NASCAR DFS Picks: Hollywood Casino 400 Playbook, 9/29 - Kansas Speedway

The Round of 12 in the NASCAR playoffs starts with a second trip to Kansas Speedway. The Hollywood Casino 400 is Sunday afternoon and is setting up to be another great race. The last time the Cup series raced at Kansas in May, the finish was the closest in the history of NASCAR. How are we building lineups for DFS? Are there different strategies for FanDuel and DraftKings to use? Who are the top drivers to play at Kansas this week? We’re back to an intermediate race this week and it’s the most calm race of this round. Will that have an effect how the race unfolds? Let’s dig in.

Kansas Speedway Trends

Kansas is generally considered one of the best tracks on the NASCAR schedule, and for good reason. It always manages to put on a great race with plenty of movement through the field. Those trends are seeable in the table below.

Over the last 5 races at Kansas, we’ve seen an average of 6 drivers a race move up at least 10 spots while 11 move up at least 6 spots. In that same span, we’ve only seen 2 total drivers top 100 laps led in a race and none in the last 3 races. Along that front, winners have come from the top-10 mostly for a while, however, in the Next Gen era all of them have come from P4-P8 starting spots.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring Trends

The following graph shows the average points by starting spot over the last 5 Kansas races. It’s designed to show the average strategy in play at Kansas regardless of driver and where they started.

NASCAR FanDuel Scoring Trends

The following graph shows the average points by starting spot over the last 5 Kansas races. It’s designed to show the average strategy in play at Kansas regardless of driver and where they started.

Hollywood Casino 400 DFS - Practice & Qualifying Results

Practice and qualifying took place on Saturday afternoon at Kansas and these are the results. They are sorted based on starting lineup and show the speeds for each driver over short- and long-run metrics. It’s designed to show the drivers who may move up or hold their spots in the race based solely on practice speeds. Use these only as one factor in playing a driver.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2024 Hollywood Casino 400

So with all of that in mind, how are we building lineups for the race? Out top NASCAR picks are going to be drivers who can deliver laps led and position differential. Like the rest of the intermediate tracks on the schedule, we’re going with a mix of top-10 starters and drivers starting all the way to the back of the field. We don’t really have to worry much about drivers getting lapped here if it’s a pretty clean race. We also want to look at building Hollywood Casino 400 DFS lineups with multiple laps led dominators given the propensity for them to be quite split up at Kansas. We’re almost guaranteed not to see a domination like we saw last week at Bristol. Do be careful though about how many drivers you expect to move up into the top-10 from outside the top-10 since only 30% of the top-10 finishers on average come from P12 or worse.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Denny Hamlin

The only driver in the Next Gen era to have all top-5 finishes to his credit. In addition to that he’s won and led a bunch of laps in that span as well. Hamlin is feeling like this is his best shot to lock into the Round of 8 and the speed in the 11-car is likely good enough to do it. Starting P8 has been good for previous winners in the Next Gen era as well. We’ll take the savings over Larson with some more upside too.

Tyler Reddick

Reddick won this race a year ago, but outside of that it’s been a bit of a rough go in the Next Gen race here. Outside of Kansas though, Reddick has been an absolute force at similar tracks. In the last 11 such races, Reddick has posted 8 top-10s and 6 of those top-5s including 2 wins. See what I mean? Some may layoff of him because of the iffy Kansas history but he’s typically a threat here and just needs to keep things clean otherwise have a shot to win.

Chase Elliott

Elliott is like the free square on a bingo card this week. Everyone knows it too. He’s starting dead last thanks to an engine issue in practice and will have a new engine for the race. The practice speed, with a healthy engine, was top-10 so he should be moving up pretty quickly,. We’ve seen drivers starting near the back of the field be a threat here before and the same is likely true for Elliott on Sunday. If you’re building for cash, Elliott is a near-must play but in GPPs, we can try and get under the field in case he doesn’t move up as expected.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

William Byron

Byron is a dark horse dominator on Sunday. Looking at track history and the similar races is a bit sketchy. However, the speed has generally been there for Byron and the luck hasn’t. Starting P6 on Sunday with top-4 speed at practice should let him be on the front foot from the drop of the green flag. Also, no one starting in front of him is a clear dominator early in the race. There is risk here that he doesn’t deliver value without dominating and dropping back a few spots. However, the speed indicates it shouldn’t be a huge risk.

Alex Bowman

Bowman has been one of my favorite plays for Kansas since the week turned to Monday. I only liked him more when the pricing came out and he was mid-tier priced on both sites. Why? I’m not sure. Bowman then went out and posted some of the best practice speeds on Saturday before giving us some PD with his qualifying run. Bowman is starting to look like he has the speed that led to 5 top-8 finishes in 6 races prior to the All-Star race. This is a big chance for Bowman to nab a bunch of points early in the Round of 12 at a track he’s been great at.

Brad Keselowski

While some may be looking the way of his teammate who finished runner-up here in May. Keselwoksi is the better play this week. Not only was his practice speed better than Buescher, and there’s a tad more PD here, not. to mention the track history is better. Keselowksi has finished P9 and P11 in the last 2 races here, and in general, has better success in the Next Gen era intermediate races. While either RFK driver has a plausible case to be played, Keselowski has more in his favor at a slightly cheaper price.

Daniel Suarez

Kansas hasn’t been the best track for Suarez in his career. However, he does have a couple top-15s in his Next Gen runs and has 3 P11 or better finishes in the 5 similar races run this year. That along with top notch practice speed and a P10 starting spot make him an intriguing play this week. Don’t expect dominator points from him but if he can hang in the top-10 and moves up a couple of spots, there’s value here.

Noah Gragson

Gragson has been rounding into form of late, both here and at similar tracks. In the 5 similar races run this year, Gragson has 3 top-12s including 2 top-10s. In May here he nabbed a P9. The speed in the 10-car at practice appears good enough to flirt with a top-12 once more if it’s a relatively caution-free race. The longer the 10-car was on the track the faster it got compared to the field.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Carson Hocevar

Hocevar is starting P14 and that may scare some folks off who are looking for PD in this range. I’m looking for PD but also finish position and value and that’s where Hocevar comes in. The speed in the 77-car was great at practice across multiple metrics and he has a history of holding his spot well when starting in this range. While I don’t expect a top-10 finish for him he does have 2 in the last 4 similar races. There’s little reason to believe that Hocevar can’t at least hold his spot and thus bring solid value.

Ryan Preece

In the 12 similar races to Kansas Preece has run, he’s averaging more than 8 spots of PD a race. That includes 4 top-20s and 3 top-15s. While the practice speed wasn’t off the chart, it was still better than where he qualified and coupled with his history of moving up well at similar tracks, Preece could be a budget PD play that works out pretty decently.

Daniel Hemric

The news came out Saturday morning that Hemric has last his ride for the 2025 season and so now it’s time to have a good run. The good news is two-fold for him this week though. Firstly, he has a car that is quite a bit faster than where he qualified in P30; secondly, in his 6 similar races in a Cup car, he’s posted 5 P23 or better finishes including 3 top-20s. There is room here for some cheap PD at a track that allows for that.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

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