NBA DFS: Playbook and Core Plays - April 12
Published: Apr 12, 2022
The NBA two-game play-in tournament should provide an incredibly fun DFS slate tonight. Gone are the days of worrying about players being benched or having their minutes managed. The stars will be out in full force tonight as we look at who to include in our DFS rosters. Who are the Core Plays and best options in the NBA tonight? Let's dig deep into the analysis for the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves.
Eastern Conference 7-8 Seed Play-In Game
Even though the Nets have to make the postseason by way of the play-in tournament, Brooklyn has the second-best odds to win the East in many sportsbooks before this game tips off. Will they be able to withstand the gauntlet of the Eastern Conference if they don't have Ben Simmons and Joe Harris? Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are both transcendent postseason players, and the oddsmakers are predicting a relatively easy win for them tonight. The Cavaliers come crawling into the postseason with just a 9-15 record since the All-Star Game. The loss of their frontcourt due to injuries has done severe damage to the once-powerful defense that propelled the Cavaliers to a surprise third in the East. Can they recapture that magic for one night?
Injuries:
- Seth Curry - Probable
- Goran Dragic - Available
- Joe Harris - Out
- Ben Simmons - Out
- Jarrett Allen - Out
- Collin Sexton - Out
- Dean Wade - Out
Player Breakdown:
It's the postseason, which means it's officially Kevin Durant SZN. For his career, Durant averages 40 minutes, 29.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game in the playoffs. But even those numbers pale in comparison to the 34.3 points per game he averages in 12 career playoff games with the Nets. Over their last 30 games, the Cavaliers have allowed the third-most three-pointers per game to power forwards. It's going to be bombs away tonight for Durant and there is no way Lauri Markkanen or Kevin Love can slow him down.
Kyrie Irving has his own playoff swagger and reputation of course. He averages over 23 points per game and almost five assists in the postseason over his career. As they have been torched by opposing frontcourts with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen injured lately, they have actually played point guards well. They allow the seventh-fewest points to the position over the last 15 games. However, Irving averages 46.4 fantasy points in two games against them this season including 22.5 points and 8 5 assists.
The Cavaliers are the third-worst team against centers over their last seven, and I'm not even sure Evan Mobley returning can get them all the way back to the defensive greatness they had pre-injuries. Andre Drummond has schooled them for 38 fantasy points per game in just 23 minutes on the floor. Imagine if he were to get 30 minutes per night at that point-per-minute rate. He is already on a streak of at least 31 fantasy points in five of seven games and is very affordable at his salaries tonight (DK $6,500, FD $7,100).
Darius Garland has had to be Mr. Everything for Cleveland with all their injuries lately. Some of the pressure should be off tonight with LeVert and Mobley back in the fold, but he still will be counted on for massive production and strong defense. He has been giving DFS managers everything they need over the last month. In each of his last 10 games with at least 30 minutes, he has scored no less than 36 fantasy points including over 45 points eight times. He should see 36-38 minutes tonight and the Nets are the sixth-worst team against point guards this year.
Evan Mobley looked like he hadn't missed a beat in his two games back from a three-week injury. He averaged 40 fantasy points in just 27.5 minutes over those two games and was back to grabbing every rebound and blocking every shot just like he was pre-injury. The Nets have been very good against centers this year, but Mobley still averages more than 30 fantasy points per game against them in his two matchups.
Caris LeVert is also now healthy at the right time, is playing well, and is just the fifth-most expensive shooting guard on a slate with just two games. Considering the lack of options without Sexton, LeVert is a near-lock to play 38 minutes tonight for Cleveland – which means he is WAY too cheap on FanDuel at just $5,400. Even at $6,900 on DraftKings, I will have some exposure.
