We have two more games on tap for tonight’s DFS NBA slate for the second round of the NBA Playoffs and it’ll take the Miami Heat having an awful shooting night in order for the Philadelphia 76ers to not go down two games to zero in this series. Joel Embiid still being out is a massive blow to this team’s offense because of how lethal he is with the basketball. The Phoenix Suns had a lot of control of the first game of their series against the Dallas Mavericks but the Mavs were able to hang in the game and the Suns were victorious by just seven points even with Luka Doncic scoring 45 points. Here are tonight’s DFS NBA core plays for these games.

 

 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat (MIA up 1-0)

 

 

We’re hearing reports that Joel Embiid can potentially return to action once this series shifts to Philadelphia, but until we get that confirmation it’ll be very hard for the Sixers to match up against Miami – even with Kyle Lowry and his feisty defense inactive for Game 2. The momentum in Game 1 changed after halftime. Philadelphia was actually winning and then Miami outscored them 56-41 in the second half. Both of these teams play at a slow pace and in order for the Sixers to have a shot to steal game two, they’ll have to pick up the pace and have James Harden drive to the basket more and not spend most of the shot clock trying to create with the ball. Clearly, Harden’s teammate Tyrese Maxey was fed up and avoided Harden like the plague when the two were on the bench together – moving to a different part of the bench to get away from him. Both teams shot horrendously from downtown last game and the Heat have better shooters than the Sixers and it will be very difficult for the Sixers to win. They’ll need to shoot far better than 17.6 percent from the arc.

Injuries:

Player Breakdown:

 

 

After shooting under 39% and taking only 13 shots in Game 1, James Harden is going to have to find a way to get better looks as the team’s most potent offensive weapon without Embiid. Harden scored just 16 points in the opener and doesn’t have a lot of size to work with, so the best thing he can do in order to boost those assists is to run basic give-and-go plays with DeAndre Jordan – just so they can get to the basket easier. Harden has to abandon his isolation style of play and keep the Heat on their toes by moving the ball around. He has a usage percentage above 36 with Embiid off the floor and we should expect a better shooting night to go along with strong rebounding and dime producing. Harden only dished five dimes last game and that number should go up tonight.

 

 

Jimmy Butler only played 30 minutes last game, but his defense will be much more needed if Harden has a better scoring night tonight. Butler scored just 15 points, but he’s scored at least 20 points in all other games he’s played in this postseason. Butler recorded a double-double in two of his last three contests and was one rebound shy of doing it again. Butler didn’t have a strong shooting night in game one, but we can always rely on him to produce swipes and Butler has posted five straight multi-steal outings. Danny Green and Tobias Harris are decent defenders, but without strong defenders in the post, Butler (like Harden) should be in attack mode as the lane should be wide open for him all night.

 

 

With Embiid out, Tobias Harris' usage rate rises to 29 percent. After seeing him take 18 shots and score 27 points in Game 1, we have to go back to him for DFS. He also shot over 61 percent from the floor. He had the most success chipping away at the Heat’s staunch defense and he did most of it from inside the arc with guys like P.J. Tucker and Bam Adebayo watching him. Harris posted a lot of double-doubles last series versus Toronto, but Miami plays intense post defense and Harris’ mid-range game will have to be on point for the Sixers to have any chance of winning. The last game wasn’t a fluke for Harris as he hit the 20-point mark in scoring two times against Miami this season. Since the Sizers don’t have a strong post-presence tonight, he’ll be force-fed the ball at the elbow and will have plenty of time to create. Harris, Harden, and Maxey are the only three offensive threats that Philadelphia has and no other PF/C on the team can create offensively. Though Harris will have to battle in the post all night long, he’ll get plenty of shot volume.

 

 

Bam Adebayo notched a double-double last game and he should once again have an easy time doing so. Adebayo scored 24 points and the Sixers can do nothing to keep him out of the post. What makes Adebayo such a tough assignment is that he has great ball-handling skills. He won’t just call for the ball in the post with a defender on him to try to back down, Adebayo brings the ball up at times and he’ll drive the lane himself if it’s somewhat open. Jordan won’t be able to keep up with Adebayo once again and they can’t really turn to other options on their bench. The Sixers sacrificed their depth upfront a bit when they traded Andre Drummond as part of the Ben Simmons deal and now with no Embiid to guard the paint, Adebayo will control the low-block with ease. He’s not only scored 20 or more points in both of his last two battles, but he also grabbed double-digit rebounds and recorded blocks and steals. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be in all of our lineups tonight.

 

 

Even though Tyler Herro is dealing with an ankle injury, he should be in line once again for at least 15 shots. With the active Heat players tonight, Herro has a near 30-percent usage rate and he scored 25 points shooting nearly 53 percent from the floor last game against the Sixers. The reigning NBA Sixth Man Of The Year should play 3 minutes tonight and he’ll have a lot more time to create with the Ball with Herro sidelined. Herro actually dropped seven dimes against the Sixers and James Harden and Tyrese Maxey aren’t the best defenders. The Heat opted not to use Duncan Robinson who they easily could have inserted to hoist three’s because that’s what he’s paid to do, but instead, off the bench, Herro took the most shots of any Heat player and the best part is that he only took six shots from downtown last game of the 17 he put up which shows that he’s not just relying on his three-point shooting, but that he’s trying to get to the basket more to make himself a bit more useful with what seems like half of this team banged up.

