NASCAR DFS Picks: YellaWood 500 Playbook, 10/6 - Talladega SuperSpeedway

NASCAR DFS rolls into the steep banking of Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday. The 2024 Yellawood 500 is Sunday, October 6 as the second race in the Round of 12 in the NASCAR playoffs. The famed Alabama speedway always provides equal parts excitement and chaos just like the MLB playoffs, and this Sunday will be no different. How do we prepare for that chaos for NASCAR DFS? What are the strategies we can use for building DraftKings and FanDuel lineups? What are the race trends for the Yellawood 500 at Talladega? All that plus top NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s NASCAR playoff race below.

Talladega SuperSpeedway Trends

Below is a table showing the trends and averages over the last 5 Talladega races. A lot of it is to be expected at a plate track. Double-digit PD drivers are numerous, fastest laps are split all over the place, and over 6-in-10 top-10 finishers are from P12 or worse. There are perhaps a tad more lead lap finishers than expected, but that’s mainly due to the big one not coming until late in the race and sometimes on the last lap. One trend that isn’t shown here is that winners have come from P12-P19 6 of the last 10 races and P10 or worse 8 times in that span.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring Trends

This is one of the more inverted scoring trend than we’re used to seeing. That’s to be expected here. One thing that is clear though is that simply stacking the back doesn’t pay off. The last 8 optimal lineups here have had a top-10 starter, a few in the teens, and the rest from 22nd on back. Playing drivers starting up front doesn’t often pay off here. 

NASCAR FanDuel Scoring Trends

Much like the DraftKings scoring, FanDuel has a similar shape to it. The jumps in the graph are more muted thanks to the laps completed points, but the same general idea appears. Starting only drivers in the back isn’t the ideal way to build a lineup. Laps led matter even less on FanDuel so we’re really not targeting those at all.

YellaWood 500 DFS - Practice & Qualifying Results

Due to the nature of the Talladega races, there was practice this weekend. Therefore there isn’t a practice-to-qualifying table this week.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2024 YellaWood 500

With everything we’ve talked about and shown above, how are we building lineups for NASCAR DFS? The main thing we are hunting for is finish position combined with position differential. Dominator points are practically non-existent and certainly are non-important this week. We can quite frankly avoid most of the top-5 in general. If you’re doing a bunch of lineups, we can get some exposure to them spread out throughout the builds. It is however more nuanced than just stack-the-back. As mentioned above, the optimal lineup trends here show that a top-10 starter, a few in the teens, and the rest from P22 on back is the best way to give yourself a shot at a GPP takedown.

Top YellaWood 500 DFS Picks

Below are the best plays of the week both written up and in the player pool at the bottom. However, you can in fact get some exposure to everyone in the field as literally anything can happen in a race at Talladega.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Ryan Blaney

Blaney has been great here with 2 wins in his career. One of those was in the last 5 races here, to go along with 2 runners-up. This year at plate races, he’s either been in the top-5 or bust. So there is a some risk here, but hey; it’s a plate race and there’s inherent risk with everyone. Blaney’s last great showing was Atlanta a few races ago. If that same speed shows up here, he could be adding a third Talladega win.

Chase Elliott

Elliott has one of the best records here, with a win and an 8.6 average finish (2nd best in the field). While the average finish hasn’t been the best this year, at 17.6, he’s still pulled off 4 top-15s. We’ll take the track history and solid finishes for Elliott for sure as the Hendrick speed is always some of the best in the field at plate tracks.

William Byron

Byron has not only the 3rd best average finish at Talladega in the last 5 races but also 3rd best mark in the 5 races this year. While he’s at the top of the NASCAR playoff standings currently, it’s always a good idea to push for wins this time of year. Speaking of which he won the Daytona 500 in February; expect that type of showing if not win again this weekend.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Kyle Busch

Would it surprise you to know that Busch has the best average finish on plate races this year among drivers with at least 2 races? Yep. He’s averaging a 10.0 finish and is one of only 3 drivers with 4 or more top-15 finishes and one of 5 with 3 top-10s. Let’s not forget he nearly won at Daytona to get into the playoffs as well.

