In a bit of an odd weekend, the Xfinity Series is with the Cup Series in Richmond for their ToyotaCare 250 and the first in the Dash 4 Cash races. The weather might be the biggest topic for this weekend though. It’s been raining since Friday night and then on Saturday morning it was a lightning delay before it started raining again. Oy, what a great way to start a race weekend.

ToyotaCare 250 NASCAR DFS Strategy

The rain is going to put a wrench in things to be sure. Not only would it be helpful to see the cars on track before setting DFS lineups but it will also force the setting of the lineup via formula. We all know that hasn’t been the best way to do things over the last few years. Richmond over the last few years has been a tough place to pass in most races, though in 2021, the races were won by drivers starting outside of the top-10. It has typically come down to tire wear and pit strategy here, along with some bump and runs being made late in runs. Expect it to come down to that again.

With the field being set via formula, it has given perhaps a bit more PD upside that we would’ve otherwise seen if it had been regular qualifying conditions. This sets up an interesting strategy for DFS. While Laps Led are still important over the 250 lap race, getting some more position differential in the builds will be key too. We should also expect some level of chaos because, well it’s Xfinity, but also it’s a Dash 4 Cash race and thus drivers will be a bit more pushy for spots than perhaps they normally would. One hundred thousand dollars will do that to someone. So for a full build we want one driver who can lead a bunch of laps and then the rest of the build should be high-finishing and/or good-PD plays. For similar tracks we’re looking at Richmond, Phoenix, New Hampshire, and even Gateway and Martinsville.

Xfinity Series Qualifying Results

Now on to the playbook…

Top NASCAR DFS Plays

John Hunter Nemechek - $10,900 P10

Starting P10 isn’t really anything new for him in this style of track. Over the last four similar tracks to Richmond he’s averaged a start of 11.0. Meanwhile he’s finished in the top-five thrice and top-10 in all four for an average finish of 4.0. While he’s not started on the pole in any race this year, he’s led laps in all but one of them. We’ll likely need some fastest laps or laps led from him to really pay off but there’s a lot of faith that he can make that happen.

Justin Allgaier - $10,700 P1 - Dash 4 Cash

Starting first at Richmond is usually a very good thing. We should see him able to get out early and lead laps and rack up some fastest laps. The history here, and on similar tracks is great with six top-fives in the last 10 such races including two wins and a bunch of laps led. However, it might be tough for him to hold off hard-chargers starting behind him, including fellow Dash 4 Cash drivers. He’s really only suitable for GPPs because of the pole-position start that he was gifted.

Sam Mayer - $10,100 P3 - Dash 4 Cash

While it wasn’t the best run for Mayer at Phoenix a few weeks ago, it was still relatively solid. Now he’s starting P3 at a track that his team has been very good at historically when it comes to car setups. Mayer will be a candidate to lead a bunch of laps in this race, especially starting so close to the front. The only question that comes with Smith is just how hard he’ll want to race his team his teammate for the chance at $100K and if that cuts down his upside a tad. I don’t believe it does and there is plenty of dominator chance with Mayer but just something to be cautious of.

Sammy Smith - $10,000 P2 - Dash 4 Cash

Smith won Phoenix a few weeks ago and led 92 laps in the process. That could very much happen again this weekend given he’s starting P2. This is the same package on the cars that they had a Phoenix so he’s likely to be a popular choice, especially as the fifth most-expensive driver on the board. The price isn’t prohibitive either as you can still fit at least one other D4C driver in a build with him as well.

Austin Hill - $9,800 P18

What is it that Hill can’t do right now? He’s been remarkably fast every where they’ve gone and now thanks to the formula, he’s starting P18. Get ready for a popular play with speed as Hill has PD upside in spades and has six top-10 finishes in his most recent eight similar races to Richmond. The sub-10K price tag is nice too as he works in a variety of builds and is just fine for cash and GPPs alike.

