NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 4, 2016

I am so glad the holidays are over. The tree, the mistletoe, the stockings, the lights, and the other myriad of Christmas decorations have all been retired until next year. We said our goodbyes to the elf on the shelf and packed her away until she returns next year to watch over the four little monsters I call children. Santa has exited the building leaving in his wake an area of total devastation filled with cardboard boxes and ravaged wrapping paper.

So with the holidays over and football coming to an end we are getting ready to head full steam into DFS NBA. You think things are tough now? Just wait until the full force of the remaining DFS world has all turned their attention to basketball with little else to do.

I cannot exercise enough how critical bankroll management is on a night like tonight. We have question marks everywhere and possible value looming around every corner. I will be playing lighter as I always do on slates more than seven games and I suggest you do the same.

So with the holidays behind us and lots of exciting NBA action ahead of us I bring you todays position coach article.

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook in five of his last seven games has scored more than 50 fantasy points. Tonight he is facing a Kings team allowing 27 ppg over the last five and the 27^th most fantasy points to point guards on the season. This game has a huge expected point total of 219.5 with the Thunder being 11-point favorites. I do not care if Westbrook sits the fourth quarter I say he still gets 50 fantasy points and I have already plugged him into my cash game lineup.

To your surprise and mine the guy who came in second tonight in my model at the PG position is Darren Collison. He is playing heavy minutes and has scored more than 30 fantasy points in three of his last five games while putting up one double-double. With this games high expected point total the more the exposure the better and for Collison’s low price across the industry he makes an excellent play tonight. The Thunder are allowing 22.3 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. I would not shy away from him in cash or GPP.

If you read my articles then you already know that I will be watching the Celtics game tonight. It just so happens many of my beloved Celts find themselves in great matchups tonight which always provides a lot of fantasy fun for yours truly.

Isaiah Thomas is facing a Nets team in a game with a decent 202.5 expected point total with Boston being 6.5-point favorites. The Nets are allowing 21.2 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. Thomas has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in seven of his last eight games going over the 40 mark twice and I can tell you right now he will find his way into one of my lineups tonight.

Patty Mills is slated to get the start tonight with Tony Parker (hip) taking a seat. Mills is the near minimum price across the industry facing a Milwaukee team allowing 21.6 ppg over the last five to point guards. His ceiling is not terribly high but if he gets enough playing time could net you a little over 20 fantasy points for next to nothing. I will use him in a GPP or two at best. Not cash games though.

The Sixers stink. I mean if you put them in a phone booth with a skunk he would leave gagging in a few seconds. That is surely smelly. Ricky Rubio, on the other hand, does not stink. In four of his last five games he has scored over 35 fantasy ppg hitting the 40 mark once. His price is fair across the industry for a player averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and as luck has it the Sixers are allowing 23.4 ppg over the last five and 20.5 ppg on the season to point guards. Right now I plan on pairing him with Westbrook hoping to get 90 points out of the PG position tonight.

Shooting Guard

Klay Thompson is fast becoming a plug and play. Stephen Curry’s status for tonight is in question and it appears he will be a game-time decision. Thompson regardless, in my opinion, is the top play of the evening due to such a high ceiling and great matchup. Thompson has scored more than 40 fantasy points in back-to-back games and tonight he faces a Charlotte team allowing 23.6 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards, making him a no brainer.

In cash games if you do not play Thompson I really feel you need to at least plug in C.J. McCollum. Although Portland is a source of nightly stress as we all await the status of Damian Lillard each evening I see little way around not playing one of these top two. McCollum has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in six straight while hitting the 60 mark once versus Sacramento while playing 42 minutes. The only thing that keeps him below Thompson tonight is the extra price and back-to-back game factor. Memphis is a tough matchup allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season but are allowing 21.5 ppg over the last five. I will say this, If Lillard wusses out again tonight then McCollum is the top play at SG playing in the PG position.

The guy I currently have sitting in the SG slot in my lineup along with Thompson is Rodney Hood. Not only does he remind me of my favorite beverage growing up (milk), but he is also red hot right now. In the last two games combined he has scored 82 fantasy points on FanDuel for a nice $5,300 price tag. The Rockets are allowing 20.7 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards while giving up 22.7 ppg over the last five. With Hood red hot and the Rockets defense so bad I have to take a chance he comes through again tonight.

If you want to take a chance for cheap the guy who scored higher than anyone else in my model is Dion Waiters. Regardless of the point spread Waiters will get around 25 minutes of playing time. He is the typical matchup-dependent play and things lineup beautiful for him tonight with the Kings allowing 23 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. His price is the near minimum across the industry and he could easily get you 25 fantasy points tonight if the minutes come through.

Small Forward

It is not often I find Utah players floating to the top of my model at any position. After you factor in pace and the usual low expected point totals they tend to fall to the lower echelon of my player pool. Tonight, however, for the second time today at a position a Utah player scored higher than any other player in my model.

