NASCAR DFS Playbook Alsco Uniforms 250: Top DraftKings Picks

After a controversial inaugural weekend for the Chicago Street Course that saw Cole Custer claim his second win of the season, the NASCAR Xfinity Series heads back to Hampton, GA for the second race of the season at Atlanta Motor Speedway! There are ten races left in the regular season for the Xfinity Series with five spots left up for grabs. John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Hill, Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier, Chandler Smith, Sammy Smith, and Jeb Burton are the only drivers locked into the playoffs right now. But with Atlanta’s new configuration this is an opportunity for a driver from a less-funded team to win and get into the playoffs similar to Jeb Burton who won at Talladega earlier this year. This reconfiguration does provide more unpredictability as the drivers will race more in a pack and draft. So let’s dive into the NASCAR DFS top plays and strategies for Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 250!

Atlanta Motor Speedway is still a 1.5-mile tri-oval. However, with the repave that started about two years ago, the banking is higher and the track is slightly more narrow. We’ve now seen three races here and know the track races like Daytona and Talladega. But where they differ is that we’ve seen drivers have the ability to maintain the lead, especially if the field opts for single-file racing during long green flag runs. Fastest laps will be harder to project since they’re more spread out in this kind of race. For those playing PrizePicks, I would avoid fastest lap props entirely because clean air and running up front doesn’t necessarily translate to running the fastest lap. Austin Hill led 103 laps here in the Spring and had only four fastest laps. Jeb Burton didn’t lead a single lap in this race but had nine fastest laps.

Another area where this track resembles Daytona and Talladega is in chaos. Through three races we’ve seen 28 cautions in the Xfinity Series for 153 laps out of a possible 498 laps. 30% of the laps during the three Xfinity races here have been run under yellow. And because of all the unpredictable chaos, we need to remember, that we don't need to spend every dollar of our NASCAR DFS budget. It is perfectly fine to leave a couple thousand dollars on the table. And be on the lookout in the PrizePicks channel in Discord as I did post some pre-qualifying PrizePicks Driver Props that I like for each series.

Now because of these changes to the track, NASCAR will not have practice for the Xfinity or Cup Series. There’s no point in these teams running the risk of junking their cars in practice, especially if they’re going to just run in a draft. So we only have qualifying for the two races in Atlanta this weekend and this Playbook will have its usual updates/notes in RED once we know the starting order. Qualifying will be at 4:05pm ET on Saturday.

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Austin Hill ($10,700)

The guy just crushes it in this style of racing and it’s his home track. In the three races at “new” Atlanta, Hill has won two of them while finishing second in the other. He’s also won the last two Spring races at Daytona and there’s a fair chance he wins the pole and leads a bunch of laps early on until these drivers actually start racing with about 15 laps to go. Update: Both Hill and his teammate Sheldon Creed will be scored from P9 and P10 respectively but both have the same drivetrain issue and will start at the rear to fix the repair. Both drivers can navigate their way through the field but I wouldn't play them in Cash games this evening. Both are just Tournament plays.

Ty Gibbs ($10,400)

Gibbs won the lone Atlanta race since 2022 that Austin Hill didn’t win. He also had three finishes in the top 11 at Daytona and Talladega in 2022. I know I’m writing up the three most expensive drivers this week. But pricing isn’t really an issue this week as we’ll still find ways to leave money on the table, and overall it’s highly unlikely the top three all make it into the optimal lineup. The lone concern I have with Gibbs will be the lack of Toyota’s in the field. But with an abundance of Chevy’s it’s possible they coordinate with the Fords to take tires and fuel together. Anything can happen so I won’t use it as a reason to completely talk myself off Giibbs.

Justin Haley ($10,300)

Haley is a wizard on these types of tracks even if he may have lost a little bit of flare by moving up to the Cup Series. In the Cup Series, however, Haley did finish seventh and 11^th at Atlanta in 2022 and he does have that notable win on his resume from Daytona in the summer of 2019. In the Xfinity Series, he swept both Talladega races in 2020, he has a pair of wins at Daytona, and he was tenth in the first Xfinity Series race at Atlanta earlier this year. He’ll be in the 10-car for Kaulig Racing this weekend, which has three wins on the year and has a history of success in this style of racing. Update: Probably still fine for cash games despite starting P13.

