NASCAR DFS Picks: Pennzoil 400 Playbook, 3/16 – Las Vegas Motor Speedway

We called it last week, even if Christopher Bell didn’t have the wins at Atlanta and COTA, he’d still be the favorite heading into Sunday’s race at Phoenix. Sure enough, he won with a very dominant car and has now gone to victory lane three straight races. Can he make it four straight this weekend? He certainly can as he’s finished as the runner-up in two of the last three races at Las Vegas. This week’s track certainly brings the Hendrick Motorsports drivers into play so it’s a tougher challenge for Bell to make it four straight.

Last week at Phoenix saw NASCAR introduce the option tire compound and it actually made the race exciting and interesting. The softer compound helped drivers gain significant track position and the fastest laps were spread out more among the field. Ryan Preece started P28 and was mostly a position differential play. However, Preece threw on the option tire early in stage one and was flying through the field. Overall, he only finished 15^th but the 27.4 dominator points on DraftKings helped push him into the optimal lineup. If NASCAR’s solution to improving the short track package is to integrate the option tire at additional tracks, then I’m all for it. Sunday’s race was probably one of the better short track races we’ve seen in the NextGen era.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Trends

Las Vegas Motor Speedway plays host this weekend and we’ve had all three NASCAR series in action. Vegas is what many people consider a “cookie cutter” intermediate track. It’s 1.5 miles in length with 20 degrees of banking in the turns and nine degrees in the front-and-back stretches.

I mention this with each passing year at Vegas and it carries more weight with each race. Tire wear has been moderate for the longest time. But naturally with each passing year, the track gets older. It was last repaved about 18 years ago and has hosted plenty of racing in that time. This track is in the desert so the climate itself can gradually wear the surface out. So this really is a good test ahead of next week’s race in Homestead for how these drivers will fare with the intermediate aero package with tire wear.

A lot of the talk this weekend is going to be about Christopher Bell and the run he’s been on. I even shared this tweet in Discord to highlight how dominant Bell was last fall at Vegas in the playoffs.

However, Goodyear Racing did tweet out this little nugget early Saturday afternoon with regard to the tire combination for Sunday’s race. So it is worth remembering how dominant Kyle Larson was in this race a year ago in addition to the speed that Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, and others showcased in 2024.

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

So let’s add a little context as to why P2 is averaging about 15 more fantasy points than the pole sitter on DraftKings. In the last five races at Vegas, we’ve seen Kyle Larson win twice from P2 and in both those races he scored over 100 fantasy points on DraftKings. Similarly, in this race two years ago, William Byron won from P2 with 116.55 fantasy points on DraftKings. In that same race, Joey Logano (the pole sitter) wrecked out and returned -27.3 fantasy points. Hopefully that helps explain why P1 doesn’t score as well compared to P2.

As you can see from the trends and scoring tables, most of the win equity comes from inside the top 10. Alex Bowman did win this race three years ago starting P13 but that race isn’t included in this sample size. But over the last two years as teams have grown accustomed to the NextGen car, we’ve seen the leaders and winners emerge from the top 10. Three of the last four winners have started P2.

All four races at Vegas in 2023 and 2024 saw one driver lead over 100 laps. We’ll likely see a few other drivers pick up 20+ laps led as well. Nailing that driver that leads 100+ laps and finishes well will be crucial to lineup construction for our Pennzoil 400 NASCAR DFS picks.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Pennzoil 400

The two races in 2022 saw a total of just one driver from the top 10 hit the optimal lineup on DraftKings. That was Joey Logano who started P5 in the fall race and he ended up winning. There were a few additional drivers that hit their respective optimal lineups starting P11-P13 but for the most part, the 2022 season was a bit more chaotic and I don’t weigh it as heavily as the last two seasons.

