NASCAR DFS Quaker State 400 Playbook: Fords Look To Dominate Atlanta

It’s his home track and he’s won here previously. There’s also the fact that Elliott is the only driver in the field with multiple wins in the last nine plate races. Elliott needs a win at this point in the season, and while there are plenty of chances for a driver of his ability to get a win, this presents one of the best chances outside of the two road races. The Hendrick cars didn’t qualify as well as we typically see on tracks like this but if the cooler temps in the evening play into their setup, expect a good night from Elliott to still come to fruition.

He flat-out dominated the last race here. He’s also, like his teammate right below, has run well at intermediates this year. So again if it races like a plate track, it’s hard to ignore Logano and if it races like a 1.5-mile, it’s hard to ignore Logano. The only thing to be careful of is his draft percentage as he’s likely to be popular given how fresh in everyone’s mind’s his win here is.

Let’s put this this way. If it races like a plate track, we’re talking about a driver with the best average finish in the last nine plate races, the most top-fives, and most top-10s in that span as well. If it races like a standard 1.5-mile track he’s posted great speed at those, including winning the Coke 600, and he’s starting P2 which should give him laps led upside pretty early too.

We get that drivers have bad luck at tracks like this and Chastain has had his fair share and then some. When the bad luck hits though, he’s been running close to the front generally speaking. That’s why he’s here. If he can simply finish off the races where his run position suggests he should be, there’s value here even before he qualified P30.

Keselowski nearly won this race earlier this year and finished P5 at Talladega. It’s not a shock he finished well given his bona fides at plate tracks. We’ve seen the RFK Fords picking up speed of late and staring P11 he should have plenty of chances to get to the front of the pack and hang there. Being priced at the top of the mid-tier is a bit of an underpay for a driver of his ilk this weekend.

The cheaper of the two RFK drivers, Buescher has finished P4 and P3 in two of the three plate races this year. At Atlanta he started P7 but wrecked out and finished P35. This time around he’ll roll off in P15 which does have some risks to it as we typically like to avoid mid-pack drivers. It’s just that Buescher’s record at plate tracks is too good to simply ignore him, we just have to play him cautiously.

It was a disastrous qualifying for Wallace as he couldn’t even finish the warm up lap thanks to an issue with the car. The good news here is that a) they have found and fixed the issue which appeared to be an oversight in setup and b) he’s starting dead last. That means we can’t possibly get negative points from him. We’re also in a great spot to get a ton of PD points from him given his skill at these types of races that he’s shown previously. He’ll easily be the most popular cash game play but we might get leverage in GPPs given how many drivers have PD upside.

While most people focus on Chase Elliott or William Byron for plate races, Bowman shouldn’t be overlooked; and that was before qualifying P36. He’s been quite solid in his own right even when starting close to the front. Bowman has finished P5, P14, and P14 in the three plate races this year and that’s from starting spots of P1, P15, and P27 respectively. If Chevy can sort out the handling issues, or they right themselves in the evening temps, we could be looking at the highest scoring driver here.

He won Daytona and has always been a threat at these types of races. He did voice a bit of concern following qualifying that his car might be on the edge handling wise. However, for those that are concerned with the words Stenhouse and handling in the same sentence, the teams can adjust the cars for more of a race trim between qualifying and the race. If he can keep the 47-car clean, he does possess a good amount of PD upside.

He might be young and relatively new to Cup racing, but that hasn’t stopped Gibbs from producing well at plate tracks. That includes finishing P9 at Atlanta earlier this year as well. He’ll roll off P7 on Sunday as the only Toyota to crack the top-10 and appears to have the speed to hang around the top-10 much of the night. Or at least until his teammates arrive to help him hang with the Fords. The starting spot isn’t necessarily a problem either as we’ve seen lineups succeed with two drivers starting in the top-10 here in the past.

Perhaps an unexpected pole sitter for Sunday but it’s not like he doesn’t have a history of performing in these races. While the stats are pretty impressive for pole-sitters at Atlanta recently let’s be a bit cautions of Almirola dominating like we’ve seen Logano and Elliott do in the past. If Almirola does manage to stay out front, we could get leverage given that Blaney is likely to have a higher draft percentage than Almirola.

While he’s not done much since winning the Daytona 500 last year, he’s still in a Ford and driving for Team Penske. Those two things automatically bump up his value in a race like this. He showed speed in qualifying and has consistently ranked in the top-10 for percentage of laps run in the top-10 over the last several similar races. Now if only he could finish off a race there that would be nice.

We’ve started thinking of Suarez as a road course guy or a play on intermediates whenever he has speed. However, that’s selling him short. On the last nine plate tracks, Suarez has five top-10 finishes which ties for second-most. At Daytona and Talladega this year he started P24 and P22 respectively and finished P7 and P9 respectively. He’s starting P26 on Sunday evening and has the title sponsor of the race on his 99-car.

Over the last nine races at Atlanta, Daytona, and Talladega, Jones has the fifth best average finish at 14.1. He’s also posted an average of 5.6 in that span which, among drivers with at least four of those races run, ranks eighth-best. One last thing on Jones’ side? He ranks fifth in average driver rating in that span too. Add in the PD he offers after a tough qualifying and the upside is there for Jones.

He ran earlier this year at Talladega and did a solid job. In the GEICO 500 he started P31 and finished P23 with 12 fastest laps. Hill is in a similar starting spot this weekend and we’re less concerned with iffier equipment this weekend given how similar everyone’s cars are in the plate package. He could be a sleeper and a differentiator for tournament lineups.

This is one of the tracks that Lajoie and the 7-car team circle heading into the season knowing they have a shot to win. Why shouldn’t they? He’s brought the car home P5 or better twice in the three Atlanta races including earlier this year. He’s not a guy who’s a shock to see up front late in plate races and he’s led laps in them as well. Starting P28 with his ability makes him a popular play on the board.

Do we really have to explain this one? He’s a highly successful plate racer in his Truck, Xfinity, and Cup careers and is coming off an impressive showing last week in Chicago. Even if he puts up a similar stat line to what he did in the Coke 600, starting P16 finishing P15 with one fast lap, he’ll hit value but there is a risk that he gets caught up in something if he doesn’t get out of the mid-pack.

While we could look at Harrison Burton in this part of the salaries too, we’re favoring Gilliland for a slightly worse starting spot and a better plate history. This year Gilliland has finished P15 and P10 at Atlanta and Talladega and has three top-15 in the last four plate races. That’s enough for us to believe he can hang around the top-10 much of the race and pick up another finish there.

It’s a plate track and that means Dillon has a shot at being valuable for DFS. Aside from Daytona when his engine immediately failed, Dillon has finished P23 and P17 at the other two plate tracks. He’ll roll off P27 and if he snags a spot just outside the top-20 he’ll bring value.