NBA Best Bets Today, 11/11: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Monday
Yesterday was close to another profitable day for our NBA predictions. Stephen Curry had 17 points in the third quarter, as the Oklahoma City Thunder gave up their most points of the season, 127. Their best defender left in the middle of the first quarter with a fractured hip, and that made it difficult to be successful.
Anthony Davis essentially only played the first half. He had 18 points at halftime and ended with only 22 due to an eye injury. A sad reality of betting on over props sometimes. He attempted just 8 field goals, played just 26 minutes, and grabbed only 4 rebounds. All of which were season low marks.
Daniel Gafford came through with the double unit bet near even odds. That kept the damage at just over one unit, and now it is time to start the weekday with winning NBA best bets today.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 11/11
There are five games today, all of which begin at 8:00 PM ET. There is a combination of varying NBA picks today, including two plus odd props and a straight bet in what is likely the game of the night.
However, the Bet of the Night resides in a divisional battle of the Eastern Conference.
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Prediction: Vucevic O1.5 Threes Made (+160 on DraftKings) *2 Units - Bet Of The Night
Well Stephen Curry may have spurred us last night, but it was because he was hot from behind the arc. The modern NBA is so much about three point attempts, that something that would have been an automatic benching, is now encouraged.
Shaquille O’Neal attempted 22 three point field goals in his career, Dikembe Mutombo attempted 2… now the centers are attempting threes in every game. Nikola Vucevic has attempted 43 this season, and it is planned.
The starting Bulls center has changed his game to add years to his NBA career, and he is doing it with consistency. Vucevic did not attempt threes to begin his career, but is in a rhythm with them in Chicago. He has made two or more in his last four of five games, and the Cavaliers are going to score often, implying the Bulls will have to score often to keep pace.
Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets mentioned we would ride this pick until the sportsbooks correct it. This game has the highest point total of the night by 10 points, and has a line of 236.5. The Bulls are rested, they are at home, and Vucevic needs to maintain his average for this positive odd prop to hit. Two units on our guy to deliver.
Clippers vs. Thunder Prediction: Total Under 219.5 (-115 on BetMGM)
The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Los Angeles Clippers in what should be a great game. The Thunder had their worst performance of the season yesterday and have now dropped two of their last three games. Worst yet, they lost starter Chet Holmgren for at least the rest of the 2024 calendar season.
The Clippers are currently on a four game win streak and haven’t lost on the road this season. These two teams are great defenses, allowing a combined 209 points per game. The sportsbooks are counting on higher scores than their average, due to the injury but we are not.
Put a unit on the defense to hold in tonight’s NBA predictions in this Western Conference showdown.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 11/11
The Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans are predicted to have a close game, with a 1.5 spread and tight money line. Either team could take this match, and there is uncertainty with both teams.
The rebounding lines are something bizarre, as there is guaranteed to be an off line amongst the propositions. The NBA best bets for this game is on the rebounds… sort of.
Nets vs. Pelicans Prediction: Claxton To Record A Double-Double (+150 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nic Claxton’s rebounding line is set at 9.5 and he has a 4 rebound advantage over any New Orleans Pelicans player. In fact, Ben Simmons is the closest person to his line with positive odds on his over 6.5.
This column has repeatedly mentioned checking the double-double line when a player’s rebounds or assists are set at 9.5 and the player averages 10 or more points. The issue with this is that Claxton has not averaged 10 points per game this season, although he does have several games with ten or more points.
The double-double line at +150 is simply too good to ignore, particularly as Claxton’s minutes increase. He played his first game with over thirty minutes two days ago, and he earned a double-double.
It is a gamble, but they all are, and the data indicates that Claxton could have a dominating performance against a bad front court. Put a unit on his double-double and if you want to back it up with a wager on his over 9.5 rebounds that would be perfectly acceptable.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.