 

 

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns (PHX up 1-0)

 

 

The Mavericks don’t have much size, but let’s not forget how great of a defender Luka Doncic is. Just like Ja Morant will have to do with Memphis, Doncic will have to carry the Mavs with performances like he had in the first game of the series in order for Dallas to be able to even take a game in this series. Besides Doncic, the Mavs don’t have many attackers and they’re going to rely heavily on their long-range shooting from players such as Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber. Dallas made a strong attempt at coming back in this game but there wasn’t enough time. It was impressive seeing them outscore Phoenix 35-25 in the fourth quarter. The Suns were in complete control for most of last game and they are not only one of the deepest teams in the league, but they play strong all-around defense and last game the Suns shot over 50 percent from the floor. The Mavs don’t have enough pieces to keep up with this team.

Injuries:

Player Breakdown:

 

 

Luka Doncic took 30 shots last game and until he gets limited by the Suns' defense, we won't bat an eye when it comes to paying up for him in DFS. Doncic has produced three double-doubles in his last four games and shot at least 50 percent from the floor in all three of those contests. Doncic is a multi-category producer that should be able to continue to grab a lot of boards. He’s pulled down 10 or more rebounds in three of his last four contests. Doncic scored 28 points and logged eight boards and eight dimes when he played the Suns in the regular season. Between the strong shooting in the playoff games and that playing time will always be on his side since he’s the fiercest driver of any Mavs player, Doncic should once again put up between 25-30 shots. The Dallas post players stay on the perimeter for the most part and Dwight Powell doesn’t bring any offense to the table. Doncic will have to constantly drive to the rim to keep the Suns out of rhythm.

 

 

It was very strange seeing the Suns take it easy on Chris Paul’s playing time and tonight he should hit the 30-minute mark. Remember, the final score of Game 1 was not an indicator of the game itself as the Suns had the luxury of preserving Paul while keeping a comfy lead. Paul barely contributed any assists and only scored 19 points. He’s stolen the ball in every playoff game so far. Paul has had success dropping dimes on Dallas this year contributing 11 or more in three games against them during the regular season. While the Mavs' defense versus guards has been strong throughout the year, the dual threat of Chris Paul and Devin Booker makes it hard for any backcourt to contain. We should see Paul on the floor more tonight with those assist numbers boosted, especially with hardly anyone defending the paint. He should hit a lot of cutters tonight.

 

 

Have I mentioned Dallas lacks size? Since trading away Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavs have had to rely on Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber to defend the post – and neither have the strength to stop Deandre Ayton from having his way. Ayton pulled down 13 or more boards every time against the Mavs during the season. In one of the games, he grabbed 17 rebounds in 29 minutes. Ayton was making it look easy in Game 1 by executing simple down-the-middle cuts to the basket. He scored 25 points on 20 shots and there’s no reason to give him any less action tonight because Dallas doesn’t have the personnel to guard him. Ayton has also blocked shots in four of his last five games. He should be able to hit that 10-rebound mark tonight as he’s not even being boxed out. Dorian Finney-Smith can stick a hand in his face when he gets the ball at the elbow, but it will only limit Ayton if he picks up his dribble. If Finney-Smith or any of the other Mavs post players get in his face as soon as he gains possession of the rock, Ayton will blow right by any Mavs defender.

 

 

Devin Booker didn’t shoot that well last game, but he still took 20 shots and he produced enough in other areas to still give us a lucrative return if we rostered him. On DraftKings, he had his strongest game from a DFS standpoint despite having his worst shooting performance in the 2022 postseason. Booker will continue to take advantage of a good matchup vs. Jalen Brunson as he only hit one three-pointer last game and still scored 23 points. Booker pulled down nine rebounds and even dished eight assists and, even if Chris Paul plays a few more minutes, Booker should be able to still grab long rebounds and he’ll get fed a high volume of shots. He scored 24-plus points against Dallas in two of three regular-season matchups. Expect Booker to continue to favor the elbow instead of the arc as he’s been cold shooting from downtown.

 

 

Jalen Brunson shot a dismal 37.5 percent from the floor in Game 1 and he’s in a much tougher matchup defensively against Phoenix, as opposed to the last series versus Utah. Brunson is a fierce driver and he’ll constantly look to sacrifice his body and draw contact. He’ll bring up the ball a bit and he’ll find the opening in the lane to be able to get to the basket because Doncic commands extra attention on defense. We can chalk this up to Brunson having a poor shooting night before we start to worry about for the remainder of the series. If he's not getting good looks and is forcing up shots again tonight, we may have to look to someone else from Dallas to invest in – even though most of the team isn’t that appealing. Brunson scored no fewer than 18 points in any matchup against the Suns during the regular season, though Doncic did miss a couple of those games. Besides scoring, Brunson will also provide production when it comes to grabbing long rebounds, and he’s stolen the ball in each of his last three games too. He’ll continue being the second prioritized scoring option on Dallas. 

 

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