The NASCAR Xfinity Series had a very eventful weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway over Memorial Day Weekend. The race was scheduled for Saturday afternoon, but the weather had other plans last weekend and the race was postponed from Saturday to Monday. And even when it came time to run the race on Monday there was heavy mist that caused two red flag delays and the race had to be postponed until after the Cup Series race and the Xfinity drivers didn’t finish racing until well after dark. And to make matters worse, the haulers had to begin the drive out West from Charlotte, North Carolina all the way across the country to Portland, Oregon on Tuesday. We get our second road course of the season which is my personal favorite track for DFS. It’s the second time the NASCAR Xfinity Series has run here but we know the reliable road course veterans to target for the Pacific Office Automation 147. Here are the drivers and strategies for this weekend’s NASCAR DFS lineups.

 

The NASCAR Xfinity Series ran here a year ago and the race was truly entertaining if you like racing in a monsoon. There were countless wrecks, numerous spins, and Jesse Iwuji being laps down but still wrecking Ty Gibbs. That race had it all. Fortunately for the 2023 version, we are due for some cleaner weather heading into next weekend. Early weather reports on Monday indicate that it’ll be clear skies and sunny. But at this time of year in the Pacific Northwest we shouldn’t have a reliable read on the radar until Saturday morning.

Portland International Raceway is a road course measuring just under two miles in length (1.967 miles to be precise) and it features 12 turns. The IndyCar Series runs here for the Portland Grand Prix and the ARCA Menards Series West has raced at this track the last couple years as well.

The downside for this race is that practice and qualifying will be Saturday around 9:00am PT (12:00pm ET) with the race going green around 1:30pm PT (4:30pm ET). So we’ll likely have the starting order around three hours before this race is set to green. Also, the Craftsman Truck Series and NASCAR Cup Series are in Madison, Illinois (St. Louis area) this weekend. So most of the NASCAR Xfinity Series teams will not have their regular full-time pit crews. This can mean a few things. For starters, we will have modified pit stops between stage breaks. Cars can’t gain or lose position on pit road. We’ll have more clarification ahead of this race, but just know that we shouldn’t expect pit road to play a role in the teams improving their track position in between stages.

Saturday’s race only has 75 laps so we’ll have roughly 45-50 dominator points to work with assuming we have some laps run under yellow. But the name of the game is ultimately nailing the winner and five other drivers that finish well and offer PD. If we collect dominator points in this race, that’s great. It’s a little extra juice for our lineups. But since they’re so de-valued for this type of race, we don’t need to cram them in. However, the modified pits during stage breaks do help the leader potentially hold the lead a bit longer.

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

As always, since this Playbook is being published before practice and qualifying, there will be updates in RED once we know the starting order.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500)

Hard to believe that it took the 12th race of the season for Jr. Motorsports to get a win, but Allgaier came through last week at Charlotte. He’s finished third or better in three straight races entering this weekend and I’ll give him the slight nod over John Hunter Nemchek ($10,600) heading into this weekend as I have a little more faith in Allgaier at a road course. Allgaier was fifth at COTA earlier in the Spring, and he grabbed top five finishes last year at Indy Road Course and the Roval. He does have wins in his career at Road America and Watkins Glen so he should be a favorite for this race since it’s a slightly weaker field this weekend.

Josh Berry ($10,300)

Berry’s had a quiet season in the Xfinity Series. I’m trying to cut him some slack because he’s had to pull double duty with the Cup Series on a handful of weekends as well and he may have been burnt out. But this weekend he only has to focus on this race. Berry’s been a decent road course driver in a small sample size. He finished eighth at COTA earlier this year after starting 15th. He finished fourth in this race last year, then was third at Road America while also grabbing top ten finishes at Watkins Glen and the Roval. He’s a strong play this week with some win equity. The betting lines on DK’s Sportsbook are all over the place, but Berry is actually getting +1800 to win, which is incredibly long for a driver of his caliber and maybe my favorite bet outright for a driver to win this race.

