NASCAR DFS Verizon 200 Playbook: Chase Elliott Tries To Top Shane Van Gisbergen

MTJ won at Sonoma and got back to his winning ways. Now he’s coming off announcing he’s coming back for next year and appears to be totally relaxed. A relaxed MTJ is a good thing for JGR and Toyota and those playing DFS. Not to mention the P12 starting spot doesn’t hurt either. He was faster than that at practice and his prowess on road courses should have him moving up pretty well. A lot of builds are going to start with MTJ or the guy next in the playbook, and for good reason, but that doesn’t mean ours shouldn’t either. Just know that he might still be quite the popular play, even as the highest-priced driver on the board this week.

Reddick has won a third of the Gen 7 road races run, including this one last year from pole. He’ll start P2 this time around but will still be a threat to lead laps and challenge for the win. It’s not hard to see a path for Reddick to be in the optimal especially if he gets out early and leads about half of the race, like last year’s 38 laps led. He is still better played in GPPs but we can make a case for him to be a cash game play too with winning and optimal upside.

We all know what Elliott is capable of on a road course, his seven career road wins show that. However it’s been a while since we’ve seen that. In fact, he’s yet to win a road race in the Gen 7 car despite posting the best average finish, 7.8, in that span. Elliott needs a win at this point to make the playoffs and he’s got back-to-back road races to try and get that done. Perhaps starting P3 on Sunday will give him a good shot at punching the ticket on Sunday afternoon as well as helping DFS players win some cash in the process.

It was an interesting practice session for Busch who was complaining of the handling in his car, especially on the right rear in the second-half of the lap. However, that all went out the window in the qualifying sessions where he landed P5. If he can in fact hold a top-five spot, there is value to be had here driving a car that did very well in this race a year ago. If we’re looking at playing one of the top several drivers on the salary scale in lineups, Busch is probably the likeliest to be the lowest played. There is still a shot that his car falls off later in runs which limits him to GPPs only.

Did we all just forget that Bell is a fast road racer? As they pointed out during practice, Bell wasn’t passed on the track by SVG in Chicago but rather due to a mistake. The 20- car looks to have the speed to keep him up front once again this weekend in Indy. Bell will roll off P7 and has as good of a chance as anyone starting in that range of winning. There’s also a chance that Bell is the lesser-played option in this price range as well with a lot of hype on others above him.

It’s a road race and it’s Allmendinger. That’s about all we need to say to be honest. It’s hard to elaborate beyond that aside from saying he also had a great run in Xfinity on Saturday and won this race in 2021. If Allmendinger is going to make the playoffs, it’s going to come on the back of winning either this weekend or next weekend at Watkins Glen so expect his strategy calls to be in line with that thinking during the race. That makes him a potential high-reward play for DFS but if the strategy doesn’t work, then he’s just a so-so play in both formats.

Can we add a third-straight win to Buescher’s run? Is his wife planning on being in Indy this weekend? One thing’s for sure, he’s a talented driver in a fast car right now and we have to pay attention to him. Even when he hasn’t had the best equipment it, and his talent, have shined on road courses. Just how much? Buescher has posted the second-best average finish in the last nine road races run, only behind Chase Elliott. How’s that for a stat? It also hasn’t mattered much where he’s started either as he’s rolled off anywhere from P3 to P32 in that span and still has eight-straight top-10s.

It’s not often that we know the chalk play of the week before cars are on track for the weekend. However, that was the case this weekend when Byron failed tech inspection thrice on Friday and was disallowed from running a qualifying lap. We all know the skill behind the wheel that Byron has and how well he can move up on road courses from the past, expect that to be on full display on Sunday. In the last nine road races, Byron has started outside the top-20 six times and has finished P16 or better in five of them. This isn’t foreign territory for the 24-car team and that makes him a cash-game lock for sure.

Let me get this out of the way first — I know he’s starting from the back and being scored P11. This inclusion is banking on people backing off of him because of that. He showed a good feel for the car in practice, before having the issue in qualifying. The RCR cars have been pretty solid on road courses this year, which is what the 33-car is — a third RCR entry. We’ve also seen what happens when a Supercars driver comes to NASCAR, aka SVG, and guess what, Kostecki is ahead of SVG in the standings right now. Play Kostecki carefully though because if he doesn’t get back to P11 or gets caught in chaos, this is a losing proposition of a play.