Cole Custer - $9,400 P22

Prior to last week, Custer had finished P12 in three straight races. If he does that again there’s value here. We also have the benefit of him starting further back than he did in those three races so we’ll get positive PD instead of negative PD from him. That being said, there is risk of him going backward too which is a tough risk to handle at this price tag. So play Custer at your own risk given the volatility of his early season start.

Riley Herbst - $8,900 P4

Herbst has a strong start to the year going right now with a few top-fives already to his credit. Couple that with his ability to nab top-fives at shorter, flatter tracks and we have a guy who should be able to finish about where he starts. In his 10 prior similar races to Richmond, he’s gained five top-fives and eight top-10s. So if he finishes where he starts and gains a handful of either fastest laps or laps led, we have value at this price. It’s possible he’s also a tad over looked given who’s starting around him and in front of him in the field this week.

Daniel Hemric - $8,700 P5 - Dash 4 Cash

So far this year he’s either started back and moved up or started up and fallen back. That’s not comforting given he’s starting P5 on Saturday. So why in the playbook? It’s a Dash 4 Cash race and he tends to show up for those races better than most and his history of top-10s is pretty good at tracks like Richmond. Granted, a top-10 when starting P5 isn’t anything to write home about, however, if he can find a way to hold his spot, there’s value here. There’s not a ton of win equity here, but we could be looking at a mid-tier sneaky GPP value if everything breaks right.

Parker Kligerman - $8,400 P20

The former super-sub has acquitted himself well in a full-time role in Xfinity this year and that includes moving up 22 spots at Phoenix. Clearly he isn’t doing that this weekend at Richmond but the PD is there for him to move into the top-15 and perhaps a top-10. There isn’t a ton to go off of here with previous trips to the track, given he’s not raced it recently in a series that compares. That kind of unknown though should help lower his played percentage somewhat.

Brett Moffitt - $7,800 P24

Sometimes the formula setting the lineup works in our favor and this is one of those times. Moffitt had a great run at Phoenix a few races ago nabbing a top-15 finish. That could be in store again this weekend at Richmond. He’s been very consistent on this style of track recently with five top-20s and four top-15s. A top-15 gives him the value we need but finishing just shy of that should be fine too.

Ryan Sieg - $7,300 P17

Shorter, flatter tracks are in his wheelhouse with three top-10s and six top-15s in his 10 most recent races on them. Starting P17 might keep some folks off of him a bit but he does have top-15 upside and if things break right, sneak into the top-10. That being said, the floor here is pretty low given where he’s starting without much built in PD which might keep him in the GPP category.

Stefan Parsons - $6,900 P36

Want a free square for PD? Parsons is it. He basically can’t go backwards and even though he’s in the 07-car today which is slightly lower tier equipment, he can make a run. Parsons is a tad riskier for high upside compared to the driver right below him in the playbook as he’s posted just one top-20 finish in six races at similar tracks. However, if he can harness a good run, he’s likely to be lesser played than some around him who have strong track histories and similar starting spots.

Alex Labbe - $6,600 P32

This isn’t the best equipment for Labbe to be sure. However, his ability to overcome the lower grade equipment and turn it into a top-20 finish. In his nine previous races at similar tracks, he’s posted six top-20s and two top-15s. Starting P32 gives us the nice PD upside we’re looking for and the history is there to support it.

Joey Gase - $5,400 P35

We’re in interesting territory here. It’s not like Case is typically a driver we’ve been able to trust, however, we need someone in the cheaper range and Gase is one of them. Over the handful of similar races he’s done to Richmond, he’s moved up five spots. At Phoenix a few races ago he started P33 and finished P26. That’s good enough to be in a budget spot in a GPP build.

Ryan Ellis - $4,800 P23

Let’s go for a bit of an educated guess of a dart throw shall we? Ellis has two top-20s in three similar races to Richmond including at Phoenix a few races ago. In those races, he’s averaged a starting spot basically exactly where he’s starting now but moved up an average of five spots a race. That’s great value at this price tag and one a lot of people likely won’t drop down to find.