Western Conference 7-8 Seed Play-In Game
Unless we see some kind of Willis Reed-esque entrance for Kawhi Leonard tonight for in this game, Paul George is going to have to put this Clippers team on his back and carry them to the next round on the road. The spread on this game is extremely tight (Minnesota -3), but you can find Clippers with even better odds than that at some places. Los Angeles comes in on a five-game winning streak and George is peaking at the absolute right time. The Timberwolves had a masterful second half of the season, but were unable to make it to an automatic berth so will settle for a home game for the chance to face the Grizzlies. Post-All-Star break, Minnesota has the third-best offensive rating in the league while the Clippers are the ninth-best defense. This game may come down to who controls the pace. Minnesota is number one in pace since the All-Star game and wants to run while the Clippers are ranked 26th and prefer a half-court style.
Injuries:
- Luke Kennard - Questionable
- Kawhi Leonard - Out
- Jason Preston - Out
Player Breakdown:
Paul George demolishes the Timberwolves just like he demolishes everyone, tuning them up at a rate of 46.8 fantasy points per game this season. Minnesota can try and put Pat Beverley or D'Angelo Russell on him, but his size is just too much for those guards to handle. On the season, the Timberwolves allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.
Reggie Jackson is, without a doubt, too cheap on FanDuel ($5,700) and Yahoo ($23) for the role he will have to play tonight and for how he has performed against the Timberwolves this season. Jackson's minutes were managed the last week of the season so that he could be ready to play up to 40 tonight. That's good for DFS managers as he has averaged exactly 1.0 fantasy points per minute against Minnesota this year.
Ivica Zubac has taken a slight lead over Isaiah Hartenstein lately for the role of most productive Clippers' center. Zubac is on a streak of four games in a row with at least 33 fantasy points despite never playing over 25 minutes. The Timberwolves rank 26th in rebound rate over their last 15 games, so that could really benefit Zubac in this matchup tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns' relatively poor play against the Clippers this year (35 points per game in 33 minutes) doesn't jive with the fact that the Clippers allow the 10th-most fantasy points to centers on the season. It looks to be completely fluky as Towns' field goal percentage against them (42%) is significantly below his seasonal number (53%). If he can get the shooting touch back tonight, his salary on FanDuel ($9,700) and Yahoo ($39) will look too low for the usage and opportunity he should have tonight.
Rostering Anthony Edwards is quite the roller coaster in DFS. Just in the past 10 days, he has games between 29 and 69 fantasy points, just depending on if his three-pointers are falling and he is crashing the boards. The Clippers are in the top half of the league in allowing the fewest points and three-pointers to small forwards and their 34.5% field goal percentage allowed on threes is seventh-best in the league. I'll be rostering some Edwards tonight in case he pops off, but I won't be going crazy with it.
D'Angelo Russell is firing on all cylinders as we enter the postseason, shooting 48% from the field and averaging 39.4 fantasy points in the last 10 days. That's caused the salaries to creep up over $7,000 which is tough because he was much easier to roster when he was in the $6,400-$6,800 range. But there is no question about the usage tonight. He has seen over 23% usage in seven of his last nine games and should play 36 minutes in this one.
Dominate your NBA DFS contests today with our Player Projections, Lineup Generator, & Draft Percentage Forecaster
FD | Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Kyrie Irving | Darius Garland | Reggie Jackson |
| SG | Paul George | D'Angelo Russell | Caris LeVert |
| SF | Anthony Edwards | Lauri Markkanen | Marcus Morris |
| PF | Kevin Durant | Evan Mobley | Kevin Love |
| C | Karl-Anthony Towns | Andre Drummond | Ivica Zubac |
DK | Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Kyrie Irving | Darius Garland | Reggie Jackson |
| SG | Paul George | D'Angelo Russell | Caris LeVert |
| SF | Anthony Edwards | Bruce Brown | Marcus Morris |
| PF | Kevin Durant | Evan Mobley | Kevin Love |
| C | Karl-Anthony Towns | Andre Drummond | Ivica Zubac |
Y!Daily | Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Kyrie Irving | Darius Garland | Reggie Jackson |
| SG | Paul George | D'Angelo Russell | Caris LeVert |
| SF | Anthony Edwards | Bruce Brown | Marcus Morris |
| PF | Kevin Durant | Evan Mobley | Lauri Markkanen |
| C | Karl-Anthony Towns | Andre Drummond | Ivica Zubac |
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.