NASCAR DFS Picks: Straight Talk Wireless 400 Playbook, 3/23 – Homestead-Miami Speedway
Published: Mar 23, 2025
If we’re going to see Christopher Bell’s winning streak get snapped, it might as well be for a driver getting their first career Cup Series win. After underwhelming practice speeds plagued many of the Fords, Josh Berry went out with a great strategy in the final stage and avoided cautions to capture his first career Cup Series win, and the 101st win for Wood Brothers Racing.
We go from a moderate tire wear track in Vegas to a high tire wear track in South Florida. Homestead-Miami Speedway is well known for its tire wear and it’ll come into play in a big way on Sunday. But it’s arguably the best track in terms of quality racing so let’s dig in and build our winning NASCAR DFS lineups for the Straight Talk Wireless 400.
Homestead-Miami Speedway plays host this weekend and we’ve had all three NASCAR series in action. Homestead is a 1.5-mile track, but it features arguably the most tire wear of all tracks. It’s personally my favorite track on the schedule because of the tire strategy, but that’s not all.
Homestead also provides for multiple grooves and lanes to run. So we will see drivers like Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick run their preferred lines along the wall so they have more momentum coming out of the turns. The turn radius isn’t as challenging as Darlington Raceway, but the tire wear will come into play at Homestead much more than we saw at Vegas.
We’re also being treated to a Spring race at Homestead. In my opinion, this track should get two races every year and I think the drivers would agree with that. It’s been featured in the Round of Eight in the playoffs the last few years. But this will be the first time since 2021 where we see this track early in the schedule.
Homestead-Miami Speedway Trends
As you can see this race offers a nice balance of comers and goers. Each of the last two races at Homestead have seen SEVEN drivers gain double-digit spots in terms of positive PD. Half the top 10 finishers are typically starting outside the top 10. That should be the case once again this week because there are a few drivers that qualified very well that I don’t think hold their spot in the top 10.
In three straight races at Homestead, we’ve seen 200+ laps led by drivers starting inside the top 10. The obvious contenders to continue that trend will be William Byron and Ryan Blaney. But we also can’t sleep on the polesitter, Alex Bowman. He qualified on the pole after being average in practice. And last week’s winner, Josh Berry, starts right next to him on the front row followed by Noah Gragson, who had some great runs here in the Xfinity Series.
NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends
This is one of the few races where I just have a hard time really buying into these starting spot charts. If we refer back to the last section, we have seen a lot of big movers over the last few Homestead races. So I can’t say that I’m too surprised to see scoring averages elevated across the board. That DraftKings starting spot for P5 is especially interesting considering that’s where William Byron starts. He’s a previous Homestead winner and based on the numbers below, he may just have a top five car in the longer run.
NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Straight Talk Wireless 400
Once again for a 400-mile intermediate race we’re looking at two dominators and trying to find some PD options with the rest of our lineups. We also have some big names starting P20 or deeper. Those names include Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Daniel Suarez, etc. It’s important to really try to spread exposures around and trust your own convictions. This track is unforgiving if you don’t manage your tires well and we should expect plenty of drivers to scrub the wall if they’re running the higher lines.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 DFS Picks
Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000
Kyle Larson is the most expensive option on both sites this weekend and he’s been very busy having run the Truck Series race on Friday followed by the Xfinity Series race on Saturday. When you think of Homestead, you definitely think of Kyle Larson despite the fact he’s only won here once in 11 races.
But still, this is a track that rewards those drivers brave enough to run the high line along the wall. And Larson is also one of the best at tire management, as evidenced by the 263 laps he led at Darlington last fall.
In four of his last eight races at Homestead he’s managed to lead 95+ laps and there’s plenty of win equity with this play. Overall, he’s one of the best plays on the board and will likely carry significant ownership because of his ability to run up front at this track.
Larson only qualified P14 for the race but he had arguably the best speed in Group B’s practice session, which should surprise absolutely no one.
Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500
Tyler Reddick is a lot like Kyle Larson in terms of outlook for this race. Both are aggressive drivers that will surely run the higher line along the wall. Reddick won the pole for this race in the fall, had a 135.3 driver rating, and led 97 total laps on his way to a win. And we can’t forget the thrilling pass he made on Ryan Blaney in the final two turns to actually win the race and punch his ticket to the Championship race last year.
Reddick’s always been great at this track. In five career races here, he’s finished fourth or better in all but one. The outlier being a race where he wrecked in his final year with RCR.
Reddick’s coming off a decent showing last week. The car had speed at Vegas and he led 34 laps but finished outside the top 20. But the higher tire wear tracks are where he shines. Last spring at Darlington he led 174 laps from the pole. Even in the very first NextGen race at Auto Club (RIP) he led 90 laps after starting P11. It’s a track that definitely caters to his strengths and he should be able to get another top four finish if he stays clean.
Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000
The qualifying results for this race didn’t do many favors to the elite drivers. However, Ryan Blaney looks to have a top five car that can run well in the long run. He also qualified P6 so he already has a leg up on drivers like Larson, Reddick, and Christopher Bell.
Blaney came so close to winning this race in the fall but he was passed on the final lap by Tyler Reddick who used the win to punch his ticket to Phoenix. It marked the second straight year that Blaney was the runner-up at Homestead.
But he’s also led 47 and 53 laps in each of the last two races at this track and in both races, he posted a 120+ driver rating. Josh Berry just won at Vegas last week in a Penske affiliated car. After two straight disappointing races at Phoenix and Vegas, this is a great opportunity for the 2023 Cup Series champion to bounce back and emerge as a dominator.
Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $11,000
According to Ryan with iFantasyRace, Hamlin was great last year at high tire wear intermediates. In three races he had a 4.7 average finish, he was tied for the second-best total speed ranking, and was the only driver to finish top 10 in all three races.
Hamlin is a three-time winner at Homestead with the last victory coming in the summer of 2020. But in each of the last two races at this track, he’s 20+ laps but wrecked in this race in 2023 while finishing third in 2024.
A lot of the talk and hype with Joe Gibbs Racing still surrounds Christopher Bell, who is a previous winner here. But with Bell still garnering attention I think it’s at least worth mentioning another JGR driver who can win this race. It also helps Hamlin that he looked great in the long run during Group A’s practice session and he starts outside the top 20.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers
Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $7,000
The mid-range is quite fascinating this week and it’s the price range where I really struggled to finalize the Playbook. Bubba rolls off P9 and there are a lot of options starting behind him.
I really like Chase Elliott as well and he starts P18 and might be better in the longer runs than Bubba. Wallace had the fastest 10-and-15 lap averages in practice while he was second in 20-lap average. But he didn’t post a longer run than 20 laps. So I’m somewhat concerned by that unknown factor.
But in the mid-range we also have plays like Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain, who looked terrible in practice. It wouldn’t surprise me if either driver went to the rear Sunday morning for unapproved adjustments. So you can either play those two or try and identify a dominator in this tier.
And that’s why I like Wallace. The speed was there in practice and the qualifying effort gives him some PD with a shot at laps led. As always, Bubba is a risky play. He needs so many things to go his way in a race. The slightest hiccup on track or on pit road throws him into a tailspin and he usually fails to recover. There is still upside with the equipment because we know how good Tyler Reddick is here so I like mixing Bubba into 15-20% of lineups as a dark horse for dominator points.
Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,000
The next two plays in the Playbook will attract some ownership because they qualified poorly but had top 15 speed in the longer runs in practice. This may not be Keselowski’s favorite track because he has an average finish of 14.6 at Homestead with an average starting spot inside the top 10. But for this race he’ll start very deep in the field.
He did practice in Group B and overall he was top 20 in 15-and-20 lap averages but he was top 10 in the longer metrics. He’s also an experienced veteran who can manage his tires. A week ago he started P27 and finished 11th at Vegas. He also won at Darlington last season. Not much else needs to be said as the starting spot alone would’ve drawn eyes from even casual DFS players.
Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $6,800
Suarez might be a trendy play because he finished as the runner-up last week at Vegas. It sucks to see him not get the win, but it was also still cool to see Josh Berry get his first. But Suarez also maintains a chip on his shoulder as a driver no one expects to contend most weeks.
Since joining Trackhouse Racing, Suarez has raced at Homestead four times. In those four races he’s finished as high as 10th and as low as 18th. That’s not terrible when we consider he’s typically been qualifying outside the top 20.
High tire wear tracks can be difficult for Suarez who did wreck in both Darlington races in 2023. But I tend to qualify Las Vegas as a moderate-to-high tire wear track and he just finished second there last week. Similar to Keselowski, the starting spot will make him a trendy option since both Keselowski and Suarez looked decent in the long run.
Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,500
Hocevar made the Playbook last week for Vegas and I have zero regrets. He finished two laps down in 30th but that doesn’t do his performance justice. His car was fast and he was having an outstanding run last week. With 77 laps to go, he was running sixth and pit with everyone else under caution for tires. He made a strategy move to only take two so he could gain extra track position and fight for the lead. As he was exiting his pit box, he had contact with Ty Gibbs and from there he ended up losing track position and the car wasn’t the same. Normally Hocevar is shooting himself in the foot and pissing off the field. It was an unfortunate event but he could’ve had a top five finish at the ripe price tag of $7,000 on both sites last week.
