The NASCAR Cup Series heads to one of its more historic tracks in Darlington Raceway. Darlington carries a few nicknames like The Lady in Black, but you can also call it The Egg given the shape and layout. It’s the “Track Too Tough To Tame” for a reason. The high tire wear and the opportunity to get aggressive and run along the wall will allow plenty of drivers to collect their Darlington Stripe. Sunday is shaping up to be an exciting race with some great throwback paint schemes (looking at you, Austin Cindric)! Let’s take a look at the top Goodyear 400 DFS plays for our NASCAR contests on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Darlington Raceway is one of NASCAR’s oldest tracks and similar to Homestead, it tends to deliver great racing. The NextGen car performs well on intermediate tracks and this race will incorporate tire management in addition to rewarding those who run along the wall.

The track features a unique “egg” shape with different turn radii at both ends of the track. But all in all, it’s a track where you can move up and pass. But also we’ll see some drivers get on their own pit cycle and take some risks on fresher tires. That will spread the fastest laps out across the field.

Overall, we’re taking the usual approach with an intermediate track. We’re looking at multiple dominators and finding the right drivers that can score well and hopefully pay off their price tag with 6X value.

 

 

 

Darlington Raceway Trends

Perhaps the most telling trends for the last five races at Darlington are the laps led and where they come from. Nearly 90% of the laps led in the last five races here have come from drivers starting inside the top 10. In four of the last five races here, there’s been a driver that started inside the top five, led over 100 laps, and yet they finished outside the top 20. That’s the nature of Darlington. Kyle Larson did at least lead 263 laps here last year and finished fourth in the same race to buck the trend.

But we also see plenty of comers and goers at Darlington. From the table above we see that in the last five races there have been at least 10 drivers to gain 6+ spots of position differential. And there are at least six drivers in each of those races to gain 10+ spots of PD. So if you can nail the dominators (and hope they finish well), there are likely to be plenty of drivers that move up for Sunday’s race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

Probably the most underwhelming starting spot charts we’ve ever posted, right? The P4 starting spot sticks out like a sore thumb because of what Kyle Larson did in the last race at Darlington. But we also mentioned how there have been big dominators that finished poorly in four of the last five races here.

The polesitter has even had some bad luck as well. Sure, I’m going to preview William Byron below. But we can at least consider this warning. Bubba Wallace started on the pole last summer at Darlington and had 11.5 dominator points. But he also finished 16th so the negative PD negated his dominator points. A year ago, Tyler Reddick started on the pole but finished 32nd. Luckily the dominator points he collected still gave him a final score of 55.25 points on DraftKings. In the summer of 2023, Christopher Bell started on the pole but finished 23rd. In this race two years ago, Martin Truex Jr. was on the pole but finished 31st. So the pole, while normally fortunate, has been somewhat cursed by the Lady in Black.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Darlington 400

I did mention this in Discord, but I’ll add a note here as well, but I have a hard time really buying into the practice-to-qualifying table. It’s normally a fantastic tool. But Group A technically didn’t get a long run because of a caution that was brought on by John Hunter Nemechek. And while NASCAR continues to run out two groups in qualifying, it’s hard to gauge this week. Group A probably would’ve had the faster collective times. But again, we didn’t see the longer run for most of those cars. So I do reference the practice speeds below but I do try to emphasize what group these drivers were in as well.

 

Goodyear 400 DFS Picks

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

On paper this track is definitely up Larson’s alley. This is a high tire wear track. He’s great on the intermediates. And you also have an edge if you can effectively run the wall well here. Now in three of the six NextGen races at Darlington he’s finished 20th or worse in half of them. Does that scare me off this play? Not one bit.

This is NASCAR DFS and it’s a high-variance game so we know what we’re getting into. Larson just has such a high ceiling at tracks like Homestead and Darlington because he can manage his tires better than most and he’s not afraid to run along the wall. He’s raced here 14 times in the Cup Series. In half those races he’s finished fourth or better and he won here in September 2023. In four of his last 11 races at this track he’s led over 100 laps. In nine of his last 12 races here, he’s led at least 25 laps.

