NASCAR DFS Playbook & Top Picks: Great American Getaway 400

The Tricky Triangle of Pocono Raceway is the host for this weekend’s Great American Getaway 400. Pocono Raceway is one of the more unique tracks in NASCAR with it’s famed triangular shape. With there being just one race a year at Pocono how are we approaching this race for NASCAR DFS? What are the similar tracks to Pocono and the car setups there that we can use to pick drivers? Are there race trends from the past races here that we can study? All of that plus the practice and qualifying results and top drivers for the Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono!

Pocono Raceway Race Trends

When we look at the table below, there are a few trends that stick out that are different than other recent races. While track position is typically talked about a lot at Pocono, 34% of the top-10 finishers have come from outside of the top-12 starters. That includes a few recent winners. In that vein, we see that an average of 6.2 drivers a race move up 10 or more spots. So for a track where we think of it being tough to pass, there are position differential chances here.

The other side of that coin though is the laps led and running up front. The vast majority of the laps led here in the last 5 races, 85% to be specific, have been led by drivers starting in the top-10 in the grid. Along with that though comes the fact that not a single driver has led 100 or more laps in a race in that time. With 160 laps in the race, it’s unlikely to see a driver dominate that much. Pit stops and occasional cautions will shuffle the order up front enough to allow for one dominator but not more.

NASCAR Practice and Qualifying Results For Pocono

Below is a table showing the practice and qualifying results for Saturday’s sessions. It’s sorted by qualifying order and shows the difference between the short and long run averages. It’s designed to show the drivers who may hold their spots or move up throughout the race on Sunday.

DraftKings Scoring Trends At Pocono

The following chart shows the average scoring on DraftKings by starting spot over the last five Pocono races. It’s designed to show the strategy involved in building lineups for the race. The drivers, cars, nor reason for starting there are taking into account with these scoring averages.

FanDuel Scoring Trends At Pocono

The following chart shows the average scoring on FanDuel by starting spot over the last five Pocono races. It’s designed to show the strategy involved in building lineups for the race. The drivers, cars, nor reason for starting there are taking into account with these scoring averages.

NASCAR DFS Strategy For Great American Getaway 400

With everything we see above, what is the strategy we’re employing for building lineups this weekend? The first thing we’re looking for is a single laps led dominator with a secondary one who can nab another 20 or so laps led. Drivers who start in the top-10 are more likely to finish there than drivers who can move up and finish there. So if we’re hunting finish position points, we’re looking to get a couple of drivers who are starting in the top-10 to solidify those points. After that we’re leaning hard into the big PD upside plays as they are possible here. Even though we hear passing is tough on track, and it is, the teams with the best pit strategies and long run speed can make up spots in chunks. Lapping isn’t a big issue here given the size of the track but, if a penalty happens on pit road it can have big effects on track and locking drivers a lap down. We will also have different plays than we typically see listed below, that’s because with how practice and qualifying broke down, we’re trying to avoid some of the more chalk plays.

Top Drivers To Play This Week

Top-Tier Driver Plays

Denny Hamlin

There’s been no one better at Pocono than Hamlin in recent memory. The 7-time winner at Pocono is trawling for a win here once more and has the long run speed to be a factor if the race stays green. Even at this price tag, he’ll be a popular play thanks to his consistency this year and his history at this track with an ability to lead laps and perhaps win as well.

Martin Truex Jr.

This is one of the several home tracks for Truex and his last trip here. Truex has been very good at Pocono of late having posted a P9 and P3 finish in the last two respectively. The only driver better in the similar race sample has been Denny Hamlin and this week it appears that Truex has the upper hand in speed. If his consistency at these tracks and this specific track shows up again on Sunday, he is a dark horse to get the win.

William Byron

Byron has been very clear that he wanted to bring better speed to Pocono than he did last year  when he led 60 laps from the pole but finished P14. The better speed appears to have shown up with P2 runs in short and long run metrics on Saturday. He’ll start P2 and could be a dark horse to lead a bunch of laps but the speed alone should keep him in the top-five pretty much all day.

