NASCAR DFS Picks: Xfinity 500 Playbook, 11/3 - Martinsville Speedway

The penultimate NASCAR race of the 2024 Cup Series season is Sunday with the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville. It’s one last chance to clinch a spot in the Championship Four mixed with the tight, pressure-inducing confines of Martinsville is a joy to watch. What are we looking at for NASCAR DFS strategy on Sunday? Who are the top driver plays for DraftKings and FanDuel? What are the similar races and tracks to Martinsville that we can use when building lineups? What are the race trends at Martinsville recently? All of that plus the best plays for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday below!

Martinsville Speedway Trends

The Paperclip as Martinsville is known, is a prototypical short track in most respects. It’s short, the shortest on the schedule, and it’s flat, one of the flattest on the schedule too. It’s tough to pass, or at least we think it is, and we think of the laps led coming from the front of the pack. Some of that is true while some of that isn’t. The trends here over the last 5 Next Gen races tell a bit of a mixed tale. Four of the 5 recent winners here have started outside of the top-10 in the grid with just one starting P5. That being said, when we expand out to the last 12 races here, 7 winners have started from inside the top-10. Interestingly, the last time the pole-sitter or outside pole-sitter has won at Martinsville was 2013 with a sweep.

When we’re looking at some other trends and metrics, laps led and top-10 finishers don’t really fit short tracks either with just 60% of laps led coming from the top-10 starters and 40% of top-10 finishers starting P13 or worse. Another trend that shows moving up is the nearly 6 drivers a race that have posted double-digit PD numbers. However, like other short tracks, there are less than half the drivers on average who finish on the lead lap per race. There are also typically co-dominators at Martinsville races with a tertiary dominator as well.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average points scored by starting spot on DraftKings. These charts are designed to show the strategy in play on average at Martinsville. Keep in mind it doesn’t take into account who, which car, nor why they were starting where they were. These aren’t hard and fast rules, but simply averages.

NASCAR FanDuel Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average points scored by starting spot on FanDuel. These charts are designed to show the strategy in play on average at Martinsville. Keep in mind it doesn’t take into account who, which car, nor why they were starting where they were. These aren’t hard and fast rules, but simply averages.

Xfinity 500 DFS - Practice & Qualifying Results

The table below shows where each driver qualified and where they rank in their practice speeds. It’s designed to show the differences in who qualified too low or too high compared to their short- and long-run at practice, which in this case was a single 45-minute session with every driver on the track. It can be useful to see who may move up and who may fall back from their starting spots.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2024 Xfinity 500

So with all of the trends and scoring data above, what is the strategy for building NASCAR DFS lineups for Sunday? Like most short tracks, we’re focusing on laps led first and nailing down a couple of dominators in that department. With 500 laps in the race, there are plenty of dominator points available. The next thing we’re focused on is the drivers who can finish in the top-10. That’s not as easy as it sounds. Sure, there are 4-out-of-10 drivers on average who finish there outside of the top-12 but that doesn’t mean they’ve all started P20 or closer either. We’ve seen drivers start as far back as P31 finish in the top-10 in the last 5 races at Martinsville. Long-run practice speed will carry the day during the race as there are a ton of long green flag runs during the race thanks to long stages and not a ton of cautions. In the Next Gen era there have been 5.2 cautions a race including 2 stage cautions, meaning only 3 incident cautions a race. This is also a style a track where past success at flatter tracks shows through well like New Hampshire, Gateway, and previous Martinsville races. We don’t really want to look at Bristol or Richmond or even Phoenix for comps as they all don’t fit in banking or distance or shape of track. Lastly, we don’t want to start too many drivers starting outside the top-25 in the same lineup due to the risk of being lapped quickly and then being stuck at least 1 lap down if not more which caps their PD upside.

Top Xfinity 500 DFS Picks

Below are the top driver plays for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville. The drivers who are written up are the ones we’re most confident in but the ones included in the driver pool below are also playable in either style of build. We are always available in Discord to answer lineup or driver choice questions.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Kyle Larson

Larson has been a smooth operator at Martinsville in the last 4 races with a finish no worse than P6 including a win and 2 runners-up. His 6.0 average finish is 3rd best in the field in the Next Gen era and that comes with best average running position and driver rating. However, he’s not been that dominant as he ranks 5th in laps led and 6th in the fastest laps in that span. The speed is legit in the 5-car once more this week based on practice and there’s a tad of PD based on the starting spot, but we’ll need dominator points from him at this price to pull out value and that’s where the risk comes in.

Denny Hamlin

What a disastrous day on Saturday. After putting up some of the best practice speeds in the 45-minute session, he wrecked into the wall. His team debated going to a backup car but instead, they are intent on fixing the primary. Either way he didn’t run a qualifying lap and will start dead last on Sunday. He also didn’t get a pit selection and will be stuck with likely the worst pit stall on pit road. That will make his mission to move onto the Championship Four pretty challenging. For DFS he’ll be a popular pick for all formats but if he doesn’t move up quickly, it could be a long day for Hamlin.