In 2023 and 2024, there were at least two drivers that started inside the top 10 in each of the four races that landed in the optimal lineup. In three of the last four races here, there have been three drivers that started inside the top 10 that landed in the optimal lineup. For that reason, I do want to focus most of my builds on two dominators for this race. I won’t shy away from playing three drivers starting in the top 10 since we’ve seen it work in previous optimal lineups and it could serve as a good way to make our lineups unique. From there we’ll be looking at drivers starting a little further back that can provide position differential, but we also don’t need to be loading up on drivers starting super deep in the field. Over the last four races at Vegas only four total drivers have hit the optimal lineup starting P30 or deeper.

Top Pennzoil 400 DFS Picks

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500

Bell may only have an average finish of 14.3 at Vegas in the NextGen era but he’s won the last three races entering this weekend and he’s led 15.4% of the NextGen era laps at Las Vegas, including 155 in last fall’s race where he finished second to Joey Logano.

Bell’s also been solid at Kansas Speedway, which is considered the sister track of Las Vegas. Bell has won the last three poles at Kansas and led 122 laps there last fall.

We don’t typically hold Bell in high regard at intermediates, but he clearly is great, and I don’t want to say he absolutely won’t win his fourth straight race. He did win at Charlotte last summer and was fourth at Homestead last fall which features heavy tire wear. This will be a tough test for him but we’re witnessing a phenomenal breakout and we have to keep in mind the recent form.

Update: Bell will drop to the rear of the field for an unapproved adjustment (throttle change) and he'll be scored from P13. He still has win equity and the ability to lead laps but if he gets to the front for this race, it likely won't be until Stage Three.

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

It really doesn’t matter where Kyle Larson starts for Vegas. He was going to make the Playbook regardless. There’s such a high ceiling with this play that we’re going to put him in because of the massive dominator potential.

In 17 career races at Vegas, Larson has finished first or second in seven of them. Specifically in the six NextGen races at Vegas, he’s won twice and finished second on two occasions as well.

He won this very race a year ago with 181 laps led, and in the fall of 2023, he won that race as well with 133 laps led. Kansas Speedway is a great comparison for Vegas and Larson won there last spring. It’s pretty clear we’re getting heavy win juice with this play and he can certainly go out and post 100+ fantasy points on DraftKings as he’s done in two of the last three races here.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

Reddick starts P14 after showcasing top five speed in the longer metrics in practice. Reddick finished second in this race a year ago and had speed in the fall race, but he wrecked out of that one.

In the NextGen era, Reddick has four finishes in the top eight in six races. He’s also a previous winner at Kansas in the NextGen car as well. All three 23XI cars are making the article this week. If Reddick’s long run speed is any indicator, he’s a dark horse to take over this race late in the game.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

Byron has the second-best average finish (6.7) at Vegas in the NextGen era. He won this race two years ago with 176 laps led and he finished fourth here last fall.

Byron also led 49 laps at Charlotte last year and finished third and in the playoffs he finished second at Kansas with 24 laps led. He’s also a previous winner at Darlington (prior to the NextGen era) and has always done well on intermediates.

He’s been rather quiet since his Daytona 500 win to kick off the season, but he did lead over 80 laps last week from the pole which hopefully gives him some momentum heading into this weekend. He was top three in several speed metrics in practice so we can feel good utilizing him as a pivot off Bell and Larson.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $11,000

We have to include Blaney simply because of the starting spot. He didn’t post a qualifying lap so he starts dead last. Midway through Group A’s practice session, Blaney got loose and scrubbed the wall. The team had to replace the back bumper and rear diffuser.

Here’s the bad news. Team Penske looked awful in practice. I’m aware of where Joey Logano and Austin Cindric qualified their cars. However, their long run speed in practice indicates they may very well go backward. But there’s always the possibility they made adjustments for qualifying trim.

Alas, Blaney offers plenty of positive PD. By comparison, his teammates offer plenty of negative PD. In Group A, Blaney was fourth in 15-lap average around the time he scrubbed the wall. Blaney can return close to 50 fantasy points if he simply finishes in the top 15.

