Xfinity Series Championship DFS Expert Picks & Lineups: NASCAR Xfinity Playbook

We have reached the final race of the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series season and the Championship Four are locked in. Last week, Aric Almirola got his third win of the season running a part-time schedule for Joe Gibbs Racing and it was his second victory this year at Martinsville. 

With Almirola winning, the championship field is set as Austin Hill, A.J. Allmendinger, Cole Custer, and Justin Allgaier contend for the 2024 title. It is unfortunate that Chandler Smith wasn’t able to win his way into this race given that he has talent, but no ride lined up for 2025. 

But that doesn’t mean he can’t go out with a bang at Phoenix. Let’s take a look at the top NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race DFS Picks ahead of Saturday’s qualifying session.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race DFS Picks & NASCAR Lineups

NASCAR heads to Phoenix once again to determine its champions for all three series. Unlike the Craftsman Truck Series, the NASCAR Xfinity and Cup Series make an additional trip to Phoenix in the spring so we have a larger sample size to pull data and track history from.

Phoenix Raceway is a one mile “short” track with relatively minimal banking. And we have tracks such as New Hampshire, Iowa, Martinsville, and Richmond to pull data from for comparison. Very few tracks are like Phoenix though. That doesn’t make this track great, but it’s certainly unique. It’s mostly that damn dog leg that gives it such a unique feature because the cars can really fan out very wide in an attempt to make passes.

Aside from that, if we get long, green flag runs the racing can be boring and stale. The good news is that this is the NASCAR Xfinity Series where chaos and nonsense reign supreme. If we look at the last seven races at this track, where they were each at least 200 laps, we see about eight or nine cautions on average for about 50-55 laps. 25% of the race being run under caution is never fun, but at the same time our NASCAR DFS lineups will need them because drivers can’t really pass well on the longer runs.

Multiple dominators will likely be the approach once again as we look at how the last handful of races have played out at Phoenix. Three drivers led at least 50 laps here in the spring. Two led at least 65 in the championship race a year ago. However, We have seen a few drivers the past few years lead over 100 laps. Since the start of 2021, those drivers have gone on to win or finish second but there were also some drivers in the same race that led 20+ laps with and finish well. So I don’t project one particular driver running away with 150+ laps led on Saturday because there are non-playoff drivers that can certainly get most of the laps led, and Joe Gibbs Racing does not have a driver eligible for the driver’s championship.

The Xfinity Series will have qualifying around 4:00pm ET on Saturday. Check back for updates in RED Saturday evening for the finalized driver pool for the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race DFS Picks. We will likely have just two hours to finalize our lineups from when qualifying ends to when this race goes green.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race Practice Notes

Top-Price NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race DFS Picks

Cole Custer – DraftKings: $11,000

So DraftKings really didn’t know what to do with pricing for this race. For the Truck Series and the Cup Series, they made the championship drivers the four most expensive options for each slate. However, that’s not the case for this race. Cole Custer and Justin Allgaier are the two most expensive, while Austin Hill and A.J. Allmendinger are the seventh-and-eighth most expensive options on this slate.

It’s odd but I get why they’re doing it. Joe Gibbs Racing has two drivers who we’ll get to shortly that have little regard for the championship drivers. But Custer won this race a year ago to claim the 2023 crown. He won with 42 dominator points after starting P7. He was the absolute class of the field and deserved to win.

Custer even went on to grab a top five finish here in the spring with 61 laps led and he finished first or second in the first two stages. It’s easy to see why he’s a favorite to go out and win this race for his second straight NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship.

Update: So Custer (Starting P7) starts behind Austin Hill who is also eligible for the championship. Custer also starts in front of A.J. Allmendinger, who is another championship driver. Custer won this race a year ago and probably has the best car among these three to get out front and cruise to another title.

Justin Allgaier - DraftKings: $10,800

Allgaier ran a slow lap in his backup car so he didn't get heat in the tires. He'll be starting from the rear in his backup car after wrecking in practice on Friday. He was going to have to start at the rear anyway, so the fact that he didn't try in qualifying does put him in play as a big PD play even in a backup car. The team was pretty confident they would win this race whether they were in the Championship Four or not. And don't forget, he was leading this race in the spring with five laps to go before running over some debris that ruined his day. We don't really know if they were able to match the setup for the spring car but we do like the PD.

