NASCAR DFS Playbook Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200: Top DraftKings Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series returns to the Lady in Black at Darlington Raceway! Darlington always provides for some of the most exciting racing for any of the three major NASCAR series so we’re in for a solid weekend. Not to mention, this is the final race of the season where Cup Series regulars can race in the Xfinity Series. Hence why we have names like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Ross Chastain available to us for Saturday’s race. This is a high tire wear track. It’s one of the three biggest tire management tracks when you also mix Auto Club and Homestead into the mix. So let’s put our thinking caps on and take an early look at the drivers to build around for Saturday’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200! That is quite the naming convention they went with for this race.

Darlington Raceway is a crown jewel race. One of the Big Four. We’ve got Daytona, Indianapolis, Charlotte, and Darlington. It’s an older track but measures 1.366 miles in length with 23-25 degrees of banking in the turns. It’s mostly unique because of the egg-shaped layout. The turn radii are different on both ends of the track. And its asphalt surface is very old, hence the heavy tire degradation mentioned earlier.

Saturday’s race will give us 147 laps to work with broken into 45-45-57 lap segments. We’ll have probably 90-100 dominator points to work with so by all means, be sure to try and get two or three potential dominators in your NASCAR DFS lineups. This Playbook is also being published ahead of practice and qualifying. So be on the lookout for updates in RED once we know the starting order.

Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Denny Hamlin ($11,500)

It’s a bit of a premium but Denny Hamlin has a pretty strong resume at Darlington. In 22 career Cup Series races here, he has four wins and four finishes as the runner-up. He’s won at Darlington five times in the Xfinity Series and it’s really the only track he chooses to run when he does opt to race Xfinity. He’ll be in the 19-car for Joe Gibbs Racing so there’s no downgrade in equipment at all. Update: Starts P2 and looked very sporty in qualifying.

Kyle Larson ($11,300)

Larson loves Darlington. Any track where you can run the higher line will play to his strengths. Larson drove this 17-car a year ago in this race at Darlington and only finished fifth with one lap led. That is sort of the risk. This car is likely a top five ride, but we’ll need to monitor the speed and tire fall off in practice. It’ll be hard to play two of the three most expensive drivers for Saturday’s race due to pricing. Plus, you would need both to split the dominator points. He did win this race in the Spring but that was in the 10-car for Kaulig Racing. Update: Didn't have the best track conditions in qualifying and starts P12. Offers PD and could win this race again.

Justin Allgaier ($10,600)

I’m skipping over Kyle Busch because I just don’t think he’ll be worth the price tag with Hamlin and Larson in this race. So we’ll go right to Justin Allgaier. Allgaier has won two of the last five Xfinity Series races at Darlington and he hasn’t finished worse than sixth in this span. In the Spring, he started P17 and finished second, but we’ve also seen some dominant performances throughout his career here. He’s a veteran driver who knows how to manage his tires here. He’s one of the few drivers in the field who can contend with Hamlin and Larson. Update: Starts P3 behind JHN and Hamlin. May not have a ton of ownership because of this.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,300)

Egg on my face for initially leaving JHN out of the Playbook initially. JHN almost won this race in the Spring but wreck coming off the final turn battling for the lead with Kyle Larson. Ultimately he finished fifth but led 57 laps and had a very fast car. He has five wins on the year and won at Auto Club in the Spring so there's plenty of win equity. He pairs nicely with any of the drivers priced above him. Update: Won the pole and also guaranteed a win after the disappointing finish in the Spring.

Cole Custer ($9,800)

Custer should probably be over $10,000 so I think we can enjoy the slight discount. He’s raced here a few times in the Xfinity Series and he’s finished third, first, and second in his last three appearances. Even in the Cup Series he grabbed a couple top 15 finishes. He might be more of a “finishing position” type of play because he likely only leads laps if he qualifies on the pole, but I still love the soft price tag for this weekend.

