The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is upon us after another short offseason. It was only about 13 weeks ago we closed the door on the 2024 season which saw Joey Logano claim his third NASCAR Cup Series title, and third straight for Team Penske.

As far as this year goes, we once again kick it off with NASCAR’s own Super Bowl, the Daytona 500. It’s the biggest race of the year and is truly an opportunity for anybody in the field to win this race.

 

 

 

Sure, big names like Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Sr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin have hoisted the Harley J. Earl Trophy. But since 2010, we’ve seen longshots like Trevor Bayne, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. get the job done in the biggest race of the year.

Daytona always delivers as a great environment and exciting race. Let’s dig in and look at the top plays and strategies as part of this week’s NASCAR DFS Picks for the Daytona 500!

Daytona International Speedway always tends to deliver, but let’s not kid ourselves, a large portion of this race could be rather boring. As the drivers jockey for position in the first stage, it’s likely we see a long single-file run in stage two. And we also can’t forget the odd nature of last year’s race where we saw below average speeds from the draft as the field was saving fuel.

Daytona is a large 2.5-mile tri-oval with 31 degrees of banking in the turns and 18 degrees in the front tri-oval section. Due to the nature of this track, we typically endure 200+ laps of “pack racing.” That’s right, the field will mostly run in one large group and that’s where things get dicey.

Daytona and Talladega Superspeedway are very similar in the style of racing they deliver. But we also know that the big one can strike at any second and take out a significant chunk of drivers in the field.

As is always the case, we can do all the research in the world for this race. We can nail the right leverage plays and make a unique lineup without spending all our salary. But at the end of the day, for DFS purposes, this race feels a lot like playing the lottery.

 

 

 

Daytona International Speedway Trends

The trademark of any superspeedway drafting race (Daytona/Talladega) is the looming threat of “The Big One.” There are typically a few massive wrecks in each race that can wipe out 10+ drivers without bias.

Last year’s Daytona 500 had 40 entries. 14 drivers finished multiple laps down. Only half the field finished on the lead lap. Similarly, for the summer race, half the field finished on the lead lap while 19 drivers finished multiple laps down. And I’m including drivers that didn’t finish the race at all in that second group.

The 2023 Daytona 500 required 12 additional laps… So, it was more like the Daytona 530. But again, with 40 drivers in the field only 17 drivers finished on the lead lap while 18 finished multiple laps down.

These drafting races on superspeedways can be largely boring. Jockeying for track position is a big part of this race. We will see teams and manufacturers pitting together so they can emerge off pit road together and build their own line to draft. But largely, if there aren’t any crashes in the first two stages, we may not see a lot of action until the final 15-20 laps in stage three. We can’t even ignore the possibility of single-file racing as the field looks to just burn laps and get to the end of the race to contend.

Late in the race is where we’ll see the most aggressive racing as drivers look to move to the front in the draft. Even from a viewing standpoint, a huge chunk of this race is boring if we aren’t getting carnage or aggressive movers early on. So if you only wanted to tune in for the last 20 laps of this race, who am I to say you’re wrong?

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings & FanDuel Scoring Trends

The dominator points available to us are a nice addition to our builds if we can get them with our drivers. However, the fastest laps on DraftKings will be largely spread out among the field. It’s very unlikely anybody leads more than a dozen. If looking for a fun bet on DraftKings Sportsbook, A.J. Allmendinger was getting +1800 odds to lead the field in fastest laps after he did just that in two Cup Series races at superspeedways in 2024.

“Stack the back” is a term you’ll hear a lot from a NASCAR DFS tout from another site, or even on social media. Lineup construction varies on each site for a couple reasons, but we’ll start with DraftKings.

For DraftKings, we have to account for the dominator points. DK awards 0.25 points per lap led and 0.45 points per fastest lap. And the fastest laps will be distributed rather evenly throughout the field because it’s mostly luck as to which drivers logs the fastest lap in the draft. 

But if you can strike gold on the driver that leads laps early on and (hopefully) finishes well, then you’re sitting pretty. In the driver pool below, I did try to touch on some NASCAR DFS picks that have shown they can lead laps on a superspeedway. And as always, DraftKings gives +/- one point for position differential based on where the drivers start and where they finish.

For FanDuel, the give +/- a half-point for position differential. And they only reward 0.1 points per lap led. However, they also reward 0.1 points per lap completed. That’s right, if your five drivers complete all 200 laps, they’ll receive an extra 20 points on FanDuel. 