Aric Almirola – DraftKings: $10,500

It’s not that Justin Allgaier’s a bad play. He’s racing for a championship and we know he’ll be pushing to run up front. But Joe Gibbs Racing and the Toyotas have no reason to help the Chevys or Fords. We’ve seen Almirola win two playoff races and he’s not even a full-time driver. He doesn’t care about the drivers championship. He cares about getting paid and helping JGR with the owners championship, and this 20-car has nine wins on the year.

We’re also at a track that is made for Almirola. It’s a short, flat track after all and this car is phenomenal. Short, flat tracks are his bread and butter as he demonstrated twice this year at Martinsville. He got into a wreck in the spring at Phoenix, but I won’t hold that against him. He was $500 more last week and put up over 100 points on DraftKings. He can certainly do that again on Saturday. Update: So Almirola is going to a backup car and will start at the rear for Saturday's race. We will adjust our outlook on him based on where he qualifies because that's where he'll be scored from. During practice, Brennan Poole's engine blew and leaked oil on the track. Almirola, Justin Allgaier, Brandon Jones, and Parker Kligerman wrecked and will be going to backup cars for this race. Allgaier and Almirola were at least able to unload their backup cars in time to run laps with them.

Additional Update: So Almirola did log laps with the backup car in Friday's practice session. During qualifying on Saturday he intentionally ran a slow lap to just get a feel for the car and he wanted to avoid getting too much heat in the tires. He was going to have to start at the rear anyway and luckily he'll be scored from dead last.

Chandler Smith – DraftKings $10,300

Here we have Chandler Smith, who was obviously disappointed after last week’s result at Martinsville that resulted in him slapping Cole Custer. But this could very well be Smith’s last race in NASCAR as a full-time driver. He’s admitted he may go work for his dad’s construction company, but I imagine he’d get part-time opportunities going forward. Fortunately, this is a good track for him to end the year on a high note.

In three Xfinity Series races at Phoenix, Smith has an average finish of 4.7 and he won this race in the spring with 46.75 dominator points. Even in the Truck Series, he never finished worse than third in four races at this track and collected a win in 2021.

Smith also has two Xfinity Series wins at Richmond and he led 34 laps last week at Martinsville. It’s not hard to imagine Almirola and Smith dominating this race leaving the championship four to fend for themselves.

Sheldon Creed - DraftKings: $10,000

So you can actually build lineups with Creed, Allgaier, and Almirola. It can work surprisingly. Creed isn't in the Championship Four but he is starting on the front row and has countless runner-up finishes in this series.

Mid-Price NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race DFS Picks

Sammy Smith – DraftKings: $9,800

Obviously, this isn’t a true “mid-price” for Sammy Smith, but I will provide updates once we know the starting order and feature more drivers in this range. But aside from the three above, Smith might just be my fourth favorite potential dominator.

Smith has raced at Phoenix four times in his Xfinity Series career with Joe Gibbs Racing and Jr. Motorsports. He has top 10 finishes in all four races and won in the spring of 2023 with 92 laps led. Smith also has three finishes of third or better at Martinsville and he was the runner-up last week to fall just short of qualifying for the championship race.

He’s another short, flat track specialist and that’s reflected in the pricing as he’s more expensive than two drivers actually eligible for the championship. Update: He starts P15 so if you can afford Creed at $200 more, I'd prefer to go there for the early dominator potential.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $9,200

We have a $9,200 price tag for a driver that’s eligible for the championship. Given how I value and view the drivers in the $10K range, I do like this discount on Allmendinger. He’s going back up to the Cup Series in 2025, but he’s mentioned previously that he really does want to win a championship in NASCAR and he doesn’t care what level it’s at. This is a great opportunity for him to land himself in the Hall of Fame with a title to his name.

He knows he doesn’t need to win the race. He only needs to beat three other drivers. Allmendinger didn’t have a good race here in the spring, but he does have some top five finishes at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. 