Cole Custer ($9,600)

Custer is really the only driver in the $9K range that I like at the moment. That could all change after qualifying and I am optimistic Chandler Smith ($9,200) could find that Kaulig magic and run well here. Custer comes with plenty of experience running in a pack and was even top ten in the Cup race at Atlanta last June. So far, this year, Custer’s been on a role. He has ten straight top ten finishes and has scored two wins in the last four races, although the win last week is a bit controversial. However, he finished ninth at Daytona earlier this year, was 12^th at Atlanta in the Spring, and he finished fourth at Talladega.

Parker Kligerman ($8,800)

There are a couple road courses still on the schedule that Kligerman could win, but Atlanta is also a track that might be his key to getting into the playoffs. He’s currently 13^th in points and the top 12 drivers get in. Could he point his way in? Yes, but it’ll benefit him and improve his stock with Big Machine Racing if he could get to victory lane. He finished fourth at Atlanta back in March and was third at Talladega. He was even sixth at Talladega last Fall with Big Machine so there’s plenty of top five upside for him this weekend and he opened at +1800 to win on DraftKings Sportsbook which is pretty solid for a driver who ranks pretty high heading into qualifying. Update: Starts in the teens and has the ability to potentially win tonight.

Daniel Hemric ($8,300)

Hemric fits the bill as a driver that is all-or-nothing at this type of track. He doesn’t have any wins, but he has good finishes and wrecks. During the 2021 championship season with Joe Gibbs Racing, Hemric finished ninth and fifth at Daytona, while finishing 12^th and fourth at Talladega. The next year he signs with Kaulig Racing. He wins the pole at Daytona in his first race with the team, leads 38 laps, but finishes 28^th. He would then wreck at Atlanta-1 and Talladega. Then he finished fifth at Atlanta-2, wrecked at Daytona-2, and finished eighth at Talladega-2. Even this year he wrecked at Daytona and Talladega, but was the runner-up at Atlanta in the Spring. Like I said, he’s all or nothing. But that’s kind of what we’re looking for in Tournaments. He’s getting +1800 odds to win on DraftKings Sportsbook. Those odds are a little too short for my liking, but I do love the play from a DFS perspective in Tournaments/GPP’s.

Riley Herbst ($8,100)

As is the case every week with Herbst, he’s a Tournament-only play. In cash games he’s live if he starts outside the top 25 but I don’t think that’s likely this weekend. In the last three races at Atlanta he’s finished fifth, ninth, and fourth. He consistently ran in the top ten in the Spring race and overall, he’s a solid driver in the draft. He’s finished top ten in four of the last six races at Daytona and he finished 11^th and seventh at Talladega in 2022. In the Cup Series this year he finished tenth at Daytona and 20^th at Talladega. He’s not a lock to finish well because there is the chance he wrecks, but he should be on our radar for a good finish heading into qualifying.

Brett Moffitt ($7,800)

Moffitt has been trending in the right direction of late with four straight top 15 finishes on the year and 11 top 20 finishes in 16 races this year. He finished sixth at Atlanta this past Spring and was 12^th at Talladega where he led 20 laps. He was 14^th and 20^th at Atlanta in 2022 and was tenth at Talladega last year as well. He has plenty of experience and despite being on a smaller team, he has the ability to contend for a top ten, and possibly for a top five this weekend. Update: Very good play starting P27. Likely carries more ownership but has the eighth-best driver rating in drafting races in 2023.

Ryan Sieg ($7,700)

Sieg is always a tough driver to get a read on. For starters, he’s qualified in the top 15 in each of the last three races at Atlanta. But he’s also finished top 15 at those races as well, so he’s at least avoiding the chaos. He’s finished top ten in four of the last five Spring races at Daytona, and he has four top five finishes in the last six Talladega races. It would certainly help his cause if he could qualify in a spot where we could squeeze some PD points out of him, but he’s shown some consistency in finishing well at these tracks. Update: Not the greatest qualifying effort so we are getting PD here. That's good news.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,500)

Alfredo has cooled off from the decent start he had earlier in 2023 after he scored five top 20 finishes in the first six races. Over the last ten races he has just one top 20 finish. But this is a week where he has more upside since the playing field is more even and the smaller teams have more upside and can finish well. He led 18 laps here in the Spring and has finished 16^th, 14^th, and 14^th in the last three races here. He wrecked at Daytona in the Spring, but prior to that he had four straight finishes of 16^th or better including a pair of top tens at the world center of racing. Alfredo makes for a high upside Tournament play this weekend.