If they wreck out at lap 100, they’ll only get 10 fantasy points and likely score poorly with a bad result. So, if you have a driver that wrecks early, it’s a bit more detrimental to your NASCAR DFS lineups on FanDuel than DraftKings.

At the end of the day, on both sites, we also just need to lock in six drivers that finish in the top 10 and we likely need the winner in our lineups as well. Position differential points will come into play as well, but we also get rewarded handsomely for drivers that finish well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings & FanDuel Contest Selection

Sadly, it does appear as if DraftKings is giving less attention to their NASCAR DFS contests this year. The last few years have seen the Daytona 500 get the Milly Maker treatment, but this year the premiere contest on DraftKings is just $500,000 to the winner which is one third of the prize pool ($1.5 million). Crack the top 10 in the same contest out of 70,000+ entries and you’re only getting $5,000 in return on a $25 entry.

FanDuel’s premiere tournament for the Daytona 500 is their Slingshot contest. It’s $15 per entry with $50,000 going to the winner but that’s also 25% of the prize pool. Cracking the top 10 out of nearly 16,000 entries will only return $500. So, the biggest contests leave a lot to be desired in terms of payout structure.

The 20-entry max contest on DraftKings (the Happy Hour and Slingshot) do offer more balanced payout structures. The winner of those contests isn’t taking more than 10% of the prize pool and the structure is more balanced among the rest of the field. However, those fields are still incredibly large and that’s a bit too risky for my liking even if everyone is on a level playing field with just 20 lineups.

I really like the three-entry max contests on DraftKings. As of Friday morning, here are four such contests available on DraftKings:

  • Fender: $1 per entry, $1,000 to the winner (10% of the prize pool), 11,800+ entries
  • Hot Rod: $3 per entry, $2,500 to the winner (10% of the prize pool), 9,908 entries
  • Third Gear: $33 per entry, $3,000 to the winner (10% of the prize pool), 1,060 entries
  • Junebug: $88 per entry, $5,000 to the winner (~15% of the prize pool), 451 entries

While Daytona is still a lottery ticket, these contests are still balance in their payout structures. I tend to avoid the contests where the winner receives more than 25% of the prize pool. In fact, I prefer the contests where the winner is only getting 10-15% of the prize pool. And from there, the payout structure among the top 10 is still reasonable and distributed well without an exorbitant number of entries to compete with.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2025 Daytona 500

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $10,000

We could easily go with Denny Hamlin as well since he’s won this race three times and he starts P8. Hamlin may not draw a ton of exposure, but he’s strictly in play for tournaments. And if I’m being objective, I normally fade Kyle Larson at superspeedways.

The change of heart has to do with his starting spot. Larson is great at qualifying. From 2021-2023 there was a four-race stretch at Daytona where he started on the front row. And he didn’t finish either of the two Daytona races in 2022. So right off the bat, we’re typically writing him off because he starts too high.

At least for this race he’s starting just outside the top 20 so he offers PD. And he did finish fourth in last fall’s race at Talladega. A top 10 finish would only return 45+ fantasy points without any dominator points. So, if playing Larson for this race, we do need his greatest performance ever at Daytona. But we can at least consider him for this race because this is the deepest he’s started in the field for a Daytona race since 2019.

Joey Logano – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,500

For what it’s worth, you can’t write off any of the three Penske drivers (Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Austin Cindric). Even Josh Berry is viable in the 21-car due to the Penske alliance. We know the Fords are among the best drafters in the field because aerodynamically, their cars are designed to push effectively in the draft.

I prefer Logano over Blaney just slightly in tournaments. Logano (P10) starts six spots ahead of Blaney (16) and for tournament lineups, we can’t solely be building lineups with drivers starting deep in the field. We have to take some risks. Penske is regarded by many as the best team for drafting at superspeedways. 

Logano led 79 total laps in last year’s races at Daytona but wrecked in both. But he did win this race back in 2015 and in 2021, Logano was leading the Daytona 500 on the backstretch of the final lap but wrecked when Brad Keselowski tried to pass him and Logano threw a late block. Both ended up wrecking and Michael McDowell was declared the winner.

He rolls off P10 and has the team, manufacturer, and patience to navigate the field and win this race for the second time in his career.

Kyle Busch – DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $13,000

Kyle Busch came into this race as one that is among the favorites to win. If you want to bet him outright, the best value you’re going to get is +1300. But for our Daytona 500 DFS picks, we have to look at Kyle Busch starting P21.