Cole Custer ($10,100)

Custer has definitely struggled this year in his return to the Xfinity Series, but he has three top five finishes in his last seven races entering this weekend so perhaps he’s finding his groove. In last year’s Xfinity race at COTA he did finish third and he was 11th at Watkins Glen. He’s been an okay racer in his career at road courses, but given the watered-down field for this race, it certainly seems like one where he probably has more win equity than normal. As of Friday, Custer is the favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook at +450 to win the race.

Sammy Smith ($9,700)

There are six drivers in the $9,000 range on DraftKings and truthfully, I only like two of them ahead of practice and qualifying. Jordan Taylor is a road course specialist, but $9,300 is a tough asking price. And then Parker Kligerman is priced at $9,200 because he won a Truck Series race on a road course last year? He has not performed like a $9K driver this year and I won’t play him unless there’s PD. But Sammy Smith is one driver I do really like. And the sample size on road courses has been small so he may go overlooked. Smith finished 24th last year at Road America but he did have an engine issue during that race. He bounced back later in the year finishing third at Watkins Glen and he finished fourth at COTA this year. But he does have some additional road course experience from his time in the ARCA Series. He may just be an under-the-radar road course specialist with some hidden win equity, and DraftKings Sportsbook tends to agree since he’s +600 to win outright. Update: Smith went for a spin during his qualifying session because there was some oil on the track, thus posting a terrible qualifying lap initially. He did bounce back to post a better lap and will start in the middle of the pack.

Parker Kligerman ($9,200)

I didn't love Kligerman initially, but he showed speed in practice with the fastest single lap and he probably would've qualified better but he went for a spin due to some fluid on the track and punted some traffic cones in the process so that kept him out of the final round of qualifying. But he starts P14 and has some PD and some win equity. I  do have concerns that he may not finish the race, but he had nice speed in practice.

Sam Mayer ($9,000)

Mayer needs to start proving to Jr. Motorsports that he belongs in this organization. He has one top five finish this year that came way back at Auto Club and he’s sprinkled in some other top ten finishes. But this is a team that expects each of their drivers to contend for wins and so far they have just one all season. At $9K on DraftKings I think Mayer is still a fine play. He wrecked very early in this race a year ago, but overall his results on road courses have been fine. Earlier this year he finished seventh at COTA after finishing fifth there in 2022. He also has a pair of top tens at Watkins Glen, he’s finished 11th and 10th at the Roval, and he was seventh at Indy last year. This is one of those weeks where we aren’t looking at finding value in the traditional sense, but Mayer can still be optimal with a good finish and he’s shown he has top ten equity on road courses. I’d say we want at least 40+ fantasy points from him on DraftKings. Update: Mayer had an incident in practice and didn't post a qualifying lap. He'll start outside the top 30.

Kaz Grala ($8,800)

Grala’s finishes may not be elite, but he’s doing well for us in DFS. Over his last six races, across a variety of different tracks, Grala has gained 74 spots of PD. Now we bake into his fantasy profile that he is an experienced road course driver even though some of his finishes may not reflect that. He did finish top five at Watkins Glen last year, but I do like the recent form for Grala. That’s what I’m banking on this week. The road course background is just a bonus at this point. I will also add that I liked Grala a lot more prior to pricing coming out. I’m not as excited about him at $8,800 BUT if he is offering PD after qualifying then my tune could change once again.

Brandon Jones ($8,600)

Jones, like his teammate Sam Mayer, had an incident in practice and didn't post a qualifying lap. He will also start towards the rear.