Austin Hill ($9,600)

I really only like Custer and Hill in this $9K range. Sheldon Creed has the worst luck and I don’t know why Brandon Jones is priced up when he’s had such a bad year in the 9-car. So I’d rather pay for Hill who shows up with speed every week and he has four wins on the year. Hill finished sixth at Auto Club earlier this year and then finished fourth at Darlington. He grabbed top tens in both Darlington races last year and another at Homestead. He even had some great runs at Homestead in the Truck Series with a win and 85 laps led across his last two races there. So given the speed that we see almost every week I’d rather pay up for him than the two drivers priced under him. Update: Hill starts P9 and looks to have speed once again. You can pivot to Creed who offers more PD but he could still be a complete disaster.

Sam Mayer ($8,800)

Mayer was $1,000 more expensive a week ago so I’ll gladly take advantage of the discount. His best results have come on road courses this year, but he did lead 35 laps here in the Spring on his way to finishing eighth. He also has another top five on his resume from the Spring of 2022. He finished second at Auto Club earlier this year and grabbed a top five at Homestead last Fall. He’s a fine high-upside driver this week and he’s priced in the mid-range. He’s a great Tournament option that might have a little win equity too. Update: Starts P5 so doesn't have a ton of PD at his disposal. I'm downgrading him a bit.

Chandler Smith ($8,100)

Chandler Smith is one of the many drivers discounted this week because of the presence of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch. And truthfully, I’m not completely sold on Smith but he’s shown upside on high tire wear tracks. At Darlington, he’s only made one start in the Xfinity Series and it came this past Spring where he wrecked. But last year at Homestead he did finish seventh in the Fall race. He also finished fourth at Auto Club earlier in the year and he won at Richmond, which is a high tire wear, short track. So the sample size is small but I do believe he can surprise with a top five even in a loaded field. Update: Qualified P10. Might limit exposure just to Tournaments.

Daniel Hemric ($7,900)

He’s always a frustrating play and a driver that can have the rug pulled out from him at any moment. Over his last ten races, Hemric hasn’t been too bad. Sure, the road course results at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen aren’t impressive, but he also isn’t a road course specialist. In the other eight races since Nashville, he’s finished top eighth on six occasions. Darlington isn’t one of his better tracks, but he has a couple top ten finishes on his resume. In five races at Auto Club he’s never finished worse than 12^th, and he has three finishes in the top four at Homestead. Update: Still okay with the play in Tournaments because of the salary. But in Cash games Parker Kligerman might be the pivot. Riley Herbst is a good mid-range Tournament play offering more PD.

Ryan Sieg ($7,400)

It’s certainly been a frustrating year for Ryan Sieg. He’s usually a nice mid-range driver that gets the most out of his equipment but he only has three top tens this year and two of them came at Daytona. He had a poor showing at Darlington in the Spring, but he was 14^th at Auto Club and seventh at Richmond. He did have a stretch of five races from 2020-2022 where he logged five straight finished in the top 11 at the Lady in Black. On top of that, Auto Club has also been a favorable track for him of late as well. There’s risk here simply because of the inconsistencies this year, but there’s upside if he offers PD.

Corey Heim ($7,000)

I think I’m okay paying for Heim at this price tag. He’s in the 24-car for Sam Hunt Racing so while it’s no guarantee he finishes, he’s a good enough driver to grab a top ten. He was actually $7,700 for this race in the Spring where he started P24 and finish tenth for 48 fantasy points. Now he’s even cheaper but be warned that he did not finish the other two races he ran in this car at Dover and Pocono. He was pretty impressive in the Truck Series race at Darlington earlier in the year where he led 66 laps and would’ve likely won the race if it weren’t for his late pit strategy. Update: Starts P17. Not as much PD as in the Spring, but still a good play.

