NASCAR DFS Xfinity 500 Playbook: Martinsville Sets Championship Four

Hamlin comes in as the betting favorite to win, at least he was before practice and qualifying. It’s an interesting case though. He’s not exactly been dominate here in the Next Gen car with an average finish of 12.1 and in the last 10 races here it’s 11.1. The last two races here though have seen him finish P6 or better. It’s a near do-or-die situation for his title hopes, like his teammate MTJ, and we’ve seen Hamlin willing to move drivers here to make the Championship race. I think that happens again late on Sunday. Here’s the thing though, we need him to do more than win to hit value. We need a good chunk of laps led and/or fastest laps along with a like top-two finish to hit value.

What a wild Round of 8 it’s been for Larson. First a win at Vegas in dominating fashion then on to dominating sand barrels at Homestead. This weekend he’ll roll off P5 on a track he won at this Spring (starting P19) with a car we’re unsure of the speed in. Sure, it’s a Hendrick car and they’ve been great at Martinsville since the team’s inception, however, just how much does Larson want to go out and dominate this race rather than just keep the car clean and try and learn something in a similar package to what’s on the cars next week in Phoenix? There’s a good shot he leads laps in the middle of the race but does he lock down the win? If he catches late breaks, it’s possible.

It is Martin’s-ville after all right? That explains his three wins in the last 10 races and how he’s dominated here constantly. Now he’s on the pole in a near do-or-die spot for his Championship hopes. That’s the good news, he’ll have a shot at early laps led. The bad news? The pole-sitter, or any driver starting on the front row, at Martinsville hasn’t won here since Spring of 2013. So just because he’s on the pole on a short track doesn’t a cash game play make. Am I more willing to play him in cash here? Sure, but Truex is still better suited for GPPs as a dominator and negative PD upside.

Things are setting up perfectly for Blaney. He’s coming to a track he loves and has done very well at in his career. He has speed, and all he needs is a good run to hold his spot in the Championship Four. Just how good has he been here? In the last 10 races, Blaney has finished P5 or better 60-percent of the time and top-10 70-percent. The average finish of 6.9 in that span is that high even without a win and makes it the second-best mark in the field. Starting P11 gives him good PD upside, especially if he wins, and he has dominator potential as well.

Logano has been a bit of an afterthought much of the year, especially in the playoffs. However, there is little reason he can’t show up and race well this weekend and replicate his Spring run. What did he do in the April trip to Martinsville? Start P15, like he is on Sunday, finished P2 and led 25 laps in between with five fastest laps mixed in. He was the second fastest car in Group B at practice and has consistently raced faster than he’s practiced all year. There’s a chance he’s a sneaky play in terms of rostership based on who’s surrounding him in salaries.

There isn’t a driver in the field with more top-five finishes in the last 10 Martinsville races as Keselowski — 7. The only issue with that stat is that most of them came prior to the last five races; he only has two top-fives in the last five trips to the Paperclip. Keselowski did manage a P4 in this race a year ago, in the RFK car, and has been pretty consistently fast in the short track packages this year. Starting P10 should keep him in that part of the field most of the day with a shot he can nab a top-five. For the value to pay off though we’ll need a handful of PD spots along with dominator points from him so just keep that in mind when building around him.

I discussed this a bit on the podcast, but Reddick’s history here takes a bit of explaining. He’s run well in the middle of races but hasn’t always completed them in the same spots as he should’ve. A perfect example of that is this Spring when he started P6, was P7 at the midway point, ran as high as P2, averaged P8 run position, yet finished P22. The same thing happened in this race a year ago when he ran well but left the race early not feeling well. The speed has long been there for Reddick to run a good race at Martinsville and threaten for top-fives, it’s just a question of can he finish? Perhaps being one great run away from a championship shot gives him that motivation this week.

Here’s the cash game lock for the slate. Busch had a very good car in practice and then messed up his qualifying run to start P31. Ordinarily we’d be concerned with starting that far back at Martinsville, but two things are in his favor. Firstly, he’s Kyle Busch and is better at finding ways to move up than most drivers who typically start this far back. Secondly, moving up at Martinsville has been a trend in the Next Gen car. It hasn’t seemed to be that hard to nab a top-20 even when starting in the 30s in the last handful of races at the Paperclip. That being said though, in GPPs we can likely be underweight on him and still put a winning lineup together from guys with better finishing position prospects.

