones at times than three days. When I get on these losing streaks I often find it is not my choices that kill me most nights, it is more a case of unexpected misfortunate circumstances. A guy will get hurt, get rested, not get the minutes, or once in awhile just plain stink. It happens right? We all are human even these mammoth bean stalks. So do not get discouraged when losing streaks start, just keep playing what you play, do the best you can, and trust me…it will turn around.

Tonight’s slate is going to be pretty crazy. We have lots of high expected point totals and possible value bursting from the seams. I will be playing a little lighter tonight as I always do when we have more than eight games but still will be in the mix of things.

So with hump day upon us I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

The point guard position is full of great plays tonight and has plenty of big guns to insert but not a ton of value in my opinion.

The Pelicans-Kings game tonight has the highest expected point total of the evening at 213. It also has two teams playing each other that are a nightly source of fantasy gold. Tyreke Evans whether or not Anthony Davis plays tonight is my favorite option. Evans has scored more than 30 points in four straight games going over the 40 mark twice. The Kings are allowing 23 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg on the season to point guards while surrendering 25.9 ppg over the last five. His price is low at $7,800 on FanDuel and he will be the guy I am rolling out in my cash game lineup tonight for sure. Of course, if Davis sits he gets a bigger bump.

Evil lurks in the kingdom of Middle-Earth. The good live and die while the evil just gets stronger. The world of men kills and pillages for trinkets of gold and silver as they try to lay claim to a portion of our DFS winnings. All of this is worthless in the eyes of our beleaguered soul. He has one thing on his mind, it may look like gold but it is so much more than that. It consumes him. He lives, sleeps, and eats all while constantly having his mind on the precious…triple-double.

Gollum, or Rajon Rondo, returns to battle for the right to obtain his precious tonight against a Pelicans team that failed to even beat the lowly Lakers last night. Rondo ran into some troubles early last game attributing to a fantasy stinker but compiled three straight games prior to this where he posted 40 fantasy ppg twice and over 50 once. The Pelicans are allowing 22.1 ppg over the last five and 23.5 ppg on the season to point guards and Rondo should feast tonight as long as he can behave himself.

Looking to save a few bucks tonight and still have a shot at 30 fantasy points? Emmanuel Mudiay returned to action on Sunday versus the Charlotte Hornets and played 39 minutes while putting up over 25 fantasy points. The Nuggets-Warriors is another game tonight with a high 211 expected point total and with the Warriors allowing 22.2 ppg, the 22^nd most fantasy ppg, and 25.9 ppg over the last five to point guards Mudiay is a great option for cheap.

Deron Williams is in a position tonight to put up a ton of fantasy points. He has scored over 30 fantasy points in two his last four games including a double-double versus the Cavaliers last night. Tonight he gets to face the Thunder who are allowing a whopping 29.3 ppg (highest in NBA) over the last five and the 24^th most fantasy ppg on the season to point guards. The Mavericks are 9.5-point underdogs tonight which could limit his minutes but I expect him to go off tonight for cheap.

With the rumors of Draymond Green taking a few nights off to rest I cannot imagine a world where you would not start Stephen Curry. Curry is one of the elite class of players who has a 60 fantasy point ceiling when he goes off. Curry had a triple-double versus the Kings on 12/28 and with Green out I believe he has a serious shot at it again tonight. The Nuggets are allowing 22.8 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. All things that spell success for Curry.

Another cheap flyer in a GPP tonight that has a chance to exceed value is Patrick Beverley. In three of his last six games Beverly has scored more than 25 fantasy points three times going over 30 once. He is scoring in the double-digits most nights while posting four-to-six rebounds and assists in four of his last six. The Timberwolves are allowing 23.5 ppg to point guards over the last five and 23.1 ppg on the season. I will have some exposure to him tonight in GPP.