So what’s the approach for Homestead? Well, I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt because I imagine the car will have speed again on Sunday. In this race last fall, Hocevar had a 96.9 driver rating and a top 10 finish. And it wasn’t even like he lucked into that result. He finished the first two stages in the top 10 as well. Hocevar also has a win at Homestead (2023) on his resume during his time in the Craftsman Truck Series. Hocevar qualified P15 but looks to have had top eight speed in the longer runs during practice.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers
Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $6,200
I never feel great about Ryan Preece for plenty of reasons. And we’re also probably paying too much for a guy like Preece, but he’s landed in the optimal lineup each of the last two weeks.
As you can see above, the practice speed was nothing amazing. But I’m trying to take comfort in that fact that his teammates, Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski, look like they have good long run speed. And Preece’s team has been nailing strategic calls during the races over the last two weeks.
In his two races at Homestead with Stewart-Haas Racing, he finished 10th and 13th. In each of those races he gained 15+ spots of position differential. He’s coming off a top three finish last week at Vegas and while I doubt he has another top five finish in him, he’s returning 5X value if he finishes 19th. But if he can grab a top 15 finish then he’s hitting 6X value and might be flirting with optimal lineup status yet again.
Austin Dillon – DraftKings: $6,300 | FanDuel: $5,000
As fate would have it, we’re looking at three consecutive appearances in the NASCAR DFS Playbook for Austin Dillon. Dillon was a bust last week so shame on me for expecting him to deliver back-to-back weeks after he had a good showing at Phoenix.
Alas, we turn the page once again and Homestead is strangely one of his best tracks. He’s raced here 11 times in his career and he has a pair of finishes of exactly 25th. Those represent his worst performances. In eight of the other nine races at this track, he finished 12th or better.
The one holdup with this play, and for a lot of Dillon’s upside, is that he’s been qualifying rather well this year. But the good news is that he rolls off P30 for this race which might juice his ownership a bit, so we’ll need to be mindful of our own exposures.
Erik Jones – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $4,200
I don’t think I trust the long run speed for Jones this weekend. And I don’t think he’s pleased either. The shorter metrics indicate that this car is probably a top 18 ride. But over the longer metrics it could be a fringe top 20 car.
In this race in the fall he started P28 and finished 22nd. Unfortunately, that could be a similar result for this race. But I do like giving Jones the benefit of the doubt on a high tire wear track. Jones does have two career wins at Darlington, and one of those came in the NextGen era.
He’s qualified top five each of the last two weeks but we do get some PD out of him for this race. A top 20 would be enough for 5X value. But if we want him to hit the optimal lineup in tournaments, he might need to finish in the top 15.
Riley Herbst – DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $3,200
This feels like we’re playing with fire a little bit. Herbst has finished top 20 in all five races so far this year except for Phoenix where he was caught up in that big wreck early on. That one didn’t hurt us too much as he was starting P18. Last week at Vegas, as a very affordable DFS play, Herbst started P34 and finished 19th. Those PD points became very valuable.
Herbst should always have a top 20 car just given the speed we know we can expect from 23XI Racing. We’re very high on Tyler Reddick to potentially win this race, and we mentioned Bubba as well. Herbst doesn’t carry much win equity but I wouldn’t be surprised if he grabbed another top 20 finish and maybe a top 15 result.
Herbst hasn’t raced at Homestead in the Cup Series but he did race here six times in the Xfinity Series. He never finished worse than 11th but he was also the runner-up in 2023. The P19 qualifying effort does give me some pause because he could very well finish in the same spot. With that said, if he moves up a few spots he can pay off the price tag.
It is worth mentioning that of all the “punt” options in this very low tier on DraftKings, Herbst starts inside the top 20 while Todd Gilliland, Cole Custer, Ty Dillon, Cody Ware, and JJ Yeley start further back. If you opt to pivot to either of those options that’s fine. My preference would be Gilliland or Custer since they have top 20 upside and offer more position differential.
NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week
Player Pool
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High |  Kyle Larson  $14,000 |
| Tyler Reddick $13,500 | |
| Christopher Bell $13,000 | |
| William Byron $12,500 | |
| Ryan Blaney $12,000 | |
| Chase Elliott $11,500 | |
| Denny Hamlin $11,000 | |
| Medium | Ross Chastain $10,000 |
| Kyle Busch $9,500 | |
| Brad Keselowski $8,000 | |
| Carson Hocevar $7,500 | |
| Bubba Wallace $7,000 | |
| Low | Daniel Suárez $6,800 |
| Ryan Preece $6,200 | |
| Michael McDowell $5,500 | |
| Austin Dillon $5,000 | |
| Justin Haley $4,500 | |
| Erik Jones $4,200 | |
| Todd Gilliland $3,500 | |
| Riley Herbst $3,200 |