Sheldon Creed ($8,400)

If there was ever a week for Sheldon Creed to break through and provide Richard Childress Racing with some confidence in him, it’s this week. There are some road course specialists in this race, but no Cup Series drivers. So we don’t need to worry about the likes of A.J. Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, etc. taking up all the win equity. This is truly a week Creed can win. But that’s not to say he still isn’t immune to shooting himself in the foot and wrecking. He had a top five car here a year ago. He was incredibly fast in practice and was routinely running up front during the race. But the weather was atrocious and on the restart with 20 laps to go, he was one of a few drivers that missed the first turn and when he tried to get back on the track, he rear ended Alex Labbe. But Creed is good on road courses. In the Truck Series he finished first and second in the two Daytona road course races a few years ago. He finished third at Watkins Glen in 2021, and fourth up on the Canadian road course back in 2019. Additionally, he grabbed a top five in the inaugural Truck Series race at COTA in 2021. In the Xfinity Series he has a pair of top ten finishes at COTA, including this year’s race where he led 16 laps and was top two at the end of the first two stages. There is plenty of upside with Creed this weekend, but we’ve also seen the downside as well so he’s strictly just a GPP play, but one that I will gamble on and be overweight compared to the field. Creed might be the 13th-most expensive driver on DraftKings, but similarly their sportsbook has him at +650 to win the race, and those are currently the same odds that Justin Allgaier is getting. Creed was second-fastest in single lap speed and fastest in ten-lap averages.

Riley Herbst ($8,200)

Herbst is struggling of late. He started the 2023 Xfinity Series season with six straight finishes in the top ten, including at COTA. But in his last six races he has zero top ten finishes and only one top 20 finish, which came last week at Charlotte when he finished 14th. He had some success and some failures on road courses last year. He scored top ten finishes at Road America, Indy, and Watkins Glen but also finished outside the top 20 at COTA, Portland, and the Roval. It’s hard to really say this is a “get right” week for Herbst because he could definitely finish top five but he could also wreck, which he’s done in three of his last five races. He’ll be strictly a GPP-only play for DFS.

Myatt Snider ($8,100)

It’s actually surprising this is only Snider’s second race of the 2023 season with Joe Gibbs Racing. He had a great showing at Daytona to kick off the year in February where he grabbed a top five, but they’ve kept him on the bench until this weekend. Despite the awful conditions in this race a year ago, Snider managed to finish second behind A.J. Allmendinger, but he still would lead 19 laps in a Jordan Anderson Racing car. He also managed to finish 6th and 13th at COTA and the Roval but had some DNF’s due to accidents. But this equipment will be great for Snider, arguably the best he’s ever driven in, and it’s an opportunity for him to show what he can do on a road course in good weather.

Ryan Sieg ($7,900)

Sieg isn't a notable road course ringer, but he is capable of a top ten, but a top 15 finish is more realistic. He's a driver to add to your pool in this range to diversify your builds and maybe find more PD. But you don't need to force him in. Prefer him more for Cash games.

Daniel Hemric ($7,800)

Hemric is like Sheldon Creed, where the watered-down field might actually benefit him and DraftKings is looking at his recent results in this series and driving his price down. The recent form has been trash, but he finished sixth at COTA earlier this year and was sixth in this race a year ago despite the elements. Now aside from COTA this year and Portland last year, he has been horrific on road courses so I may only get exposure in four or five Tournament lineups and just try to be slightly overweight compared to the field. Despite the discount there’s no way I’ll play him in a Cash game lineup. I will also say Hemric’s been vocal in the last year about always picking A.J. Allmendinger’s brain whenever this series came to a road course. Dinger is one of the best road course ringers in NASCAR so any information or knowledge that he may have gained can only help him here. Update: Hemric qualified P10 which puts him in play as a Tournament option. If you want a little more PD then Parker Retzlaff or Dylan Lupton would be the pivot.

Alex Labbe ($7,000)

This should come as no surprise if you regularly read my NASCAR DFS Playbooks when covering the Xfinity Series on a road course. Labbe is a pretty good road course driver and I’m curious as to what he could do if given better equipment on this type of track, similar to Myatt Snider getting a ride with Joe Gibbs Racing this week. Despite the weather in this race last year, Labbe did grab a top ten after starting P23. He finished sixth at the Roval last year (and has an average finish of 8.0 there in his last three races). And as high variance as Indy’s Road Course can be, he has an average finish of 11.0 at that course in three career races. Despite the low-to-mid-level equipment, he gets the most out of it and DGM does know how to set their cars up for road courses. Update: Qualified P15 so only use him in Tournament builds.