Parker Retzlaff ($7,300)

I’m still very skeptical of this play. But you have to imagine that Jordan Anderson Racing is pleased overall with what he’s done in his first full-time season with the team. He wrecked earlier in the year at the first Atlanta race, but he did finish fourth at Daytona and seventh at Talladega. Mind you, this is a driver that’s mostly a short track racer and he’s still very young. So a pair of top tens at Daytona and Talladega is actually very impressive given the lack of experience. I also like that he can consult Jeb Burton ($7,900), his teammate, for tips and strategies when running a race like this. Burton is a pretty good driver in the draft and managed to score his second career win at Talladega to lock himself into the playoffs. I do like Burton this week heading into qualifying, but I anticipate that he might qualify a bit high.

Jeremy Clements ($7,100)

Clements is a little priced up for Saturday night’s race, but pricing shouldn’t be a problem since we tend to leave money on the table for these races. Clements has eight straight finishes of 22^nd or better coming into Atlanta-2 but if there’s one style of race that can absolutely kill momentum, it’s a race like this. So far this year Clements finished 17^th at Daytona (started P38), 15^th at Atlanta-1 (started P23), and 19^th at Talladega (started P38). He even managed to win Daytona last Summer so that’s what we’re talking about when we say the smaller teams can score a win at these tracks. I don’t think he has as much win equity this weekend, but I think he can definitely get a top ten if he avoids the chaos. Update: Definitely a slight downgrade because he qualified. P8. Not cash game eligible but live for deep-field Tournaments. Kaz Grala is the pivot in this range.

Josh Bilicki ($6,400)

Bilicki only has one race at the new layout for Atlanta, but he did start P36 and finish 16^th in that race. He only has four races at Daytona under his belt but has finished 25^th or better in his last three. I do like that he’s running with DGM Racing this week and they’ll be entering three cars. They will have plenty of Chevy’s to pit and work with for Saturday night’s race.

Mason Massey ($5,500)

In an effort to get a little different and discuss a driver I don’t normally mention, let’s go with Mason Massey. He’s only run one race this year and it was Nashville so it doesn’t really compare to Atlanta. However, he ran the inaugural race at new Atlanta and started P26 and finished sixth. And last year he started P30 and finished 24^th. One result is obviously far better than the other, but even the result a year ago would’ve been good enough for 24 fantasy points on DraftKings. This 08-car for SS Green Light Racing has been pretty good on the comparable tracks this year. Gray Gaulding finished 20^th in this car at Daytona and Atlanta-1 while finishing top ten at Talladega. David Starr even managed to finish 22^nd in this car a year ago.

Joe Graf Jr. ($5,300)

Graf is one of my least favorite drivers to write about. For starters, I never seem to get him right. And on top of that, he’s just not a good driver. I know the RSS cars aren’t the class of the field but he’s finished 30^th or worse in this car in 13 races. However, he finished seventh at Daytona to kick off the year, then grabbed a top 25 finish at Atlanta-1, and a top 20 at Talladega. The another annoying thing about Graf is that if you look at his Driver Averages profile, and select “detail” on any of the Atlanta, Daytona, or Talladega races, you’ll find that he tends to finish around where he starts. That’s especially true for the three Atlanta races since the start of 2022. However, there still are some of those slate-breaking top ten finishes like we saw earlier this year at Daytona and like we’ve seen twice at Talladega. I can confidently say I wouldn’t play him in Cash games unless he starts dead last. He’s a GPP-only play because we’ve seen the upside he has, but we just haven’t seen it enough.

David Starr ($5,000)

As mentioned in the Mason Massey section, Starr started P28 and finished 22^nd in this race a year ago. That stands to be his lone race at Atlanta’s new configuration, but he comes with plenty of experience and a handful of top 20 finishes at Daytona and Talladega. No one is necessarily a lock when they’re priced this low, but these are the options I feel best about ahead of qualifying.

Garrett Smithley ($4,800)

A couple years ago Smithley was a key piece in a XFIN lineup I had that took down a nice GPP on DraftKings and basically funded my NFL DFS play the rest of the year. So I’m always a little partial to him. But even I know he’s not very good. He’s a far better driver on iRacing than in an actual car. Yet somehow, he seems to be a superspeedway wizard. In seven career races at Talladega he has an average starting spot of 31.6 with an average finish of 14.0 with four finishes in the top 12. The results at Daytona aren’t as good, but still solid. He has an average starting position of 28.6 and an average finish of 17.1 at the world center of racing. He’s only raced “new” Atlanta once and it was earlier this year where he wrecked. But I’m willing to let that slide because we know he can maybe ride around back and let others wreck out while he gains positions through attrition. 

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

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