NASCAR DFS Picks: Jack Link’s 500 Playbook, 4/27 – Talladega Superspeedway
Published: Apr 27, 2025
The NASCAR Cup Series is back following the annual week off for Easter and they’re going right back into the fire with high-speed drafting at Talladega Superspeedway. The racing in person is as exciting as it can be. The margin for error is razor thin and we’re sure to see some carnage and big wrecks on Sunday. This type of race is very difficult to predict/project for daily fantasy sports contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. But we’ll do our best to navigate the qualifying results, find some leverage, and leave some salary on the table when finalizing our winning NASCAR DFS lineups for the Jack Link’s 500!
Talladega Superspeedway is the biggest oval on the NASCAR schedule. Sure, the Daytona 500 is the biggest race of the year. It’s NASCAR’s Super Bowl and Daytona is very similar to Talladega. However, in terms of track size, Dega beats Daytona.
Talladega comes in at 2.66 miles in length with 33 degrees of banking in the turns. At Daytona, it gets kind of dicey if the field tries to go three-wide. However, at Dega, the track is wide enough where it’s possible so it does make the draft a bit more exciting.
Talladega and Daytona always level the playing field a bit. The best of the best tend to win here. However, when it comes to drafting tracks, we occasionally see those random or surprise victories and it’s great to take some stabs at some long shot bets. If that’s more your cup of tea then I highly recommend you read Ed Raus’s NASCAR Best Bets for Sunday’s action!
Talladega Superspeedway Trends
Attached are the race trends for the last five Talladega races. As you can see from the attached table, the last five races are averaging 11 drivers gaining double-digit spots of position differential each race. To go along with that, no driver has led 50+ laps in that sample size and only six total drivers, across five races, have led 20+ laps.
The starting spot for the winner is rather telling as well. For most of the lower variance tracks, we see a majority of the win equity come from inside the top eight. But at Talladega, while it’s dangerous to start in the middle of the field, the winner has typically been moving up and starting deeper compared to other races.
If there are cautions, which we are expecting, then we should see some of these trends continue to stick. That’ll help those drivers in the back move up (more on that shortly). Later in the race, we’ll probably see laps led come from drivers starting from outside the top 10.
As we can see from the tables above, the highest scores for DFS are coming from drivers starting deeper in the field. Survival is the name of the game. You have to get to lap 185 to be in contention. Due to the scoring, FanDuel is a bit more forgiving if drivers closer to the front wreck out. But on DraftKings, it’s incredibly risky to start drivers in the top 10.
For lineup construction, you can certainly roster one. There’s a theory that superspeedway lineup construction can boil down to something like one driver from the top 12, followed by two more drivers starting in the top 20, and then the rest of the build is targeting PD plays starting further back. If there are wrecks, the drivers playing it safe in the back have a fair shot at avoiding the carnage.
And to that point, don’t hesitate to leave salary on the table. For superspeedway races, it’s so easy to make unique lineups that aren’t duplicated because there are so many ways to leave salary on the table.
NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Jack Link’s 500
We did not have practice for this race. As has been the trend the last handful of years, NASCAR does not practice for Daytona, Talladega, or Atlanta. So there’s no practice-to-qualifying table this week simply because they only had qualifying to ensure nobody wrecked in practice.
Targeting laps led is a bit risky here. The dominator points tend to be spread out at these tracks. Fastest laps tend to go to drivers further back and not to the leader. And we may only see two drivers at most eclipse 10 fastest laps.
For cash games, “stacking the back” will be a popular trend. Sure, you’ll be playing very chalky drivers but it’s a safe method for building out your NASCAR DFS cash game lineups and you’ll leave a ton of salary on the table.
For tournaments, it’s okay to play chalk but you do need a couple drivers in your build that may start further back but carry less ownership. So the driver pool below is going to highlight my favorite Cash and GPP plays. But for those drivers that are obviously going to be chalky, I will also provide some pivots starting next to or near that driver, even if there’s a drastic pricing difference.
And lastly, I say this for almost every drafting race, but no driver is truly off the table. I’ll submit a driver pool at the bottom of the article for this race. But a large aspect of this race is luck and I can never truly say a specific driver is unplayable. There are certainly drivers we go lighter on, but even drivers up front have the luxury of track position early on.
Jack Link’s 500 DFS Picks
Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $14,000
Blaney is the most expensive driver on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He starts P9 which is perfectly fine. We definitely are approaching him in DFS as if he’ll win and maybe lead 30+ laps. Remember, the dominator points are hard to predict for this race. But Blaney has win equity as the +750 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook following qualifying.