Jeb Burton ($6,700)

Very soft price tag on Burton this week. He actually has a lot of momentum heading into the playoffs and he’s already locked in with his win at Talladega earlier this year. Since July, Burton has put up 35+ fantasy points in six races. Are high tire wear tracks his strength? Not particularly, but he did finish 12^th here in the Spring and had some other good runs when he was with Kaulig Racing and Our Motorsports. And in his last ten races he’s finished worse than 13^th just twice. So this is more of an investment on the recent form because he certainly has been running very well. I also think it’s worth keeping an eye on Burton’s teammate, Parker Retzlaff ($6,400), who has shown signs of growth this year. I do have concerns over his lack of experience on high tire wear tracks, but I don’t hate the play if he qualifies poorly. Update: Solid play rolling off from P24. 

Kaz Grala ($6,600)

Grala doesn’t have a ton of experience on high tire wear tracks. But when he has raced on comparable tracks, the results have been decent. He’s only raced Homestead once way back in 2018 but he started and finished 18^th. Earlier this Spring he finished 13^th at Auto Club, and he followed that up by finishing ninth at Darlington in the Spring. He even finished fourth at Richmond after starting P21. So few drivers in this range have Grala’s upside so despite the lack of experience on the comparable tracks, I do think he’s worth plugging into your NASCAR DFS lineups. He did fail tech inspections three times on Friday and still has to pass at some point this morning. So we don’t know the extent of his penalties yet but we can assume he’ll start at the rear and likely have to perform a pass thru. Update: Scored from P30. Haven't seen many updates regarding his penalties but I imagine he has a pass thru for failing three times.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,300)

The value tier will be difficult to navigate this weekend because it’s a high tire wear track and it’s not a great weekend to invest in drivers with bad equipment. That should be the case with Alfredo. However, the price tag isn’t all that bad for a guy that has flashed top 15 upside this year. He finished 15^th here in the Spring and even in May of 2022 he finished 15^th with Our Motorsports. He started and finished 17^th at Auto Club earlier this year and he finished 18^th last year at Homestead. The equipment is still a concern, but he’s shown he can wheel sub-par equipment on high tire wear tracks. Update: Still fine with the play as he starts P23. If you wanted to pivot to Clements, I could see it. You save some salary and get more PD.

Josh Williams ($5,500)

I’m fairly lukewarm on Williams heading into practice and qualifying on Saturday. He’s had some strong results this year three top tens, but he’s finished outside the top 20 in his last six races. Surprisingly, he’s done well on the high tire wear tracks. He finished 16^th at Auto Club and 17^th at Darlington in the Spring. He didn’t have a great race last Fall at Homestead, but he does have three top 20 finishes in six races in South Florida. At Darlington he has four top 20 finishes in eight races. At Auto Club he has only two top 20 finishes in five races, but in one of those races he did finish 21^st. So we’re looking at a driver that finishes top 20 at roughly a 50% clip on high tire wear tracks and he’s only $5,500. If he finishes 20^th for this race that’s 23 fantasy points on DraftKings and we have to assume he’ll start further back and offer some position differential. Update: Starts P37 which probably juices his ownership. Kind of a bummer if I'm being honest. I'm probably laying off in Tournaments because of slightly elevated ownership. Perfectly fine playing him in Cash games. Ryan Ellis and Joe Graf Jr. can be used as pivots.

Brennan Poole ($5,100)

So Brennan Poole’s driver average results are a little juiced because of his time with Chip Ganassi Racing back in the day. He’s now with JD Motorsports so it’s a massive equipment downgrade. However, there’s still room for 20-30 fantasy points on DraftKings. He started P30 and finished 25^th at Auto Club earlier this year. He then started P35 and finished 23^rd at Darlington in the Spring. These aren’t great results, but he’s moving up from where he starts. At the end of the day that’s all we’re looking for from drivers in this range. Even last year at Homestead he started P24 and finished 14^th. That’s probably more of his ceiling. But this is an experienced driver that’s just in bad equipment so I’m fine punting to Poole to get a little salary relief with one of the better drivers in this range.

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