The short, flat tracks haven’t been great for him this year. He wrecked at both Martinsville races, he wrecked at Iowa, and he finished outside the top 10 at Richmond and New Hampshire. But it’s an all-or-nothing approach for Dinger this weekend so I may buy in one last time. And I think he understands winning the race isn’t a reality. But he only needs to beat out Custer, Allgaier, and Hill. Update: I'm downgrading Allmendinger slightly. He starts P9 and anything could happen. Unfortunately, it sounds like he hates his car following qualifying. He was complaining about the lack of grip and how he's already having issues with the brakes. He's live for large-field GPP's but I'm less optimistic on this play following qualifying.

Connor Zilisch – DraftKings: $8,500

Zilisch gets a nice mid-range price tag as he is back in the 88-car for Jr. Motorsports. We last saw Zilisch at Homestead where he finished 12^th but that’s a solid effort for a debut at a tough track.

Zilisch got a win at Watkins Glen in his Xfinity Series debut and even finished fourth at Kansas. What I do like about Zilisch for this race is that he’s running the Truck Series race Friday night so extra laps never hurt anybody. 

For what it’s worth Carson Kvapil grabbed top five finishes in this car at tracks like Martinsville, Dover, and New Hampshire. So the equipment is good enough to contend and Zilisch can pilot it to a top five Saturday night. Update: He starts P21 and won the ARCA race on Friday. He may go overlooked with most DFS players trying to force three $10K drivers into their builds.

Value NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race DFS Picks

William Sawalich – DraftKings: $7,700

Sawalich’s two attempts in the NASCAR Xfinity Series have not gone well so far. But he has qualified well at least. At Homestead he started P12 but finished 24^th. And last week he started P15 but didn’t finish the race. But he is set to race full-time in the Xfinity Series next year with Joe Gibbs Racing.

And that is why I’m going back to him this week. This is still a Joe Gibbs Racing car on a flat track. Sure, Chandler Smith and Aric Almirola have more upside but Sawalich is still a young TRD prospect with potential. There really isn’t much pressure on him for this race so hopefully he can put the pageantry of this race in the rearview so he could just focus on getting a top 10 finish.

Last year in the Truck Series, on a part-time schedule, Sawalich grabbed top 10 finishes at Martinsville, Richmond, and IRP. And so far this year he finished top 15 at IRP, Milwaukee, and Martinsville. Update: He's on the pole and in a JGR car. The only downside is that he starts next to Creed who is in similar equipment. But if Sawalich can get enough dominator points early in this race, he could be optimal with a top 10 finish. Keep in mind he logged extra laps in last night's Truck Series race.

Parker Kligerman – DraftKings: $7,500

In keeping with a theme for this race, it’s the final full-time race for Kligerman. He doesn’t have much to race for this weekend as he’ll transition to broadcasting and things of that nature next year. But he’s finished 12^th or better in each of the last six races entering Phoenix.

Earlier this year he finished eighth at this track and has even done well on the comparable short, flat tracks. He finished 12^th at Martinsville-1 and eighth last week. He was also 11^th at Iowa and seventh at New Hampshire. It definitely sucks to see Kligerman go but for a driver in this price range, he’s returned 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings 13 times this season. Update: Kligerman qualified poorly but he's in a backup car and was going to start at the rear anyway. Some might be tempted by Brandon Jones ($8,000) for $500 more. But remember, Jones is also going to a backup car and he's Allgaier's teammate. The organization obviously invested more time in Allgaier's backup car than Jones' so I almost prefer the savings with Kligerman over playing Jones.

Daniel Dye – DraftKings: $6,600

This is a pretty friendly price tag for Dye’s equipment. He absolutely smashed the DFS slate earlier this year at Iowa when he started P37 and grabbed a top 10 finish.

But he is a part-time driver for Kaulig this year as he finishes his full-time opportunities in the Truck Series. And that’s another bonus for this race, as Dye is getting extra laps and track time via the Truck Series Championship Race Friday night.

Keep in mind, Dye had some great runs on shorter, flat tracks in the Truck Series this year. He finished top 10 at North Wilkesboro, Richmond, and Milwaukee so this could simply be a good fit for him. Update: He qualified P13 but I actually think he's still playable in GPP's. He started P16 in last night's Truck Series race and got up to as high as fifth but took a penalty late in the race that cost him a lot of track position. Moreover, he went out first in the qualifying session and still laid down the 13th-fastest lap in qualifying despite going out with less rubber on the track.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race DFS Driver Pool