Gordon Hayward is the only player at the small forward position today that ran into the red section of my chart. He is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and has scored over 30 fantasy points in three of the last five going over 40 twice. The Rockets are allowing a third highest 21 ppg and the third most fantasy points on the season to small forwards while giving up 22.3 ppg over the last five. The game still has a 200.5 expected point total and I am counting Hayward for 40 fantasy points tonight in my cash game lineup.

I love when we can get a shooting guard compliments of FanDuel into our SF slot. Instant advantage when you spot it on a points per position basis. Andrew Wiggins is playing at SG against a Sixers team allowing the most points in the NBA over the last five games to shooting guards at 26. Wiggins has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in three straight and should easily get all of that tonight versus a Sixers team that surrenders the third most fantasy ppg overall.

With Avery Bradley out Evan Turner should draw the start in the shooting guard slot. Turner has that mid-30 fantasy point ceiling for a mid-20 fantasy point price. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three straight going over 35 versus the Lakers on Dec. 30. Here is what makes him a fine GPP play but scares me off of cash games. The Nets are allowing 24.2 ppg on the season to shooting guards which is the highest in the NBA. They also are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season as well. This is where my cash game wallet runs away, over the last five games the Nets are allowing second fewest ppg to shooting guards at 16.9. GPP only but to be honest I could use him in cash if I need to save a few bucks.

Rudy Gay is in a position tonight to score you fantasy gold. Lately he has been a bit of a letdown but we have seen that 40-point upside in the past (Dec. 15 he tallied 46.1 FanDuel points versus Houston). With the expected point total on this game pushing 220 Gay becomes a viable source to tap into that well. The Thunder allowing 25.4 ppg to small forwards over the last five which is second highest in the NBA. You could use him safely tonight in cash games or GPP.

If you are looking for a late bullet to save some money with then Al-Farouq Aminu who I picture with a little bowtie, singing songs with his merry band of do-gooders faces a Memphis team allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. Aminu has had back-to-back duds which either means you are getting a third or getting a bounce-back. The problem which it is hard to narrow down which is more likely making him a GPP play. Gary Gnu Aminu is back…maybe.

Power Forward

Draymond Green has posted back-to-back triple-doubles. That is pretty good if you ask me. Tonight Green gets to beat up on a Charlotte team allowing 20.8 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to power forwards while giving up 22.3 over the last five. His price is high but if he goes off tonight you will be left behind in cash games. I see little choice but to spend up here.

Nerlens Noel is playing in the center position tonight facing a Minnesota team allowing an incredible 27 ppg to centers over the last five games. He also is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg over his last five. You combine these two factors with his decent price and you have a real shot at 40 fantasy points tonight right here.

Thaddeus Young tonight is facing my beloved Celtics. As much as I hate to I will have some exposure to Young tonight in GPP play. He averages over 30 fantasy ppg and my Celtics are allowing 21.5 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. He has that ceiling to get you to the 40 mark which is where you need to be with at least one of your power forwards tonight to stay in the mix.

Cody Zeller recently wrote a letter to his mom asking her to please call the people at FanDuel asking them to place him in the center slot where he has been playing for quite some time. The Warriors are allowing 22.4 ppg over the last five games to centers and the 21^st most fantasy ppg on the season. Zeller plays plenty of minutes and has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in two of the last three for the low price of $4,600 on FanDuel.

Looking for a cheapie? Trevor Booker is playing heavy minutes and also scores higher than any other power forward tonight in model. Now keep in mind my model is designed to flush out the highest return of value versus cost. The Rockets are allowing the most ppg, ppg over the last five games, and fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. Up till now Booker has a mid-20 fantasy point ceiling but if there is going to be a night he hits the 30 mark tonight would be it. His price is only $4,400 on FanDuel and he makes a great GPP play.

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns is my favorite play at center tonight for cash games if you can afford him. The Sixers are allowing the second most fantasy ppg on the season and 23.3 ppg to centers over the last five games. Towns has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in three straight eclipsing the 40 mark once. He has a huge ceiling and could explode for a monster game for under $7,000 on FanDuel.

If you want to spend up at center I would take Marc Gasol. I do not see myself being able to fit him into my cash game lineup but he is the safest play. Gasol scores nearly 20 ppg mixing in a bunch of other stuff to boot. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in the three of his last seven games and tonight gets a Portland team allowing 22.4 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to centers while giving up 25.3 ppg over the last five games.

I am currently using Jeff Withey in my cash game lineup. This is not safe. I do not recommend this. I will say that more often than not I do well going cheap at center. His price is only $4,500 on FanDuel and the Rockets are allowing 21.2 ppg over the last five. Withey has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of the last four making him hard to pass on for me.

Enes Kanter is another cheapie I would take a chance on in cash games tonight even though I do not recommend it. The Kings are allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to centers and when Kanter gets the minutes he produces. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of the last six and should see all of that again tonight for peanuts.

Like I said, I am playing a little lighter tonight. Lots of variables and what ifs tonight. Play smart.