Blaney is a great drafter. And it also helps that Team Penske and the rest of the Fords are phenomenal in the draft. 2024 wasn’t great for Blaney at Talladega as he finished 20th in this race a year ago and then wrecked last fall. However, in the NextGen era he’s finished second here twice and logged a win as well. Overall, he has three wins at this track.
There’s plenty to like about this play but you aren’t playing him in cash games. This is strictly a driver to play that tends to get to the front at this track and has plenty of win juice compared to the field.
William Byron – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $11,000
This is a great price for Byron on FanDuel but there are no real salary restrictions for these races. Blaney is currently the favorite to win this race, but at the same time Byron is +1200 and has the best average finish (7.7) at Talladega in the NextGen era.
Byron has won the last two Daytona 500’s so we know he’s good in the draft. Moreover, in the last four races at Talladega he hasn’t finished worse than seventh. He starts P16 and likely exceeds 5X value with a top five finish and a handful of fastest laps. But given the success at Daytona, it’s possible the win juice can carry over and he could get his second win of the season on Sunday.
Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,500
It has not been a good start to the season for Brad Keselowski. But at the end of the day, I can never write him off when we’re at a race like this. Keselowski has won here six times in his career. He also came very close to adding to that total last year when he finished second in both races at Talladega.
He does feel like mostly an all-or-nothing play. He can be optimal with a top five finish or he wrecks and kills your lineup. He starts P22 for this race which is exactly where he started a year ago when he finished as the runner-up. I am hesitant to play him in cash games, but I can’t shut that idea down completely. He’s +1400 to win and has position differential on his side. And as always, he’s in a Ford and they dominate in the draft.
Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,500
Here’s a fairly easy lock for cash games but maybe a driver we match the field in terms of exposure for tournaments. Chase Elliott is a solid driver in the draft. But what’ll draw ownership is the starting spot of P30. That gives him a safe floor, but he has win equity at +1500 to win this race.
Byron has the best average finish at Talladega in the NextGen era, but Elliott is second at 11.8 and he won here in the fall of 2022. He’s managed to lead laps at Talladega in five straight races, but we don’t even need him to lead laps in this race. He probably gets a few fastest laps and has plenty of PD on his side where he finds the optimal lineup with a top 12 finish.
But if you need a pivot you can probably go with Ross Chastain, who is a previous winner at Talladega, and he starts right behind Elliott. Chastain likely garners some ownership as well at his price tag, so keep on reading for some cheaper options starting in this range.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers
Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $13,000
This is an aggressive price tag on FanDuel for Cindric, where he’s the third-most expensive driver behind his teammates, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. But I’m enamored with the pricing on DraftKings. It just feels like Cindric winds up at the front somehow, right? He was phenomenal at Daytona and Atlanta to start the year. He led 59 laps in the Daytona 500 and finished eighth. Then he led 47 laps at Atlanta but wrecked. In both races he started P2.
I think there’s a fair chance he leads laps here as well. He started on the front row for both Talladega races last year but finished 23rd and 32nd. But again, in the last three races at this track, he’s led 15+ laps in each and he did finish in the top five here in the fall of 2023.
It would not surprise me one bit if he got to the front and led a long single file run at some point. He’s on the best team when it comes to drafting and there are plenty of Fords in the field for him to work with. This is strictly a GPP only recommendation.
Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $8,200
These are great price tags for Tyler Reddick on DraftKings and FanDuel. The downside with Reddick is that I struggle to get him right. But he starts P26 for this race and wouldn’t you know it? He won this race a year ago!
It was a surprise to many because we don’t hold him in high regard as a superspeedway specialist. But he does drive for Denny Hamlin, and Bubba Wallace is his teammate. Perhaps he’s picked up some tips along the way because he also finished second at this year’s Daytona 500.
A pivot I’m going to briefly mention is Kyle Larson who is more expensive on both sites. Larson starts right next to Reddick and we normally avoid Larson at superspeedways for a couple reasons. For starters, he usually qualifies much better and that almost immediately takes him out of our pool. But for this race he starts P25. The reason I didn’t write him up in depth is because he’s not the greatest drafter. As much as I want the resume to lower his ownership, I don’t think it lowers it enough for me to get excited about him because he carries plenty of name recognition. But it’s one of the better starting spots for DFS that we’ve seen from Larson.
Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,000
It’s Talladega so we have to acknowledge Bubba. He’s a great drafter and won here in 2021 even if it was a race shortened by rain.
Bubba is another one of those drivers who just finds his way to the front and leads laps at superspeedways. He’s led laps in four-of-six NextGen races at Talladega but only has one top 10 finish which is somewhat puzzling. At Daytona he’s led laps in six-of-seven NextGen races with a couple top five finishes.
