NBA DFS: Playbook and Core Plays - April 15
Published: Apr 15, 2022
Tonight is our final appetizer before the main course which is the NBA Playoffs. We have one more set of NBA play-in tournament games as the last two teams attempt to not have to clean out their lockers just yet. After losing earlier in the week, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks face off for the last spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs and the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Clippers do the same in the Western Conference. Let’s dig a little deeper into these matchups from a DFS perspective along with some picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo.
After the Hawks showed some moxie in the playoffs last season, they took a step backward this year and made things hard for themselves. Now Atlanta needs another victory to find a way back to the playoffs, and it started off on the right foot by blowing Charlotte off the court on Wednesday. Tonight, the Hawks face a Cleveland team that tried to get back into the game against Brooklyn but was ultimately not strong enough. With Jarrett Allen attempting to play, the Cavaliers could get a nice boost tonight, but it’s not something I would read into or rely on.
Injuries:
Jarrett Allen – Questionable (Finger)
Bogdan Bogdanovic – Questionable (Ankle)
John Collins - Out
Player Breakdown:
It’s the playoffs, so that means we must be living in Trae Young’s world once again. While he had a large role in Atlanta’s victory against the Hornets, Young also left a lot to be desired as he shot just eight of 24 from the field. Young still finished with 24 points and 11 assists, and the takeaway here is that volume isn’t going anywhere. Atlanta will once again be relying heavily on Young in what is expected to be a tight game. We know that Young tends to rise to the occasion in situations like this and that puts him at the top of my list.
This game will be decided in the backcourt and from a DFS perspective, the matchup for Darius Garland is better than Young’s. Garland also took 24 shots earlier this week, and he made 13 of them on the way to a 34-point, five-assist performance against Brooklyn. In three of his last four games, Garland had 24 field goal attempts and he will be an interesting option in an attempt to keep pace with Young.
Now this version of Clint Capela is what we have seemingly been waiting for all season. Granted Wednesday’s game did come against a Hornets team that we all know struggles against opponents in the post, but it’s also not a terrible matchup for him tonight either. Capela will continue to benefit from John Collins being out as he looks for his fifth double-double in his last six games. On Wednesday, Capela scored 15 points while grabbing 17 rebounds and he is capable of keeping these performances going.
There is some concern here with the potential return of Jarrett Allen, but I’m not sure how much stock I put into that truly having an impact on Evan Mobley. The rookie is averaging a solid 18 points and eight assists over his last three games as he continues to look comfortable offensively and work well with the Cavaliers’ backcourt.
Caris LeVert is the type of player that often finds success in the playoffs as he does a lot of things well. On Tuesday, that translated to 12 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists as LeVert was quite valuable from a DFS perspective – even though he had a poor shooting night. The guard averaged 16.9 points per game this season and he’ll likely be heavily involved once again tonight.
Based on his track record of experience, Rajon Rondo should play critical minutes off the bench for Cleveland tonight. Rondo only scored seven points in 26 minutes on Tuesday, but his play-making abilities were in full effect as he handed out nine assists. I would expect a similar situation for Rondo tonight, and the price is right.
With John Collins still out tonight, Danilo Gallinari remains in the starting lineup and should continue to be an offensive threat for the Hawks. That translated to 18 points in 30 minutes against the Hornets on Wednesday after the forward scored 26 points in two of his last three games to close out the regular season. The price is right here as we look to build a relatively balanced lineup without too much in the way of risk.
These two teams arrived here in very different fashions. The Pelicans were victorious earlier this week while the Clippers are trying to do things the hard way in a win-or-go-home scenario tonight. It’s interesting to think about what this game would look like if two of the biggest stars (Kawhi Leonard and Zion Williamson) were healthy, but it projects to be an exciting game regardless. With an over/under of 215, it shouldn’t be an especially high-scoring game – but things are now expected to be a lot closer. The absence of Paul George has now flipped the spread in New Orleans' favor.
Injuries:
Paul George - Out
Luke Kennard – Questionable (Hamstring)
Player Breakdown:
CJ McCollum took over in a big way against the Spurs on Wednesday and he finished with 32 points on 12 of 23 shooting. It was a well-rounded performance for the guard as he also added seven assists and six rebounds as McCollum continues to step up in a big way for New Orleans. The ball is going to be in his hands a lot tonight as the Pelicans are going to need a repeat performance if they want to keep pace with the Clippers and advance to the playoffs.
After eight days off, Brandon Ingram showed no ill effects of either rush or his hamstring injury. The forward was quite efficient offensively making 11 of his 19 shots as he scored 27 points in 30 minutes and was a large reason why the Pelicans advanced. New Orleans will need a similar performance out of Ingram tonight, and the price isn’t too bad either.
We can expect Reggie Jackson to be hoisting up a ton of shots again tonight, and chances are he’ll make a good amount of them. Actually, let’s be honest here, with Paul George sidelined tonight, I’m not sure we can truly conceptualize how many shots Jackson takes tonight. While we know there is a limit on how much Jackson can possibly shoot, and there will be four other players on the court with him, his track record does precede him. From a match-up perspective, things should be easier for Jackson tonight as he doesn’t have to face Patrick Beverly again after being hounded into turning the ball over five times. Jackson added seven rebounds and five rebounds, and there’s no harm in following the usage here.
Scoring will have to come from somewhere tonight for the Clippers, and the situation is ripe for Norman Powell to step up. Powell is coming off a 16-point performance against Minnesota but that came in just 26 minutes of action and tonight I would expect to see his workload be a lot closer to 40 minutes as the Clippers have to pick up the slack for George. On the season, Powell averaged 18.9 points per game in 32 minutes so efficiency works in our favor and we know that the guard can be counted on as an offensive threat.
As we talk about offense for the Clippers, Terance Mann emerges on our radar as the likely first man off the bench. If the situation is favorable, and tonight it should be, Mann has no issues scoring in bunches, but he is coming off a game that saw him score just two points in 15 minutes as he made his only shot.
New Orleans leaned on its studs to beat San Antonio and I would expect that game plan to continue tonight. Jonas Valanciunas was able to exert his will as the center made nine of his 14 shots from the field which was good for 22 points and 14 rebounds. While on the slightly upper scale of what we saw Valanciunas produce this season, it’s certainly nothing unreasonable either.
Dominate your NBA DFS Showdown contests today using our Player Projections that you can use specifically for Showdown!
FD | Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Trae Young | Reggie Jackson | Rajon Rondo |
| SG | Darius Garland | Caris LeVert | Terance Mann |
| SF | Brandon Ingram | Norman Powell | Larry Nance |
| PF | Evan Mobley | Danilo Gallinari | Jaxson Hayes |
| C | Jonas Valančiūnas | Clint Capela | Ivica Zubac |
DK | Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Trae Young | Reggie Jackson | Rajon Rondo |
| SG | CJ McCollum | Norman Powell | Cedi Osman |
| SF | Brandon Ingram | Lauri Markkanen | Terance Mann |
| PF | Evan Mobley | Danilo Gallinari | Nicolas Batum |
| C | Jonas Valančiūnas | Clint Capela | Ivica Zubac |
Y!Daily | Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Trae Young | CJ McCollum | Reggie Jackson |
| SG | Brandon Ingram | Norman Powell | Cedi Osman |
| SF | Herbert Jones | Marcus Morris | De'Andre Hunter |
| PF | Evan Mobley | Danilo Gallinari | Jaxson Hayes |
| C | Jonas Valančiūnas | Clint Capela | Ivica Zubac |
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.