It’s a win to get in scenario for Buescher. He comes in 43 points below the cutline which means just grabbing stage points won’t help, much. The speed hasn’t been as good the last few races for Buescher and he’s been outpaced by his teammate/owner, but that changed a bit this week. Buescher showed top-10 speed in practice, granted the faster group, and the short track speed has been good for RFK basically all year, including for his win at Richmond. Historically Buescher hasn’t been anything better than so-so at Martinsville but at this price we can get away with him simply moving up a handful of spots.

He might be a bit of a surprising outside pole-sitter, however there is speed here. Not only did he show that in practice, he’s shown it most of the year. In the short track package, he’s been very good at finishing about where he starts and sprinkling some dominator points in as well. Starting P2 should give him a shot to lead some laps and finish top-7 when all is said and done. The one thing to contend with for Gibbs is that MTJ and Hamlin will hold sway in JGR team decisions (when applicable) given they’re still alive for the Championship Four.

Let’s see if I can do this write up without mention the, ah, shall we say “move” in last year’s race. Chastain feels good about the car that they brought this week and he should since it was the setup from the Spring race. That race, you know the most recent one, he started P34 and finished P13 with 31 laps led and four fastest laps. Starting P13 on Sunday should make his trip to the front of the field quicker and longer lasting too. There’s potential for a top-five finish here with how well his Spring setup worked. We can take the practice data with a grain of salt due to the discrepancy in the two group’s practice times.

I’ll admit it, I wish he’d have qualified a bit worse than he did in P6. However, he had the practice speed to back up that starting spot. He’s also finished P9 in back-to-back races here as well. At this price though, if he finishes top-10 and gets some dominator points he’s worth his price tag. That’s certainly a possibility with how much better he’s been on short tracks in the Next Gen car and with the move to 23XI.

Oh Bowman, the forgotten man at Hendrick this year. This week though he’s perhaps my favorite Hendrick play, at least as a value proposition. In the Spring race here he started P23 and finished P11 with a chunk of fastest laps. Could he do that again? Perhaps. The speed at practice wasn’t convincing, though he was in the slower conditions in Group B. His history here suggests that he should be capable of a solid showing with just two finishes outside the top-17 in the last nine races and five P12 or better in the last six events here. That makes him worthy of being a good fit in any build.

With his cryptic retirement/not returning statement on Saturday, does that make him drive a little freer or without as much weight on his shoulders? We’ll see. One thing that’s for sure is that Martinsville has historically been a good track for him. Almirola has finished in the top-10 in half of the last 10 races here including three-of-the-last-four. Starting P12 he might be a bit overlooked with bigger PD plays starting behind him, however, if he finishes P9 or better he hits value without any laps led or fastest laps. On that note he had 36 fastest laps in the Spring race while finishing P6.

If you caught it on the podcast, Briscoe is one of the two SHR drivers that I’m looking at. While Kevin Harvick could finish top-10 (about where he’s starting) Briscoe has laps led upside this week starting P3. We saw him out front here in the Spring race leading more than 100 laps with 47 fastest laps. He started P4 in that race and finished P5. If Briscoe can manage a good finish and get some laps led there is value for him in the mid-tier for GPPs. He could be a popular second dominator choice given the price tag associated with him.

This one is more than just he showed good speed at practice and qualified poorly, though he did. It’s also more than his so-so recent track history. If we look at the loop data in the last two races, Suarez has posted average running positions of sixth and ninth. While he didn’t lock down those finishes, if he can finish off a race here and put the speed in his car to use, there is a good finish waiting in the wings here for Suarez.

It’s hard to tell what speed he actually has in the car this week as he was in the much-hampered Group B in practice. That being said though, he’s run well here in the past with four top-14s in the last five races here. That includes a P12 finish in the Spring. That finish history provides an interesting route to PD for Dillon in a nice salary spot on both sites. He might be more popular than one would think as there are many good options below him for budget plays.

Burton has a P12 here in the past, granted when he started P10. He’s not doing that on Sunday. That being said though, he showed good speed in practice (even in Group B) and this is his team’s home track. The tie in with Team Penske has helped too. There is a risk as he’s not exactly gotten scored with the finishes that the loop data suggests he should’ve had. If he can move up early and hold it, there is value here in PD.

On the off-chance that the speed in practice was real and not just a product of being in the faster track conditions, let’s include him. He’ll roll off P30 and hasn’t exactly lit up the scoring here in the past, but Lajoie has still run okay. In six of the last nine races here he’s posted a P26 or better finish including two top-20s. He’s worth the shot in GPPs but be weary of him being lapped starting this far back.