Bubba actually feels a bit underpriced for this race. It feels like he should probably be $1,000 more on both sites especially since he’s +1600 to win while more expensive drivers like Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson at +1500. Alas, the discount is nice and he starts P20 so he’s a strong PD target.
Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,900 | FanDuel: $7,800
Bowman, like his teammates William Byron and Chase Elliott, carries a top five average finish at Talladega in the NextGen era. Sure, an average finish of 14.2 isn’t worth writing home about at most tracks but for a superspeedway it’s good enough to put you in the top five.
Bowman snagged a top five in this race a year ago and also finished sixth in this year’s Daytona 500 after starting P38. He is a pretty solid drafter and is one of those guys who carries a strong average running position at these tracks but he’s not completely safe from carnage since he starts P18.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $6,800
We can be short and sweet with this one if we so wish. He’s obviously a driver we elevate when NASCAR goes to superspeedways. Stenhouse has won here twice in his career, most recently last fall after he started P32. For this race on Sunday, he’ll roll off P38 so he’s obviously a lock for cash games and he’ll be wildly popular in tournaments just given how good he is in this type of race.
Here’s a fun stat regarding Stenhouse: in four straight races at Talladega, he’s gained at least 13 spots of PD. Obviously the win last fall stands out where he gained over 30 spots. But even in this race a year ago he started P32 and finished fourth. You can’t enter him into every lineup on Sunday but he’s going to be very popular in all formats because of the floor and the ceiling.
Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $5,800
Hocevar is perfectly fine but there are certainly some pivots we can consider. But last fall at Dega, Hocevar started P37 and finished 14th. Last spring, he started P35 and finished 17th. So obviously he’s shown he can move up. Can he crack the top 10? Maybe. He did finish as the runner-up at Atlanta but that’s his lone top 10 finish of the year.
Daytona has also been a rather unlucky race for Hocevar. But I do like the fact that he’s an aggressive driver and isn’t afraid to make a move to improve his position. Now in a race such as this, he needs to toe that line effectively because an aggressive move could easily result in a big wreck. But we can lean into this starting spot for our NASCAR DFS lineups for the Jack Link’s 500.
If Hocevar doesn’t suit you, I also like Noah Gragson who starts in Hocevar’s general area. Gragson is in a Ford for this race and Front Row is an organization that has had plenty of success at tracks like Daytona and Talladega.
Erik Jones – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $5,000
Legacy Motor Club had a great start to the season at Daytona and Atlanta. John Hunter Nemechek had the better finishes and DFS performances so he’s certainly in play for this race. But I’m liking the safety net of this starting spot for his teammate, Erik Jones.
Jones has frequently been mentioned in previous superspeedway NASCAR DFS Playbooks by myself and Matt Selz. Jones possesses the fourth-best average finish (14.0) at Talladega in the NextGen era. In fact, in four of the six NextGen races at Dega, Jones has finished sixth or better. In the other two races? He wrecked in one and then started and finished 26th in another. The upside is great for Jones as he rarely qualifies this poorly at a superspeedway.
Riley Herbst – DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $4,500
Herbst is risky but he’s a very good driver in the draft. That bodes well for this value play because we’ve already previewed his teammates, Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace. The equipment is fine and the greater risk we take with drivers this cheap is that the equipment may not hold up until the end. But with Herbst, we feel good about the 23XI ride.
Herbst raced in both Cup Series races at Talladega in 2023. In the spring race he started P36 and finished 20th with Rick Ware Racing. In the fall with Front Row Motorsports, he started P6 and finished ninth. We do need more of a ceiling performance from him though. He started P24 and finished 17th in this year’s Daytona 500 but if he can link up with Wallace and Reddick in stage one, they can drive through the field together and he might be optimal with a top 10 finish.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High |  Ryan Blaney  $14,000 |
| Austin Cindric $13,000 | |
| Brad Keselowski $12,500 | |
| Chase Elliott $11,500 | |
| William Byron $11,000 | |
| Denny Hamlin $10,500 | |
| Kyle Larson $10,000 | |
| Medium | Chase Briscoe $9,500 |
| Bubba Wallace $9,000 | |
| Christopher Bell $8,500 | |
| Tyler Reddick $8,200 | |
| Alex Bowman $7,800 | |
| Ross Chastain $7,500 | |
| Low | Ricky Stenhouse $6,800 |
| Daniel Suárez $6,200 | |
| Carson Hocevar $5,800 | |
| Noah Gragson $5,500 | |
| AJ Allmendinger $4,800 | |
| Riley Herbst $4,500 | |
| John H. Nemechek $3,800 |