Ryan Blaney

It’s been nothing but consistently great showings from Blaney at Martinsville in the Next Gen era. He won this race a year ago and has no finish worse than P7 in that 5 race span. Blaney’s 4.0 average finish has come with a 13.4 average start and he’s rolling off P14 on Sunday, with speed that got better the longer he ran. He needs a win to make the Championship 4 at Phoenix and his history suggests he should be a big threat to make that happen.

William Byron

It’s been a bit hit-and-miss for Byron at Martinsville of late. Sure, he’s won twice in the last 5 races but only has 3 top-10s total. The starting spot is great at P3 but the speed wasn’t quite up to par as he seemed to be getting slower the longer he was on the track. If the starting spot holds and gives him time to find the race speed then it could be a great day for Willy B but if the speed has him going backward early, it could make for a frustrating day for him and those who played him in DFS.

Christopher Bell

Bell’s bona fides speak for themselves. He won here two years ago in the Fall race from the 20th starting spot and leading 150 laps. Bell won the New Hampshire race this Summer and has dominated at that track in Cup and Xfinity races. Now he comes into this weekend with elite practice speed once more and PD on his side with a P16 starting spot and the capability of winning from here. Get ready for a cheaper, popular, win-equity play in the top tier.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Martin Truex Jr.

The narrative going into this weekend’s race was could Truex bring it one more time at a track he’s been good at in the past. So far the answer is yes given the top-of-the-chart practice speed he’s shown. On top of that he’ll also be on the pole for Sunday. Now, above we talked about ho w the pole-sitter has struggled to win here, but it will give him a shot at a ton of early laps led, i.e. Ryan Preece two years ago. There is clearly risk here with negative PD and tending to fall back and perhaps move out of the way late if the playoffs standings call for it. So play him only in GPPs and he’s not a must-play either.

Chase Briscoe

There are only 3 drivers in the field with 5 straight top-10 finishes at Martinsville and Briscoe is one of them. That might be surprising but he’s got the driving style for it with getting his elbows out and don’t forget the Fords also do well in this track format. In addition to the success at Martinsville, he’s posted 4 top-10s in the last 5 similar races. He’s starting P4 on Sunday and has so-so speed based on practice, but in the mid-tier if he gets another top-10 he’s worth the price on either site.

Ross Chastain

Chastain was in the playbook before practice and qualifying based on previous runs here and similar tracks. HIs average finish in the last 5 races at Martinsville is 10.2 with an average start of 19.0 and his similar race history is close to that at a 12.0 average finish in 11 races. Chastain will start P22 on Sunday with practice speeds to match. So that’s a risk but given the history of starting in this area of the field and averaging the finishes he has, Chastain is worth the risk as he’s clearly adept at moving up without great speed.

Bubba Wallace

It’s been 4 straight P11 or better finishes for Wallace at The Paperclip. That’s led to him being one of only 6 drivers in the field with an average finish under 10.0 in the Next Gen era. While the last 2 similar races haven’t been great for Wallace with P34 and P21 finishes respectively, however, prior to that he had 7 top-20 finishes in 9 races an a 12.8 average finish. Once more he has good speed that flashed top-10 at practice in long runs before qualifying several spots behind that in 19th. That should give him solid PD upside at a track he gets overlooked on typically.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece

Preece is known as a short-track racer and that showed through with a P9 here in the Spring race and a P11 at New Hampshire. Both of those came with moving up well from his starting spots. Preece is still, rumored, to be looking for a new ride for 2025 and a strong run to finish off the season will go a long way for him to secure that car. Looking at the similar he's done a good job of holding his spots when starting high as well, like when he was on the pole here 2 years ago and led 135 laps to start the race.

Carson Hocevar

Hocevar has really been showing staying power down the stretch. That continued on Saturday with his practice speeds that were top-six in multiple metrics. The qualifying speed wasn’t totally there which gives us some nice PD upside and will make him reasonably popular as a budget play. He did start P25 in the Spring here and finished P17 while moving up from P20 to P8 at New Hampshire. His driving style has really showed up at the flatter tracks and that should be the case once more on Sunday.

Michael McDowell

McDowell has been solid but not excellent at tracks like this in the last few years. At this price point we don’t need anything spectacular. In the last 11 similar races he’s posted an average finish of 19.6 and 21.3 in the last 5 Martinsville races. That’s about what he showed he’s capable of in practice on Saturday with an average practice rank of 17th. If he finishes about where he starts, that’s enough to make him worth playing.

Erik Jones

Earlier this year Jones had a P12 finish at Martinsville and nabbed a P11 at New Hampshire. Even though his time at Legacy hasn’t been as consistent as most would like, Jones has been pretty consistent across the similar tracks to Martinsville. In 11 similar races since 2022, Jones has 8 top-20 finishes and 5 top-15s. To go with those finishes comes a solid PD mark in that span too moving from 25.4 to 17.3 on average.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

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