NASCAR DFS South Point 400 Playbook: Round of 8 in Las Vegas

Vegas Baby! The South Point 400 is the opening race for the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. This is the second time the Cup Series has raced at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this year with the first race being back in March. In some respects it’s the perfectly place to host the first shot at the Championship race since everyone goes to Vegas to make their winning dreams come true. In other respects, it doesn’t fit since what happens in Vegas won’t stay in Vegas and in fact will travel 4.5 hours south to Phoenix. How are we building NASCAR DFS lineups for this second race at Vegas? Do the playoffs matter for NASCAR DFS here? What do we mean by Las Vegas Motor Speedway being called a “track-position” track? Are there going to be tire issues in the race like we’ve seen at practice? All of that is broken down in this week’s NASCAR DFS playbook for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

South Point 400 NASCAR DFS Strategy

To be honest this was going be a different strategy segment before practice and qualifying started. That’s just what happens when things don’t necessarily go according to plan. Just ask Chase Elliott and Daniel Suarez about that. So, how are we building DFS lineups now? For cash the answer is fairly simple. We’re loading in a few big PD plays and then we’re filling in with drivers who can nail down good finishing positions who might already be starting reasonably close to the front. If you can get a laps led leader in that group too, all the better. For GPPs, or tournament builds, we’re looking a little more nuanced. Sure, it’s tempting to start with two big PD plays, but there’s something to be said for fading them in case they don’t pan out. The biggest way to move up the leaderboard in tournaments is to be different with drivers having good days and leading laps. Laps led will be important here with 267 as the scheduled distance. That leaves plenty of points for drivers who can stay out front at a track that gives preferential treatment to cars starting close to the front. In the past here, successful lineup construction has come down to a great mix of drivers starting in the top-10 and the ones who can move up through the field to finish top-10 who aren’t the most popular plays.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Track History

We’ve heard a lot about Vegas being a “track-position” track but what does that mean? Well, it suggests that it’s hard to pass here, but that’s not entirely true. In fact, it’s not really all that true at all. Sure, winning the race is certainly made tougher by starting outside the top-10 in the grid, but it’s still possible. In 19 of the 31 races here for the Cup Series, the winner has started in the top-10 including a serious run of late. However, when we look at the trends below, over the last five races, we still see drivers moving up through the field, just not moving much further up once they reach the top-10. It’s also important to note that with tire wear squarely in play this weekend, and more grooves in the track, it’s racing more like Kansas these days than Texas. That’s good news for the product on track but could also make building lineups a tad tricker than normal. The temps are expected to be warmer Sunday than they were Saturday not they’re still in the neighborhood of where they were in March for the last race here.

Below are key stats for the last five races at Vegas:

South Point 400 Practice And Qualifying Results

The following table shows where each driver ran for practice over short and long-run speeds compared to where they qualified. We can use this to find some position differential plays and some GPP plays for the race based on qualifying spots.

DraftKings Scoring History At Vegas

The following chart shows the scoring by position over the last five Vegas races. It’s regardless of the driver in those starting spots, and why they started there, to show the general race flow and strategy. It’s not a hard-and-fast rule but it does a good job of showing over the long run how things typically pan out for DraftKings lineup builds.

FanDuel Scoring History At Vegas

The following chart shows the scoring by position over the last five Vegas races. It’s regardless of the driver in those starting spots, and why they started there, to show the general race flow and strategy. It’s not a hard-and-fast rule but it does a good job of showing over the long run how things typically pan out for FanDuel lineup builds.

Playbook

Kyle Larson

He looks fast once more. When he’s fast he’s hard to beat, unless he beats himself either with a wreck or a car issue. That’s likely to be the case again this weekend. The car was fast in practice over the short and long run and was nearly fast enough to land on the pole. Speed has never really been a question with Larson, it’s always been can he finish with that speed. There’s qn interesting argument to be made to play him in cash if he leads enough laps to nullify the positional downside he has, I’m still of the belief that he’s better suited for GPPs though.

Denny Hamlin

The practice speeds and qualifying pace wasn’t good for Hamlin, again, but that’s to be expected at this point. He spoke to that on his podcast this week. The trick with Hamlin is that he races with better pace than he practices or qualifies with. That’s where the upside comes in, along with him starting P15. Not only does Hamlin have the most PD upside of any of the drivers in this range, but he also has late-race laps led upside as well. He’ll fit for any build we want to build.

William Byron

Byron won this race in the Spring. He’s also won three of the nine similar races this year and has been the most dominant car in those races as well. It’s hard to argue against Byron in any meaningful way for either cash games or GPPs even with a P3 starting spot. What you can make an argument for is Byron being the most popular driver in this range.

Tyler Reddick

It’s been a long season but sometimes that’s good for a driver and a team. That’s the case for Reddick. At the beginning of the year Reddick had growing pains but of late, he’s been great at these tracks. In the last five similar races he’s landed in the top-five three times. The speed appears to be there again based on practice and qualifying P8. He doesn’t need to win to have value but if he finishes P4 and leads some laps we’ll get value out of him yet.

Christopher Bell

For the sixth time this year, Bell is on the pole. The only time that’s really worked for him was Bristol, a markedly different track than Vegas. So there is some trepidation with this play even though we’ve seen laps led leaders from the pole before at Vegas. Just know that he has a weird history with pole positions this year and not dominating the way we’d expect from a driver of his ilk and speed.