Bubba Wallace

Wallace is always a guy to consider at plate tracks even if his recent runs haven’t been as good as previous. He’s won at Talladega in the past and always seems to be a guy who leads laps and runs in the top-10 consistently. If he can keep it clean and utilize his new-dad mojo, we’re looking at another good showing from an accomplished plate racer.

Ross Chastain

Chastain isn’t in the playoffs but is coming off a win at Kansas last week. He also has a win previously at Talladega to go with 3 P13 or better finishes. This year at plate tracks he’s also been consistent and good. Four of the 5 races have seen Chastain finish P13 or better including a P7. He’s not usually thought of as a plate racer but his showings speak differently and when we add that to momentum, Chastain is looking solid again this week.

Christopher Bell

There’s not a lot of talk about Bell this week for some reason, perhaps recency bias. Bell finished P38 here in the earlier in the year but the rest of the plate races have gonna quite well. Bell has 3 P4 or better finishes this year and if he can bring that mojo to Talladega, he can get his best finish here and strengthen his playoff standing at a pivotal point.

Alex Bowman

Bowman is a guy who’s not only been been good at plate races this year but also in recent races at Talladega. He’s posted the 2nd best average finish this year on plate tracks at 11.0 and has the 5th best average finish at Talladega in the last 5 races here. The strength of his résumé is his finishing positions but not a ton of position differential. So we’ll likely need another solid finish from Bowman to hit value.

Chase Briscoe

Briscoe is fighting for his playoff life at this point. The good news is he’s coming to a track that’s been good for him. How good? How about 4 straight P14 or better finishes including a P4 and P10. Briscoe has also posted 3 P14 or better finishes at plate tracks this year as well. The mid-tier is going to make or break lineups this week and Briscoe could be a big part of making them.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Todd Gilliland

Gilliland may get overlooked this week because this year at plat races hasn’t been great to say the least. Four finishes in the 20s or worse and just 1 in the top-10. Guess what though? That top-10 finish was at Talladega earlier this year. When we look at his history at ‘Dega itself, Gilliland has 4 straight P13 or better finishes. Sometimes a driver just feels better at certain plate tracks compared to others, and Talladega appears to be that spot for Gilliland.

Carson Hocevar

We’re gonna get wonky for a second but hear me out. Since the Daytona 500, Hocevar has 4 finishes between P19 and P11 in plate races. The starting spots of those races were all P32 or worse. Hocevar has given us a ton of PD potential and 4-straight solid finishes as well. It’s hard to find that kind of consistency normally in this range, and that makes Hocevar standout this week.

Harrison Burton

Burton won the final regular season race at Daytona to make the playoffs. It wasn’t just the win though, Burton has 3 P11 or better finishes this year. The other 2 aren’t great but that cane the case at plate tracks. If he’s toward the front late though, he knows how to handle it and should be in line for another good finish.

Daniel Hemric

Getting what seems like wonky for a second time. However, and this is a big however, Hemric has done something no one else has this year at these tracks. He’s the only driver in the field with 5 top-20 finishes out of 5 plate races this year. That includes a P9 here in the Spring. Hemric has also posted a 12.2 average PD mark in those 5 races which is 4th best in the field among drivers with at least 3 of those races run. Pretty good for a guy no one thinks about huh?

Corey Lajoie

Lajoie has a history of over-performing at Superspeedway races. All of his career top-5 finishes have come at these tracks. That includes this year’s Daytona 500 and this race a year ago. While he has switched cars as of 2 races ago, that doesn’t much matter here but we can also take confidence in the 51-car finished P12 here earlier this year.

Zane Smith

Getting a bit wonky again here. Smith while not great at Talladega, has been reasonable across the 5 plate races this year. Smith has 2 top-15 finishes in that span with one coming from starting P14 and the other from P30. If Smith can harness the better runs from Daytona and bring them to ‘Dega, We’ll see some value here.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

Player Pool

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