Shooting Guard

The shooting guard position is absolutely loaded, full of cheap guys in great matchups everywhere. Even the newest of DFS players will have little trouble at this position tonight. Here is how I attack it when I find this happens. I do my shooting guards last. I know I have tons of viable options tonight under $5,000 on FanDuel so why fill it first? So I usually leave around $9,500 for my budget. Unless I roster a big gun like Klay Thompson.

Thompson scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in five straight, going over 50 once before his recent two-game slide where he just missed the 30 mark in each. If there is no Draymond Green tonight I will have both Thompson and Curry in my cash game lineups. If Green plays I will still more than likely use Thompson anyhow considering the Nuggets are allowing the most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards. That alone makes it hard to not use him in this slated high-scoring affair.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, who to this day I still have to look at it to spell it right, is playing at SF even though FanDuel has him at SG. He is the only other SG I would spend up for tonight on the slate besides Thompson. He scored 29 points with 10 rebounds, and five assists over 31 minutes versus the Bulls last night to tally a monster 52.5 fantasy points on FanDuel. The Wizards are allowing 23.2 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season and 22.2 ppg over the last five. His price is only $6,800 which is not bad considering you have a real shot at 35-to-40 fantasy points here tonight.

Marco Belinelli has played more than 30 minutes in four of his last six games. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in five of his last six games, going over the 30 mark twice. With the Pelicans allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards combined with a low $4,300 price on FanDuel I find it hard not to use him.

Jeremy Lamb is a play that I currently have in a tie with Belinelli. Lamb has played 30 minutes in three of the last four games scoring over 30 fantasy points each time even posting a double-double versus the Clippers on 1/09. The Hawks are allowing a high 25.5 ppg to shooting guards over the last five games and the 21^st most fantasy ppg on the season. This game has a high 204.5 expected point total with the Hawks being 2.5-point favorites. All this spells one word to me, “exposure”. You should have some and he is a great cheap way to get it.

You want a nice play I believe will be sneaky tonight? The Heat are allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. The Clippers-Heat game is one of few on the night with an expected point total under 200 at 197. Defense versus position wise it is not a pretty game which will lead most away from it. I believe J.J. Redick who I will spare the "Chronicles of Redick" reference today is a fine play. You see, with Griffin out his usage rate still gets a boost and the Heat are allowing 22.3 ppg to shooting guards over the last five games while previously allowing a lower 19.6 ppg on the season. GPP only though.

Small Forward

Otto Porter is my favorite play tonight at the small forward position. Washington is all banged up and Porter is not. That is a huge bonus and spells plenty of minutes. He has played over 30 mpg in eight straight while scoring over 30 fantasy ppg five times going over 40 once. The Bucks are allowing the third most fantasy ppg on the season and 23.6 ppg over the last five to small forwards. The Otto Pops are back in the freezer. I will not lie, I have been known to drink them before they see the freezer.

The Atlanta Hawks are allowing a whopping 25.5 ppg to shooting guards over the last five games. FanDuel has Nicolas Batum at SF even though he is at SG. Batum is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and in his last six games played has scored over 30 fantasy ppg four times going over 40 once and never under 25. His price is higher than Porter, but if I could afford them both tonight I would. The reality is in my cash game lineup I need to save somewhere making this a one-or-the-other type of affair.

As earlier talked about if Draymond Green sits then value has to pop somewhere. I believe it will be found tonight with Harrison Barnes. His minutes are increasing and tonight could be the night they let him loose -- especially if they decide to rest the young Green. He has the ability to hit the 30 fantasy point mark if given the playing time and the Nuggets are allowing plenty of fantasy points to everyone.

The thing that drives me crazy about Paul George is his fantasy production goes something like this, great, great, great, crap, crap, great, OK. I find this kind of stuff entirely unenticing for cash games. I do believe tonight George is in a position to have a “great” night and not a “crap” night. The Celtics are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg and 21.1 ppg over the last five to small forwards. George can easily get over 45 fantasy points if he goes off but he could also get you 31 fantasy points. Which you could of course obtain much cheaper making George a GPP play only.