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $9,500

Ross is always tough to gauge. But he’s finished top 12 in three straight races. We also know he’s good to win a race or two each year. Ross was one of the few drivers who got off to a very hot start in 2022, the first year of the NextGen car. He finished second and third in the first two Vegas races with this car and led a combined 151 laps between both contests.

2023 and 2024 were a bit more quiet. He’s finished top 12 in all four races with a pair of top five finishes as well, but he’s only led two laps over those four races.

We can take comfort in the fact that he did win at Kansas in the playoffs last year. In fact, between both Kansas races last year he led 95 total laps which bodes well for such a comparable track like Vegas. I also find a little more comfort targeting Chevys when we’re at intermediates so Ross is just ticking all kinds of boxes for me ahead of Vegas.

Now he was insanely fast in practice as he crushed it in plenty of the metrics as you can see from the practice notes above. This could very well be one of those weekends we see the 1-car go to victory lane which happens once or twice a year, but he did put up a stinker of a qualifying effort.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,200

Bubba ran Group A’s practice session on Saturday. He was incredibly fast from the very beginning. The car warmed to the track as Bubba flashed top three speed in five-and-ten-lap averages. He fell to sixth in the 15-lap average and that was that. We didn’t see the longer run.

At the end of the day, Bubba starts P20 and he’s finished 13^th or better in three of the last four races at Vegas. We also know he’s particularly good at Kansas Speedway. He’s a good tournament play but he always comes with risk so I can’t quite recommend him for cash games.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

Hocevar stands out as a driver who should be able to move up. The Spire Motorsports cars were great in practice, but they were in Group A when the track was cooler and the cars were expected to run faster laps. For that reason, I think the qualifying speeds are a bit skewed.

But I do still like that Hocevar is a confident, aggressive driver in this field. He makes more enemies than friends, but I like when aggressive drivers start deeper in the field. Hocevar starts P25 after he qualified in the top five the last two weeks.

Hocevar managed a top 15 finish in this race a year ago. For this slate, you’re hoping for a similar finish but I don’t want to rule out the possibility of a top 10 result either.

Noah Gragson – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $6,000

It’s hard to gauge what we’ll get with Gragson this weekend. He grabbed a top 10 at COTA two weeks ago with a good strategy. Last week, his car was slow in practice and he finished nine laps down in 26^th.

But we try to wipe the slate clean for a new track type. This is also Gragson’s home track and he had some great runs here in the Xfinity Series. In eight XFIN races at Vegas, his worst finish was sixth and he led 139 total laps between a pair of races in 2022.

Obviously, the Cup Series is far different. Gragson’s actually run four Cup Series races at Vegas with three different teams. He finished 11^th in 2022 with Hendrick Motorsports when Alex Bowman was out with a concussion. In 2023, with Legacy Motor Club, he finished 30^th and was then fired later in the year. Then last year with Stewart-Haas Racing, he finished sixth in the spring (I remember that being a very profitable slate for us), and he finished 18^th in the fall.

Front Row Motorsports hasn’t been particularly good at Vegas in the NextGen era so we are kind of throwing a dart with this recommendation. Todd Gilliland doesn’t have a top 20 finish here. Michael McDowell did have a pair of top 20 finishes at Vegas in the NextGen era, but no top 15 finishes. So we are taking a risk but we’re hoping to strike gold like we did a year ago. Gragson will start P21 on Sunday and he showcased top 15 speed in practice.

Austin Dillon – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $6,800

I don’t really love the idea of going to Austin Dillon two weeks in a row. But it worked out in our favor last week. The only downside is that, among the value plays, Zane Smith crushed value with his top 10 finish, and Ryan Preece hit 10X value on the back of 27.4 dominator points.

Dillon still had a solid day has he started P21 and finished 12^th. But he had zero dominator points because he didn’t get off-cycle with the option tire like Preece did. Alas, a good day overall for the driver of the 3-car.

