NASCAR DFS Playbook Daytona 500: Ryan Blaney Looks For First Win

The analysis for Hamlin is simple. He’s won The Great American Race thrice and has seven top-10s in the last nine runnings of it. That’s by far the most in the field in both categories. His average finish is also easily the best. It hasn’t mattered where he’s started in those races either, he’s figured out the strategy for the race and relentlessly follows it. He’ll be a popular play, even for Daytona standards.

I have been touting my liking of Blaney to win this race for most of two weeks now. I’m still on him following qualifying and the Duels. He’s finished P2 here twice in the last six 500s and finished P4 last year. Being in a Ford and driving for Team Penske gives him an advantage in these races as both of those perform well at plate tracks historically. Just because he’s my pick to win though shouldn’t mean that we go overboard with putting him into lineups as anyone can wreck out no matter how solid or not they are at these tracks.

His two-faced comment has been getting a lot of run over the last few weeks but that attitude is what’s needed, and helpful, at Daytona. It’s made him one of the more successful racers at Daytona. While the last three 500s haven’t been as fruitful for him, he did finish P6 or better five-straight races prior to that including a win as well as netting him the second-best average finish in this race among drivers with at least four run in the last nine.

A new team, a new Crew Chief, a new manufacturer, a new number, what hasn’t changed is his skill at these races. He’s posted two top-six finishes in the last four 500s and now he’s pretty close to a chalk play at Daytona. He’s starting P36 and as long as he avoids the wrecks, has the skill and speed to finish in the top-10 and most people will be expecting that from him.

While he is perhaps the most controversial driver on the track every week, his performance at plate tracks can’t be seen as controversial. They’re been very good. Oftentimes he’s been the lead Toyota throughout much of the races at plate tracks and he does have a win to his credit at Talladega. It hasn’t much mattered where he starts at these races either as he’s found his way to the front consistently. The only driver to post a better average finish than Wallace per the last six plate races has been Ryan Blaney.

We don’t typically think of Truex as being a plate racer that we want to play in DFS. That’s changing though. Over the last year, he was sixth in Driver Rating and seventh in average finish. While that’s not much to write home about it is an improvement for Truex and that’s what’s making him intriguing this weekend.

He won this race a year ago in his first crack at it in a Cup car. He’s looking strong again this weekend too. For those that might be off of him because he’s starting P6, he started P5 last year and hung out in the front long enough to make a run at it in the closing lap. He’s likely to use a similar strategy this year again and just like with Logano and Blaney, he’s in a Ford and Team Penske one at that which should give him an advantage in handling and pushing at the front of the pack.

Throughout his career, he seems to wax and wane in performance and right now he’s on an uptick. That includes at plate tracks. Over the last six such races, he ranks fourth in the field in average finish, and over the last four 500s, he ranks third in average finish. He is a trusted driver in the front of the pack at plate tracks as well which means he won’t be shuffled out late in favor of others which also helps his case for a strong finish.

He’s baaacckk! The seven-time Cup champion has become a part owner of Petty GMS now Legacy Motor Club and is racing a select schedule. That includes the Daytona 500. He’ll start P39 on Sunday. While he missed the last two Daytona 500s racing in Indy Car, his average finish in the prior seven attempts was 20.3. That sounds great but four of those were P16 or better and three were 34th or worse so a bit of a mixed bag. He’ll be popular because he’s Jimmie Johnson and he’s starting in the back but just be cautious with loading up on him.

Briscoe finished P3 in this race last year. That’s the good news. The bad news? He was all over the place in the rest of the time at plate races though with finishes from P3 to P37 and everything in between. He’s starting P30 on Sunday which should give him some nice PD upside but just because he’s starting that far back hasn’t always translated to moving up as he finished P31 after starting P26. The risk is inherent here but Briscoe is the boom or bust play that can make a difference.

Preece is back in the Cup series this year piloting the number-41 SHR Ford. In two of the last three Daytona 500s that he’s run he’s finished P8 or better with a mid-20s finish sandwiched in between. While there’s not a ton to go off of, what we’ve seen from him is enough to make him worth playing this week, especially rolling off P20 in the starting grid.

The Guns N’ Roses paint scheme is cool and all but how will he show on the track? He’s been hit and miss at plate tracks in the past but seems to be feeling the mojo this week heading into Daytona. Jones has posted three top-10s in the last five plate races overall and has the sixth-best average finish in that span as well. That’s enough to make him a differentiator this week for DFS in the 43-car.

McDowell has been a very good and consistent plate racer for a while now. That includes winning the 2021 Daytona 500. In his eight Daytona 500s, he’s finished P15 or better seven times with top-10s in four of the last five races. His four top-10s in that span put him tied for second-most only behind Hamlin and his 12.1 average finish is fourth among drivers with at least four 500s in the last nine. That is the consistency we’re looking for.

Let’s not shy away because he’s starting P4. He’s starting there because he has that good of a car, not only single-car speed but also in the Duel on Thursday. He’s been a good plate racer for a while now and has a win at these tracks under his belt too. While he’s not won the Daytona 500, he was tantalizingly close to doing so a few years ago when he was leading on the last lap on the backstretch. Almirola appears to have a very competitive number-10 SHR car under him for Sunday.

The Dinger is back full-time! It can’t come at a better track either. In the last five Daytona 500s he’s run, he’s second in average PD at 12.6 and has two top-10s in the last two appearances. The Kaulig Racing 16-car was very good at plate tracks all of last year, their first in the Cup series, so there’s not much to steer us away from not putting Allmendinger into lineups.

Lajoie is usually a favorite of mine when it comes to plate tracks. He ranks sixth in PD in the last six Daytona 500s and eighth in PD over the last six plate races overall. Lajoie is also 10th in Driver Rating in the last six plate races. He has these types of races circled on the calendar as his team’s best chances of winning to get into the playoffs so you know he’s going for it full send this weekend.

He’s always a guy I mark as being able to get more out of his equipment than he should be able to. In two of the last three Daytona 500s, he’s finished P11 or better. Dillon has previously been able to avoid the wrecks pretty well here and now, with his new teammate Corey Lajoie, he should have a skilled driver with him when trying to move up through the field.

It’s Cody Ware SZN as they say. It’s basically the only time of the year in which this is in effect. He’s been great on Superspeedway tracks in the last six races, ranking fifth in average PD in that span. In the last three Daytona 500s he’s run, he’s been very good too posting a 9.0 PD mark which ranks seventh in the field. Hard to pass that up for a guy this cheap.