In the six NextGen era races at Daytona since the start of 2022, Busch has an average finish of 9.3 which is tied for the best among full-time drivers with Bubba Wallace. Busch finished second at Daytona last summer, and has been in contention late in the last two Daytona 500’s. In the last four races at Atlanta, he’s finished top 10 in each while leading 52 total laps last year.

Talladega wasn’t great for him in 2024, but he did win the spring race in 2023. With a lot of momentum and his desire to finally win this particular race, he’s a strong DFS play given the starting spot and win equity.

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

Keselowski is a cash game lock for this race. You should have no trouble fitting him in given that it’s so easy to end up leaving salary on the table for these races. Simply put, we’re targeting the position differential here. Due to him wrecking in the second duel Thursday night, he’ll start P34.

That gives him an incredibly safe floor and he’ll be wildly popular in both formats. I’m totally fine eating the chalk in cash games along with everyone else and finding other ways to make my cash lineup unique.

In six races at Daytona in the NextGen era, Keselowski has an average finish of 18.2 with three top 10 finishes and 126 laps led. Even if he just manages to match his average finish, he’d still have a 41-point floor on DraftKings without any dominator points.

The RFK cars did have some mechanical issues in practice and during the duels but I’m assuming all will be fine and I’m happy to eat the chalk in cash games. Now for my GPP builds? I’m probably aiming to be underweight and look for some leverage. But I’d still maybe aim to have 15-20% exposure just to have a handful of builds that get me to Kez.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $8,800

Bell starts P20 and if you’ve followed along in Discord this week or heard my spot on SiriusXM Friday night with Howard Bender and Jim Bowden, Bell is my pick to win. The starting spot does lend him to being a fringe cash game play. I prefer him more in tournaments because for cash games there are safer options starting further back.

But Bell has been one of the better drivers at Daytona in the NextGen era. And while there is still chaos and plenty of variance for this race, I feel okay saying Bell is consistent. Does that mean he’s safe from wrecking? Absolutely not.

In the two Daytona races in 2024, Bell finished third in both and even finished third in the 2023 Daytona 500. He started P21 and finished sixth at Talladega last fall and he also finished fourth at Atlanta last fall after starting P26. Overall, he’s turned into a very strong drafter and the starting spot lends himself to some PD with some win equity as well.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $7,800

Here’s another cash game piece that I’m looking to just lock into my own cash lineups and eat the chalk. Bowman was a victim of the late wreck in the second duel Thursday night and he starts very deep in the field. And that’s perfect for our cash lineups because he offers a safe floor since he can’t lose a ton of PD.

For a lot of the hype and credit we gave to Brad Keselowski as a cash game target, Bowman is cheaper and arguably a better lock because he starts further back. In six Daytona races in the NextGen era, Bowman carries an average finished of 11.2 with back-to-back top five finishes in the Daytona 500 including finishing as the runner-up a year ago. He also grabbed a top five finish at Talladega last spring and another top five result at Atlanta in the fall.

We’ll run the same experiment with Bowman as we did with Keselowski. From where he starts, if he simply matches his average finish at Daytona, he’s returning nearly 60 fantasy points. Even if he just finished in the top 20 with no dominator points, he’d still provide 41 fantasy points and 5X value. Lock him in for cash games.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $8,000

Stenhouse is definitely a “checkers or wreckers” kind of play. Does he start deep in the field? He sure does! P31 in fact! And he’s regarded as one of the best drafters in the whole field.

However, despite the appealing starting spot, I’d prefer to only use him in GPP’s. We consider him a checkers or wreckers play for a reason. In the six points-paying races at Daytona since 2022, he’s wrecked in five of them. The one race he didn’t wreck was the 2023 Daytona 500 and he won that race (where he also started P31).

He won last fall’s race at Talladega and finished fourth in the spring race at Dega last year. He’s a high upside play with a very low floor, so I feel much better about him in tournaments because of the drivers starting this deep, he just strikes me as one that’s not likely to avoid the big one.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $6,500

Some may look at Daniel Suarez and be mildly turned off by the results at Daytona, but I’m very intrigued overall with what he can do in superspeedways and in the draft. He did wreck in both Daytona races last year, but in 2023 he finished seventh after starting P24. 

Even at Talladega last year, he had some tough luck with two finishes outside the top 25. However, in the three previous races at Talladega he grabbed a trio of top 10 finishes.