Now he does start P19 for Sunday’s race but that gives him the first stage to move up and gain track position to potentially lead later on. He’s an easy driver to plug into your NASCAR DFS lineups for the Goodyear 400.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $13,500

A couple weeks ago we highlighted both Larson and Reddick to kick off the Homestead Playbook. So why not do the same for Darlington? In three of the six NextGen races at The Lady in Black, Reddick has finished top three. A year ago in this race he led 174 laps from the pole but finished outside the top 30. In September 2023, he started P3 and finished as the runner-up with 90 laps led.

Overall, this is a similar outlook to Homestead. Both he and Larson are the two drivers that can manage tires and they’re comfortable running along the wall. He also had solid practice speed and he backed it up with a good qualifying effort. Now I will note that the team whiffed on the setup in terms of race trim at Homestead. He logged just nine fastest laps and zero laps led. Luckily he gained a dozen spots in position differential and finished eighth so he returned 50+ points on DraftKings. I’m fine looking at him for this race on Sunday as he’s flirted with a win here in the past.

William Byron – DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $12,500

Byron might be growing tired of the throwback concept for the annual spring Darlington race, but at the end of the day the flame paint scheme on his car helped him land on the pole. Byron’s track history sticks out mostly because he’s collected solid finishes in the NextGen era. But he’s only led 11 total laps across the last four races.

He landed on the pole and should be able to hold off Ryan Preece to lead early on and if he can collect about 15-20 dominator points early on, he will score well with a top 10. And that’s potentially his floor.

He won this race in 2023 but in 2022, he led 74 total laps between both races and should’ve had another good finish at Darlington, but he was punted by Joey Logano in the playoffs in 2022. Despite running in Group B during practice, we didn’t see the car in the longer run. That is a bit concerning but at the same time, it tells me he really likes the car.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $11,000

Blaney’s been going through it the last handful of weeks. I was very heavy on him at Homestead a couple weeks ago in terms of exposure. That blew up in my face when his engine blew up in stage three. The Homestead performance is at the core of why I want to go back to this play.

Despite finishing 36th, Blaney still had 55.3 dominator points and had an absolute rocket of a car. Blaney’s average finish at Darlington is dragged down because of the fact he didn’t finish either race at this track in 2024. Moreover, he also hasn’t really been a big dominator at this track.

But the long run speed in practice indicates he could be in the top five and we know this car was elite just a couple weeks ago at Homestead. I’m going back to the well because he’s bound to pay off in a big way at some point.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $9,000

If we’re looking to pay up for dominator points, we need position differential potential in the mid-range and that’s what Chastain offers. The car was rather mediocre in the short run but I expect him to do well in the longer run. If he can finish in the top 10, it’s likely he’s returning over 50 fantasy points on DraftKings.

The Watermelon Man has a pair of top five finishes at Darlington in the last three races here. Funny enough, he started P25 at Homestead a couple weeks ago and finished outside the top 30. But he raced in the Xfinity Series race on Saturday and was able to log extra laps which is never a bad thing at a track like Darlington.

All in all, there isn’t much to overthink. Ross is a bit of a pest on the track at times but the car and talent is there to move up and score well if he can avoid any chaos and stay off the wall.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $9,500

Bubba enters Darlington with a lot of momentum. He has back-to-back top three finishes at Homestead and Martinsville. That Homestead result weighs heavy because he led 56 laps but just didn’t have the long run speed of Kyle Larson or Alex Bowman.

And I know I usually preface Bubba with the fact that he needs to run a perfect race. And that’s even more true at Darlington where the drivers are racing the track in addition to the field. But Bubba does have four top 10 finishes in his last five races here.

Moreover, his pit crew has been really helping him gain track position week after week and it’s helped him register those top three results the last two weeks. The long run speed looked fine in practice and we know his teammate (Reddick) and boss (Hamlin) are good here as well. Bubba’s start spot relegates him to just GPP’s and you can probably gain leverage on the field with 20-25% exposure.

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,500

I’m sure plenty of you will be wondering why I’m going Keselowski over Alex Bowman especially after the latter had a great showing at Homestead two weeks ago. I mostly believe this is potentially a week where Keselowski figures it out and bounces back. It looks like it could be a solid week for RFK Racing and Bowman doesn’t have the upside here that Kez has shown.