With Rodney Stuckey out tonight C.J. Miles should see more minutes off the bench. He scored over 30 fantasy points versus the horrible Suns last night who appear to have a dark cloud over them and over 27 fantasy points versus the low flying Pelicans on January 8. His price is only $4,200 on FanDuel and tonight he is in a spot to hit that 30 mark again for peanuts.

Power Forward

This position has one of the highest “what if” rates I have seen to this date.

If Anthony Davis sits then Ryan Anderson becomes my top play at the power forward position tonight. Anderson has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in three straight going over 35 versus the Pacers on January 8. The Kings are allowing the third most fantasy ppg on the season and 22.3 ppg to power forwards over the last five. If he gets the start he can easily put up over 30 fantasy points tonight for cheap.

If Draymond Green sits (a familiar theme today) and Marreese Speights gets the start he is a great source of value. He averages about a point per minute played so if he plays 30 minutes tonight, well, you get the picture. The Nuggets are allowing 21.9 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season which should help him along the way.

The Hawks-Hornets game tonight is a bevy of value tonight that a lot of people will look over with all the other games with higher expected point totals. Players from this game are lighting up my model today because DFS wise this game fits all the parameters.  It has a close line, a high expected point total, and great defensive matchups to exploit.

One of those matchups is Cody Zeller. Although despite several letters to FanDuel by his mom, they still refuse to put him in as a center and, therefore, he still resides in the PF slot. The Hawks are allowing a whopping 25.5 ppg to centers over the last five and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg on the season. Zeller has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last seven games and certainly is in a fine position to do it again tonight for a super-low industry-wide price.

If Carmelo Anthony sits tonight, and it appears more than likely he will, then Kristaps Porzingis is a top play at the position. Snap, Crackle, Pop, and their Keebler enemies all agree Porzingis is the man. Why they fight? I am not sure yet.

Porzingis has scored over 115 fantasy combined in his last three games and tonight would be the big gun on the court facing a Brooklyn team that is allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg overall and 20.4 ppg to power forwards over the last five. My only concern is they might just smother him all night long, opening the way for someone like Derrick Williams to play a major role tonight. If given the minutes, Williams has the ability to give you plenty of value for the minimum across the industry and has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in three of the last five games.

With the Wizards all banged up Drew Gooden is a great play tonight with Marcin Gortat out. In his last game he scored over 30 fantasy in 27 minutes versus the Bulls. If he gets 25 minutes tonight you are looking at a similar performance facing a Milwaukee team allowing plenty fantasy points to all.

Center

DeMarcus Cousins is the top play at center tonight if you can afford him. He is averaging over 55 fantasy ppg over his last four and tonight faces a Pelicans team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. I am not able to fit him into my cash game lineup but a few moves later on could change that. He is viable in any format you play him and if he matches his recent output you will be left behind in the dust at the center position for sure. My only problem with Cousins is he scares me any night in cash games because he often “boogies” his way into trouble.

Robin Lopez is still getting it done game by game for the near minimum across the industry. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six straight and with no Melo he might see an extra shot or two. He also gets to face his brother tonight which I always find enjoyable to watch. The Nets are allowing a whopping 22.9 ppg, the third most fantasy ppg, and a whopping 25.4 ppg to centers over the last five. He is the guy I currently have in my cash game lineup.

If Draymond Green does not sit then I will be swapping Curry for Cousins in cash games.

Ian Mahinmi is another guy who is quietly getting it done nightly. He is becoming one of my “go-to” guys on a nightly basis when the matchup is right, like tonight. The Celtics I am sad to say are ranked 16^th at defending the center position while allowing 23.2 ppg over the last five and 20.1 ppg on the season. Mahinmi has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games going over 30 once. His price remains low while his production remains more than fair.

Good luck tonight everyone.