Ryan Blaney

It’s been undeniably a weird year for Blaney and Team Penske as a whole really. That being said, it can all be put to rest if he wins here and notches a shot at the Championship. The thing is we don’t need him to win, just to run well. Starting P12 like he is means he’ll hit value with a P5 or better finish or more dominator points for each spot further back he finishes. The issue with Team Penske much of the year has been that the cars have gotten slower over the long run but at practice on Saturday that seemed to be solved. If that’s the case, there’s good upside here.

Kyle Busch

Sometimes it comes down to patterns and this is the case for Busch. Over the nine similar races this year Busch has had two good ones followed by a bad one. He had that bad one last time out at Texas. Now comes his home track with top-10 speed in the car looking to restart the pattern. There’s also the fact that he’s under the radar this week and surrounded in the pricing by other drivers who have more perceived upside than Busch.

Chase Elliott

He, like Suarez below him, wrecked in practice due to a tire going down and didn’t qualify. That puts him starting P35 and makes him basically a free square for PD. He’ll be popular given it’s Elliott and starting P35 at a price that isn’t a problem at all.

Joey Logano

Sometimes no matter how badly the rest of the season has been going, a driver shows up well at a track. Vegas is usually that track for Logano. He’s been fast here basically every race in the Next Gen car and that’s the case again this weekend. For some reason, Logano has shown up with top-10 speed and a top-10 starting spot. If he can keep that speed over the long runs here, and not have the car get loose like what’s been happening this year, Logano could very well be a sneaky pick for GPPs with solid finishing upside.

Bubba Wallace

We should know by now that he’s been a very strong play at this distance for much of the last two years. This year he has six top-seven finishes with five of those being top-fives. The Toyotas have been great at this distance and even with him out of the playoffs now, Wallace is still a threat to win and certainly a threat for top-fives and complicate things for other playoff drivers.

Brad Keselowski

For all of the credit that’s been flowing to Chris Buescher — and rightfully so — Keselowski has actually had the stronger résumé at intermediate tracks this year. Only Harvick and Byron have better average finishes this year at these tracks than Kes. Pretty good huh? He’s also tied with Wallace and Byron with six top-10s in those nine races. There is PD upside here and most people might lean toward Buescher but Keselowski has been stronger all year.

Ross Chastain

You may have seen the tweets this week with the Vegas dome photoshopped to have a watermelon on it. Funny as that was, it’s time to focus on bringing speed to the track for Chastain. Believe it not, he’s been doing that relatively well at tracks like Vegas this year with the fourth-best average finish in those nine races in the field. Backing that up are three P7 or better finishes in the last four such races. Starting P10 on Sunday should give him a shot to challenge for another one.

Kevin Harvick

He might be my favorite play this week that no one is talking about. There hasn’t been a lot of reason to talk about him this year to be fair, except when he gets DQ’d for failed inspections. This week, however, there are big-time stats in our favor. Harvick has posted the best average finish in the nine similar races this year of anyone in the field — 9.1 — and has finished worse than P11 just once — P19. Starting P24 is slower than his long-run speed was at practice and given his ability to get more out of the car than he should, that adds a few more spots of PD as well.

Daniel Suarez

Do we really have to explain it? He’s starting dead last, will be scored that way, and has been a top-15 car in speed much of the year at intermediate tracks. If that shows up again on Sunday, sans tire issues, he could easily be an optimal play in every format.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

How many times have we said that Stenhouse is better at intermediates than he gets credit for? A lot to be honest. In the last nine similar races to Vegas this year, he’s posted an average finish of 15.2 with five top-15s. The speed he showed at practice flashed top-15 at times before qualifying P30. See the upside? Yeah, so will a lot of other people so he’s likely to be a popular play in a variety of builds, especially those capitalizing on PD with some other higher priced drivers.

AJ Allmendinger

Fresh off a big win at the Charlotte Roval, we’re turning back to Allmendinger for some PD upside. These haven’t typically been his best tracks but the speed is there this week to allow him to move up. That’s all we really need here to be honest, though it is a bit more than we’d like. Allmendinger needs a top-15 finish to hit value at this price. He has the speed to come close but he’ll need better luck at an intermediate than he’s had previously this year.

Carson Hocevar

Fresh off the announcement that he’s in the 77-car for Spire for next year we’re putting Hocevar in the playbook. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s posted a good record at intermediate tracks in his time in the Cup Series. Hocevar has run three similar races to Vegas and finished top-20 in each of them. With him starting P25 and running slightly faster than that at practice he could be in play for another top-20 run in the 42-car.

Ryan Preece

We’ve talked about Preece at short tracks but how about intermediates? He’s finished P23 or better seven times in nine similar races this year. That’s a pretty good record that’s resulted in an average PD over around five spots. He’ll roll off P32 on Sunday which invites several spots of PD for Preece from a guy who may not be played that much in builds given his team’s lack of results much of the season.

Justin Haley

His teammate has gotten a lot of attention this week following the win at the Roval. However, has anyone paid attention to how good Haley has been on similar tracks to Las Vegas? Haley has two top-10s, four top-15s, and five top-20s in the nine similar races to Vegas. That’s good for an average finish of 16.8 with an average start of 26.3. That tells us he can keep the P20 starting spot he landed in qualifying.

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