In last week’s schedule breakdown we looked at targeting players with favorable schedules for specific fantasy stats. For instance, I liked J.J. Redick’s schedule for three-pointers, and he came through with four made threes Monday against the Timberwolves and again Wednesday against the Magic.
One category I ignored last week was free throw percentage. I feel pretty confident asserting most fantasy players would not consider looking at the schedule to try to gain an advantage in free throw percentage, and I believe that is a mistake.
One way to try to gain an advantage in free throw percentage is by looking at the opponents’ free throw attempts statistic. Obviously you need good free-throw shooters to improve your team’s percentage, but you also need attempts. It is great that Shane Larkin is a 93.3 percent free-throw shooter this season, but if he continues to attempt fewer than one free throw per game, he cannot help your fantasy team.
When I first looked at the opponents’ free throw attempts stat, I was surprised by the disparity between the teams that allowed the most free throws and the fewest. The Nuggets have allowed opponents to shoot nearly 10 more free throws per game than the Hornets and Jazz. If you get a good free-throw shooter against a few teams that foul a lot, that could make a big difference, especially in head-to-head leagues.
I definitely recommend you peruse the opponents’ free throw attempts list yourself, but in a lot of ways the teams at the top and the bottom are the ones you would expect. The Spurs and Grizzlies are among the teams with the fewest free throws allowed; I believe they are just too smart to commit a lot of dumb fouls that allow their opponents to get to the line. The Cavaliers’ opponents have attempted even fewer free throws, probably because you need to actually try on the defensive end in order to commit any fouls. Cleveland’s lack of a rim protector probably accounts for their place on this list as well.
On the other end of the list you have the least talented, least disciplined teams: Denver, Phoenix, both Los Angeles teams, the Knicks and the 76ers. Those are all pretty good matchups anyway, but especially if you are looking for free throws. The following players are worth targeting based upon their schedules next week, which for our purposes runs from Monday, December 8 to Monday, December 15.
Rodney Stuckey, Indiana Pacers (Home vs. Hawks, Home vs. Clippers, Road vs. Raptors, Home vs. Trail Blazers, Home vs. Lakers) I really could have any one of four different Pacers for this spot. Stuckey probably needs to be owned in more leagues anyway now that he is back from his foot injury, but considering he is a career .828 foul-shooter who shot .836 from the charity stripe last season and .837 this season, he gets the nod over C.J. Miles and C.J. Watson. All three can help your team’s free throw percentage this week, as the Clippers and Lakers are both in the top five in opponents’ free throw attempts. George Hill would be another solid pickup if he can ever get healthy, as he was a .807 foul shooter last season and .808 for his career. Indiana’s schedule gets even better after next week, as they face the Nuggets, Pelicans and the Clippers again.
Shawne Williams, Miami Heat (Road vs. Suns, Road vs. Nuggets, Road vs. Jazz, Home vs. Bulls) Now that Dwayne Wade is back, Williams is only playable in deep leagues. In those leagues, he could be useful this week. Opponents have shot more free throws against the Suns and Nuggets than any other teams this season, and the Bulls have been in the middle of the pack, thanks in part to dumb fouls like this one.
Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder (Home vs. Bucks, Home vs. Cavaliers, Road vs. Timberwolves, Home vs. Suns) Adams will not help you with free throws, but fortunately he will not attempt enough to hurt your fantasy team a whole lot, either. Adams can help your fantasy team with blocks, rebounds and field goal percentage, and Oklahoma City’s upcoming schedule sets up great for that. The Timberwolves and Cavaliers have allowed the highest opponents’ field goal percentage inside five feet of any team in the league, while the Suns are eighth. Minnesota has also allowed the highest opponents’ field goal percentage from five to nine feet, at nearly 50 percent. The Suns are the third-worst team in the league in opponents’ rebound rate, while the Timberwolves and Bucks are also in the bottom half of the league. Adams is a fringe starter in shallow fantasy leagues, but this schedule makes him worth picking up.
Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (Home vs. Wizards, Road vs. Hawks, Home vs. Hawks, Road vs. Raptors) Payton is averaging five assists per game this season, which is good, but not quite good enough to offset his poor shooting. He is like a poor-man’s Rajon Rondo, which is not exactly a compliment this season. It could be worth it to play Payton next week, as the Hawks have allowed the second-most assists per game this season, while the Raptors have allowed the seventh-most.
Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings (Home vs. Jazz, Road vs. Lakers, Home vs. Rockets, Home vs. Pistons) Since getting off to a very slow start, McLemore has scored in double-digits in 12 of his last 14 games, including seven straight. He is still available in a lot of shallow leagues, and the schedule sets up nicely as the Lakers and Jazz are the worst and third-worst teams in the league in defensive efficiency.
You can find help in the schedule for every fantasy category if you know what stats to look at. Not every pickup will help you in every category, but you can get help in the right categories if you dig a little bit deeper.