The pole sitter on a road course is usually a guy we want in a lineup. However, with this course and this starting lineup this week we may not need Suarez in a lineup to hit. Sure, he looked like the absolute fastest car on the track at practice and qualifying and I’m pretty sure this is the chassis from his Sonoma win last year and SVG’s Chicago win a few races ago. That should give him a shot to lead the earlier laps, but if he slips up with the guys behind him it could be tough getting back to the front and then he’s given up his advantage. That makes him a GPP play just like a normal pole-sitter and with the chaos we expect, we may not need him in a winning lineup.

The other two Trackhouse cars are in the playbook so why not the cheapest option? Chastain has been a bit overshadowed this week with Suarez on the pole and the return of SVG but that doesn’t mean he’s lost his ability to run well on road courses. He’s posted a win, three top-fives, and five top-10s in the last nine road races run. So why is he this cheap? It’s likely due to his subpar showings at ovals of late and not doing much since winning at Nashville, seemingly ages ago now. That just means we get cost savings on a quality driver and car.

The man just gets top-10s at road courses and that’s all he does. Sure it’s not been a good sophomore season for Cindric but we’re coming to his specialty. That has to account for something right? Plus it’s the track his boss owns too. He’s got six top-10s in nine Gen 7 road races and is starting P20 which gives us nice PD upside too. It’s hard to tell how people will play him at this point in the year on a track that he should be very good at.

How many times do I have to say that McDowell is an accomplished road racer? He is, he’s been performing well at them for a while now. McDowell is tied for the second-most top-10s in the nine road course Gen 7 races and has the most top-15s and top-20s in that span too. Granted, he’s starting P4 which is a tad higher than we’d like but he has the skill and ability to stick in the top-10 which is basically all we need from him plus a couple of fastest laps or laps led on a pit cycle.

Gibbs is too good of a driver to be in this price range to be honest. He’s won on road courses before including his first-ever Xfinity Series start at Daytona Road Course. He’s also been very good at bringing his car home clean and in about the same spot he’s starting when in the top-half of the field. That’s what we’re looking for again. If he just brings it home clean we’re looking at a good points day from a guy in the lower-mid-tier of pricing.

What’s to say? He’s starting in the last row and should have a car/experience to nab a near-top-20 finish. That’s a ton of PD upside from him and everyone knows it. Therein lies the problem — his chalk status. He will be incredibly popular in cash and should be decently popular in tournaments. Dan and I talked about this on the podcast and the approach to guys like Harvick and Byron.

The ever-overlooked-Keselowski. We’re at that point again where his teammate/employee is stealing the thunder with back-to-back wins. However, Keselowski has still showed good speed at the same time as Buescher has. Keselowski hasn’t been okay, not great, on road courses of late but there is some PD upside here for a handful of spots with leverage over the field.

Jones has two top-15 finishes at Indy Road in the two races here. He’s been adept at avoiding the chaos here if nothing else. That comes in handy at a high-variance road course like Indy. It’s been an up-and-down year for Jones, and Legacy, but here’s to hoping that he can once more pull off a good, clean, wreck-free, run at Indy road and pay dividends for us in GPPs.

Dillon has been putting in a lot of work at road course racing of late and it’s starting show results. He has five top-20s in the last nine road races and was fighting for the lead at Chicago before wrecking out. While the box scores, so to speak, of the road races this year haven’t been great, the loop data gives him better results than the finishing line. If he can complete a race there’s a good shot for a strong showing here especially with him picking up tricks from Brodie Kostecki.

Prior to landing in the gravel pit, or the kitty litter as it’s called, he had a couple of the fastest laps on the track at practice. Gilliland is also coming off the news of having his option picked up for next year in the 38-car at Front Row which has to give him confidence too. He’s picked up several spots in each road race this year and could be in line for a P15-P17 finish on Sunday. That’s good enough in this spot especially if people bail for him spinning out in practice.

This one might be an odd one for a road course but he has six top-20s in the nine road races in the Gen 7 car and an average PD mark of seven spots a race. Now that he’s starting P34 we can put that to use and hope he can again move up that far. He’s also unlikely to be as used as others in this range because Stenhouse isn’t necessarily thought of as the best driver on a road course.

He was a driver that snuck into the end of the podcast above. He’s starting P14 and has been solid on road courses this year. All Lajoie has to do is basically hold around where he’s starting and we’re good. There is risk that he gets bumped backward from drivers moving up but at this point we have to get different in builds and Lajoie allows for that to happen with solid upside.