We also can’t overlook his results at Atlanta’s new configuration that coincides perfectly with the NextGen car. In six races, he’s finished sixth or better in five of those contests including his dramatic win last spring. Atlanta isn’t a direct comparison to Daytona, but it’s a smaller track that still correlates well because the re-configuration does require more drafting but on an intermediate track.

I anticipate he still draws decent ownership and exposure. However, there are so many popular options starting outside the top 20 and he might come in with lukewarm rostership numbers.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Martin Truex Jr. – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $6,200

He will be very popular for this race. He’s playable in all formats simply because he starts second-to-last. If he finished 40th (dead last) he’d return zero points. That’s his absolute floor, which is terrible. But there are drivers starting in the top 10 that return negative points if they wreck out. 

Truex is now retired from full-time racing. However, he did run the last six Daytona races in the NextGen era with an average finishing position of 16.5 and he finished top 15 in the last three Daytona 500’s. If he finishes in the top 20, he’s flirting with 6X value. This is a potential play to lay off of in tournaments, but another great cash game play overall because of the safe floor.

John Hunter Nemechek – DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $5,200

For what it’s worth, I also really like Riley Herbst in this price range, but he’s probably going to draw more exposure among the field in tournaments because he’s a good drafter and will be in a 23XI car. You can mix in exposure to Herbst by also betting him to win at +8000 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

John Hunter Nemechek probably isn’t drawing a ton of interest from the field. There are great options starting outside the top 20 that offer a safer floor, and I just think the field sleeps on JHN. Let me be clear, this not a cash game recommendation. JHN is purely a GPP play.

In last year’s Daytona 500 he started P10 and finished seventh. Last August, he started P31 and finished 15th in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Even way back in 2020 with Front Row Motorsports, we saw him finish 11th in both Daytona races that year despite starting outside the top 20 in both races. Two years ago, in the Xfinity Series he finished as the runner-up to kick off the 2023 season at Daytona. And even in last year’s Xfinity race he finished seventh.

The good news for JHN is that he is in a Toyota which means he’ll be drafting and pitting among the likes of Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr., Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, and even Jimmie Johnson. So, for a leverage play, this is a driver I’m personally going to be overweight on for my tournament builds because the starting spot might just turn most DFS players off.

Zane Smith – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $4,800

Smith wrecked early in the first duel Thursday night and he starts outside the top 30 for Sunday’s race. Yes, this is another guy I’d want in my cash game lineups because of the safe floor he provides. He starts deep in the field which gives him a nice floor/upside combination due to position differential.

You want to hear about consistency? Zane Smith has finished 13th in all three of his Cup Series races at Daytona and that includes the last two Daytona 500’s where he started in the top 20 for both races. Last August, he started P30 and finished 13th for the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

The results at the other drafting tracks aren’t as noteworthy. However, he started P39 and finished 21st last fall at Talladega (with seven fastest laps) for 42 fantasy points. A month earlier at Atlanta, he started P34 and finished 21st (with 11 fastest laps) for 39 fantasy points.

If Smith simply finishes in the top 25, he’s delivering 5X value. But if he finishes in the top 20, which he’s very capable of doing, then he’s bringing in 40+ fantasy points and nearly 7X value. And for a guy who has two Truck Series wins at Daytona, I really like the potential here and certainly think he’s worth some action at +9000 as the outright winner at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cody Ware – DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $4,200

Of drivers who made the field, he’s the cheapest option on DraftKings. We won’t feature Mr. Ware a ton in these NASCAR DFS Playbooks, but for our NASCAR DFS picks for the Daytona 500, we can go here for a few reasons.

For starters, I don’t get the sense he’ll draw a ton of ownership, and the reasoning is thus… Salary is largely irrelevant for this race. Because of that, most players likely won’t need to get to Cody Ware, who starts P28 because he doesn’t offer as much PD. There are still affordable drivers starting outside the top 30 with more win equity.

In the 2021 Daytona 500, Ware started P35 and finished 21st. In 2022, the first year of the NextGen model, Ware started P32 and finished 17th and later that year he started P33 and finished sixth in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. In the 2023 Daytona 500 he started P35 and finished 14th. And last summer he started P33 and finished fourth. Even last fall at Talladega, he started P34 and finished 12th.

I do think he has some cash game appeal because absolutely nobody is going to want to play him as most will truly try and stack the back. But I love this play for tournaments and can stomach rostering him in cash games as well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

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