NASCAR DFS Playbook & Top Plays: GEICO 500

Talladega! The huge track in Alabama that packs a ton of excitement and wrecks is next up for the NASCAR Cup Series. The aptly-named GEICO 500 is on tap for Sunday for 500 miles of side-by-side racing. We’ve seen two plate races this year already in the Cup Series at Daytona and Atlanta but now it’s time for the biggest track of all the ovals and the fastest speeds as well. What that we saw at Daytona and Atlanta can we use for Talladega for NASCAR DFS? What has happened in the past races at Talladega that we can use to build winning lineups? Who are the top drivers to play for the GEICO 500 on DraftKings and Fanduel? All that plus the weekly race preview below!

Weather Forecast At Talladega

The forecast has improved some for the GEICO 500. Sure it’s still likely to rain on Sunday but in the morning as the percentage of rain after 1pm local time is down to 20-percent. That’s good news for getting the race in completely, but it might still be delayed for drying depending on how late in the day it rains.

Race Trends at Talladega Superspeedway

There are some bizarre stats in the table below aren’t there? For example, the lead lap finishers is higher than we’d normally think right? I mean last year we saw nearly 30 cars finish on the lead lap here despite some big wrecks. Other stats we’d expect to see like the numerous double-digit position differential plays per race and the over-50-percent top-10 rate. However, no one cracking 50 laps led in any of the last five races is a bit interesting. Obviously drafting plays a role in how many laps a single driver will lead, but there are typically long stretches at Talladega where single-file racing takes over and we get one leader for a chunk of a stage.

DraftKings Scoring Trends at Talladega

The chart below shows the average points scored based solely on starting spots over the last five Talladega races. It’s an effort to show the strategies that work here and not necessarily hard-and-fast rules to follow when building lineups for DraftKings.

FanDuel Scoring Trends at Talladega

The chart below shows the average points scored based solely on starting spots over the last five Talladega races. It’s an effort to show the strategies that work here and not necessarily hard-and-fast rules to follow when building lineups for FanDuel.

How To Build A NASCAR DFS for GEICO 500

So given the weather, the trends, and scoring history, how are we building DFS lineups? The old adage of “stack the back” works just fine for cash games. However, that won’t win a ton of tournaments. In order to win tournaments, we’ll need the race winner in the build and in the last 10 races at ‘Dega, the winner has started no worse than P19. In fact, if you’re hoping for a driver starting outside the top-20 to win, that hasn’t happened here since Fall of 2014 when Hamlin won from P34. Avoiding the wrecks is obviously paramount but it’s also important to realize that it was tough to pass here last Spring when there weren’t cautions or green flag pit cycles. So rather than building like Daytona, we’re going to build with a slight bias toward the front half of the field and only a couple of drivers starting after P25.

Top Tier Salary Drivers To Play For Talladega

Ryan Blaney

Blaney is the only driver with two wins in the last 14 similar plate races, both of which came here. He’s posted the best average finish in that time too. Now he’s starting mid-pack with the ability to move up and still have a shot to win, though based on the stats above that’s unlikely. We need at least 45 pts from him which means a top-seven finish or better.

Brad Keselowski

Keselowski hasn’t had the best luck at these races this year finishing P33 at both Daytona and Atlanta. However, his CV is still filled with great runs at Talladega previously. Starting mid-pack makes him dangerous for two reasons, firstly it’s still close enough to be a threat to win and secondly it’s in the hornets nest for wrecks. There’s risk here, but isn’t there everywhere, but if he survives there’s also leverage as recency bias and starting spot might keep him lower played.

Chase Elliott

Now that he’s ended the long winless streak, is there another win coming at a style of racing in which he’s been quite good consistently? Starting inside the top-10 would indicate he has a great shot to win a second in a row since seven of the last 10 winner here have started P11 or better. With all of the bigger names starting in the back and folks expecting chaos we may actually get lower-owned Elliott in DFS.

Mid-Tier Salary Drivers For GEICO 500

Bubba Wallace

Blaney has the best average finish at these tracks but Bubba has the second-best. He also has a win at Talladega to his credit. He’s the best Toyota driver at these tracks at this point as well which bodes well for him. It hasn’t much mattered where he’s started either as he can typically hold his spot or move up which is also a benefit. There are multiple paths to value for Wallace at this price too.

Ross Chastain

He, like others in this write-up, has a win here. That’s not the only reason he’s in the playbook though as his aggressive nature plays to his advantage at a track like this. It’s not always those who are patient and let the field play out that do well at ‘Dega, it’s also the hyper-aggressive go-getters that do too. Expect Chastain to be moving toward the front quickly and looking to stay there at all costs. Up front is almost always the safest place to be.

Austin Cindric

Do we see laps led from him and a shot at a win like Daytona a couple of years ago? Possibly. Given that he has the team that typically does well at these tracks, a car make that typically does well at these tracks, and his history, he’s got a good shot. Cindric might be a popular play in this range for the laps led in case the field drives single-file for a while and conserve gas.

Austin Dillon

Starting P5 is the first time we’ve seen him with this kind of speed this year and guess what it’s with Justin Alexander at the helm. Most of Dillon’s Cup wins have come at plate tracks including at Talladega. There was better speed in the 3-car last week, granted not a plate track but still encouraging. Based on the last few races here, drivers starting in the top-10 can hold their spot and if he can do that or stick in the top-10 he’s got value.

Daniel Suarez

If you haven’t been paying attention, Suarez has sneakily been one of the better plate racers in the field over the last year and change. He has five P11 or better finishes in the last seven such races. That kind of consistency is too hard to look past at this point and price.

Value Tier Drivers For Talladega

Corey Lajoie

It’s a plate race and it’s Lajoie, the two go hand in hand like peanut butter and jelly. He has these races specifically marked has his best chances to perform well and perhaps nab a win. It’s showing too as he ranks eighth in average finish in the last 14 similar races and is tied for fifth with in terms of top-10s. That’s solid consistency for a guy this far down the salary lists with PD to boot starting P31.

John H. Nemechek

Nemechek has shown a knack for moving up in these races whether he starts in the top-10 or the back of the grid. He’ll start mid-pack this time around which should give him a shot at a top-15 finish. Nemecheck should also give us some leverage for DFS as a guy who’s overlooked starting mid-pack.

Daniel Hemric

If there’s one style of racing that Hemric has been good at in this Cup return it’s been plate racing. He moved up quite well at both Daytona and Atlanta previously. IN his six recent Cup plate races he’s posted an average finish of 23.7 and he ran well in these races at the Xfinity level as well. If he nabs another top-20 finish there is plenty of value here.

Anthony Alfredo

Fast Pasta as he’s known has been good at these tracks in the Cup Series and the lower series as well. He moved up 12 spots at Daytona with 10 fastest laps and he could pull off a similar race on Sunday at a super cheap price.

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