Vegas has actually been a very good track for Austin Dillon. He was wrecked by Daniel Hemric in this race last fall. But aside from that, it’s clear he has potential to finish well. Per Ryan with iFantasyRace, Dillon has an average finish of 15.3 since 2021 if we exclude the wreck last fall. In this very race a year ago, he started P19 and finished 16^th.

He definitely had more upside prior to the NextGen era but I’m optimistic RCR is more competitive this year than what we saw in 2024, when the organization basically put Keith Rodden in charge of anything related to the competition of their cars. He qualified P22 and didn’t really run many laps so ownership should be low as a tournament play.

John Hunter Nemechek – DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $4,800

I don’t want to get too excited over this play because I’ve whiffed on my JHN exposures this season aside from COTA. But he’s looked good on the track and even if you include his Daytona Duel race, he’s gained 10+ spots of position differential in all five races this year.

Now context is key because we haven’t raced at your basic 1.5-mile intermediate track yet. But overall, these tracks typically have less variance. And over the last two weeks, JHN has qualified outside the top 30 and still moved up.

There’s plenty of upside here but a low floor. It’s entirely possible that Legacy Motor Club has finally found their footing and are no longer the wet blankets of the Toyota cars. Last fall, JHN started P26 and grabbed a top 10 finish. A year ago in this race, he started P27 and finished 22^nd. That’s not great but again, we’re talking about a value play so a score like that didn’t kill your lineup. Even at Kansas last spring, he started P29 and finished 13^th.

I do hope we see more out of JHN this weekend because I was nervous about playing him last week when we didn’t see him practice on a longer run like most of the other drivers in the field. But he’s $5,500 and we should be spreading our exposure with a few different drivers in this range. JHN wasn’t great in practice but Erik Jones showed top 10 speed so hopefully they shared their notes with the 42-car.

Riley Herbst – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $3,000

After three straight finishes of exactly 17^th to start the 2025 campaign, Herbst was caught in that “big one” last week at Phoenix and finished 37^th. That’s a bit of a bummer, but he still returned 34+ fantasy points in the first three races of the season and now he’s the fourth-cheapest driver on DraftKings heading into Vegas.

And wouldn’t you know it, Herbst is another driver in this field who hails from Las Vegas. Vegas was always a good track for him in the Xfinity Series. He only scored three wins at that level, but the first was at Vegas in the fall of 2023 where he led 103 laps. Over his final four races at Vegas in the lower series, he didn’t finish worse than eighth.

Obviously, the Cup Series and the NextGen car are a different beast. However, he does drive for 23XI Racing. In both Vegas races last year, Tyler Reddick had the second-best green flag speed with 23XI. Even Bubba Wallace, who loves the most comparable track to Vegas, had consistent top 15 speed at Vegas last fall and finished 12^th.

Even if we get speed closer to Bubba Wallace than Tyler Reddick, we’re getting potentially a top 20 car. Now we have to adjust our expectations a little bit as Herbst still gets more familiarity with the NextGen car, but among this value tier it’s very easy to see he has some of the best equipment. He qualified poorly and wasn’t great in practice but I don’t mind using him as a punt option.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

• DraftKings
• FanDuel

$ Tier	D
High	Kyle Larson $14,000
	Christopher Bell $13,500
	Tyler Reddick $13,000
	William Byron $12,500
	Denny Hamlin $12,000
Medium	Ryan Blaney $11,000
	Chase Elliott $10,000
	Ross Chastain $9,500
	Chase Briscoe $8,500
	Bubba Wallace $8,200
Low	Brad Keselowski $7,800
	Daniel Suárez $7,500
	Ty Gibbs $7,200
	Carson Hocevar $7,000
	Austin Dillon $6,200
	Noah Gragson $6,000
	AJ Allmendinger $5,800
	John H. Nemechek $4,800
	Riley Herbst $3,000