Jeremy Clements ($6,700)

Clements will never blow us out of the water and the clear weather this weekend might cap his ceiling. He’s a good road course driver who has won on a road course previously, but that was years ago. He’s still on a small team, but one that has four straight top 20 finishes coming into this weekend. Clements started P25 earlier this year at COTA and finished 14th. He got caught in a wreck in this race last year, but he scored top ten finishes at Road America and Watkins Glen while scoring top 20 finishes at Indy and the Roval. He’s a good value play with a strong resume on this type of track. Update: Was looking like he may contend for the final round of qualifying but was kicked out late in the qualifying session. Starts P20 and looks to maybe have top 12 upside.

Connor Mosack ($6,400)

Mosack is $2,400 cheaper than Kaz Grala despite being in the same equipment. Truthfully, I might give more exposure to Mosack when we consider the large disparity in pricing. Mosack has a background that caters to this kind of race and he had a top 20 earlier in the year at COTA. He did get into a wreck in this race a year ago, but bounced back at Watkins Glen in August with a top 15 finish with this team. He’ll be in plenty of my Tournament lineups if he qualifies outside the top 20.

Josh Williams ($6,000)

Everything I said about Alex Labbe’s equipment can apply to Josh Williams’ as well. In fact, DGM Racing is only entering two cars this weekend (likely due to the travel costs getting everything out to Portland). So I don’t think that spreads the investment in the cars too thin by entering a third ride. Williams isn’t as good of a road course driver as Labbe is, but he certainly has momentum having finished 23rd or better in five straight races with four finishes of 19th or better in that span. He finished 22nd here after starting P31 last season, and he has some top 20 finishes at courses like Indy Road Course, Road America, the Roval, and Mid-Ohio. Like I said, he doesn’t have the upside of Labbe but if he offers PD, he’s capable of driving this car to a top 20 finish and he can pay off the $6K price tag if he gets some PD.

Kyle Sieg ($5,300)

We nailed Sieg a week ago at Charlotte where he finished 11th at under 10% ownership. He even helped one of our NASCAR DFS subscribers win over $5,000. I’ll go right back to the well with him this week. We know the ceiling, but we also know the floor. It’s probably the smart thing to lower expectations for him given that he doesn’t have a ton of road course experience. He started P38 at COTA and finished 26th for a respectable day in DFS. That’s literally the only experience he has on road courses in the Xfinity Series. So practice and qualifying will be huge for him this weekend. He’s probably in the best equipment among the other drivers in this range, except for Joe Graf Jr., who is his teammate after all.

Leland Honeyman ($4,800)

This is as cheap as I’ll go unless Honeyman is starting in the top 15. But he is driving for Alpha Prime this weekend and by comparison, Dylan Lupton is priced at $7,400 and Jeffrey Earnhardt is priced at $5,900. Honeyman has run three races this year and he collected top 25 finishes in two of those (Richmond and Martinsville) while finishing 27th at Phoenix. Are these good results? Of course not. But he’s under $5,000 and so I’m perfectly content with him providing 20 fantasy points on DraftKings. And if this turns into a high variance race like last year, because we know how dangerous those first few turns are here, then maybe Honeyman can move up and finish well simply by avoiding the carnage and completing laps. The ceiling isn’t very high unless he starts at the back of the field, but if you need a punt in either Cash games or Tournaments, then Honeyman allows you to allocate money elsewhere. Update: Qualified very high at P21 so he's ideally just a punt for Tournaments. Garrett Smithley might be the cash game pivot if you need to go this low since he starts P35 but you run the risk of rostering a driver that may not finish.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

The Core Plays will be published in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel no later than 3:00pm ET.