Keselowski’s lone win with RFK came at this track a year ago and it really wasn’t much of a fluke. He started P2 and finished third in stage one, then was second in stage two. Ultimately, he led 37 laps and got the win.

It’s been a brutal start to the year but there was good speed in practice, but he was also in Group A. There’s win juice here and position differential. Even if he finishes 10th with no dominator points he’s looking at 5.5X value on DraftKings.

Josh Berry – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $7,800

Similar to Brad Keselowski, Josh Berry had good speed in practice but qualified poorly. So that plays to our advantage. Berry had a great showing at this track last year with Stewart-Haas Racing as he started P33 and finished third. And we also shouldn’t forget that he had some great runs here in the Xfinity Series, finishing as the runner-up in May 2021 and he grabbed a top five finish in September 2023.

We saw him get the win at Vegas a few weeks back and while Vegas doesn’t feature the tire wear of Homestead or Darlington, it’s still a track where the surface is on the older end of the spectrum so there’s moderate wear. Berry may not have as much experience here as the rest of the field. But he’s also no spring chicken. He’s an affordable PD option that can also go out and potentially collect some dominator points.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Erik Jones – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $6,500

I have to mention Jones for two reasons. The first being that he starts P34 and we saw him finish 15th at Homestead two weeks ago. For what it’s worth, he was only $6,100 on DraftKings for that race. That's not the case this week. But Jones is also a two-time winner at Darlington.

I do want to add a caveat. One of those wins came with Joe Gibbs Racing. That equipment is clearly among the best in the field. His second win came in the 43-car during the first year of the NextGen car. That was a year where several teams were figuring things out with the new car. 19 different drivers won a race that year.

Not to mention, Jones was also driving a Chevrolet that year. In 2023, the organization switched to Toyota and things haven’t quite been the same since. But Jones still starts very deep in the field for this race and can move up. But even a top 20 would only result in roughly a 5X return so he’ll either need to move up more or collect some fastest laps along the way.

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $6,800

Preece is riding the momentum of three straight top 10 finishes and he’s returned 50+ fantasy points on DraftKings in four straight races. It feels odd to say, but it’s almost like he’s been RFK Racing’s best driver so far this year, and if you are nervous about playing the pole sitter, then maybe consider Preece as a pivot.

We also know that Preece and his team aren’t afraid to get off strategy and go their own way in a race. He was one of the first to switch to the option tire at Phoenix and he grabbed 25+ dominator points in doing so. 

Preece qualified P2 which might suppress ownership a bit. And by no means would I feel okay playing him in cash games. But I love the idea of playing him in GPP’s. He’s very affordable and if he can get the lead in stage one, he can collect dominator points. That’s huge from a value option and he had the second-best long run speed in Group B’s practice session.

Noah Gragson – DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $6,200

It’s hard to tell how good the car is in the long run. But in Group A’s practice session he flashed top five speed across the 10-and-15 lap metrics. But then he only qualified P26. That’s fine, I don’t care about one lap or short run speed at Darlington.

But Gragson also had great success on higher tire wear tracks in the Xfinity Series. He was always dominant at Homestead where he got a win along with multiple top five finishes. At Darlington, he led 40+ laps in five-of-eight races and grabbed a win as well. He could be a sneaky value option with PD on his side that can manage tires, but the equipment is my lone concern. He only has one top 15 finish this year and it came at a road course. Hopefully that changes on Sunday.

Austin Hill – DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $3,000

For this race, I feel like we’ll be throwing darts in the value tier. Between wall scrubs, tire management, and the whole “trying to pass other drivers” part I think Hill has an okay floor for a cheap play. He starts P37 so the floor is rather safe.

The equipment is suspect because it’s the third car for Richard Childress Racing. And he’s run a few Cup Series races with underwhelming results. But the kid has talent as he’s racked up wins in the Xfinity Series for RCR. He had a rough race on Saturday but can bounce back and make up for it on Sunday. Even if he only finished 27th, that’s still a 25-point floor since he starts so deep in the field. But trust your gut if you have a different read in this value tier. It’s likely we need to include one of those guys to be able to afford two dominators so you’re hoping you roster a driver that can move up and still score well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-