Tyler Reddick

Reddick has finished P2 in back-to-back races at Pocono which bodes well for his run on Sunday. The other thing that bodes well for him is that he’s improved by a finish spot each of the last 4 races from P6 to P3 last week. Reddick also put up some of the best lap times in practice over the short and long runs. We’ve seen the Toyotas be fast at these types of tracks and Redick has been the fastest of the bunch.

Mid-Tier Driver Plays

Ty Gibbs

Being on the pole here has typically been a good way to lead a bunch of laps. Couple that with the recent speed he’s shown at intermediate tracks and that’s a recipe for a good day. However, he is on the pole which gives 0 in the way of PD potential. That will limit Gibbs to a GPP-only play in the hopes that he’s a lap led dominator and perhaps a race-winner.

Brad Keselowski

It’s been clear that Keselowski has had the fastest RFK car over the last several weeks. That appears to be the case again this weekend given the practice speeds. Keselowski also has the track history here as he ranks 2nd in the field in average finish over the last 8 trips here. The 6-car should be good enough to nab another top-10 on Sunday.

Bubba Wallace

Fresh off a $50,000 fine for hitting Alex Bowman post-race, Wallace seems to have turned his attitude around. That attitude adjustment, plus setup of the car, worked for Wallace to be one of the fastest cars in practice. He then got loose in qualifying and will start P29. The speed this week isn’t the only reason to play him as he’s posed three P11 or better finishes in the similar races we’re looking at. If he nabs a top-15 finish, he’ll bring value on Sunday.

Daniel Suarez

Suarez has been fast at tracks similar to Pocono and at Pocono. While he wrecked out last year while racing P12, he did finish P5 here in 2022. The practice speeds flashed top-10 over the short and long runs before he qualified P16. In the five race sample of similar races, Suarez has three P6 or better finishes while the others are crashed out finishes. He’s a tad boom or bust but if he’s boom, we’re in for a good day.

Erik Jones

It’s been a theme for a while now with Jones that we play him on tracks where he’s comfortable on. Pocono is one of those tracks. Over his last 8 races at the Tricky Triangle, regardless of car or team or manufacturer, Jones has 4 top-10s and 5 top-20s. That includes a P11 and P9 in the last two trips with LMC. The practice speeds were questionable, but he tends to over-perform at tracks he likes, like Pocono. Oh yeah, and he won a late model race midweek just for more good vibes.

Value Tier Driver Plays

Todd Gilliland

It’s been a great season for Gilliland and the average finishes over the last six races put him in the top-five in the Cup series. There’s really no signs of stopping either. The speed wasn’t exactly great at practice, but it was enough for him to have a handful of PD upside. Plus the strategy and race speed has been enough to bank on much of the season.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

The last two trips to Pennsylvania have been solid for Stenhouse with a P20 and P7 finish. He’s not thought of as a driver to be played here but the history here and at similar tracks as well. Stenhouse at the similar races, mentioned above, has 4 P21 or better finishes. When all he has to do is hold the throttle wide open, he tends to do quite well. The practice speeds were solid for Stenhouse as well giving some PD upside on Sunday.

Ryan Preece

In his last seven runs at Pocono in the Cup series, Preece has five top-25 finishes. That matches with the speed he showed at practice on Saturday. The qualifying run was mainly due to a misstep during the run more than anything else. That leaves Preece with a decent amount of PD upside and perhaps some leverage for DFS.

Daniel Hemric

This one is a stab in the dark given his relative lack of speed this season. He is coming off good finishes in the last two races, though more due to chaos and strategy than speed. However, this has been a good track for Hemric in both the Cup series and Xfinity series. Three straight top-10s in Xfinity and an average finish of 10.0 in his last two Cup races. He’ll start P27 on Sunday with speed to move up a handful of spots which is all we need from Hemric.

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