NASCAR DFS Picks: Ambetter Health 400 Playbook, 2/23 – Atlanta Motor Speedway

The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is in full swing after an exciting weekend that was capped off by the Daytona 500! William Byron went to victory lane for the second straight year while also locking himself into the playoffs. The Fords, especially Team Penske, looked to be the class of the field last week. Austin Cindric, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano all had their opportunities running up front. Alas, the typical chaos revealed itself at Daytona and we were fortunate NASCAR avoided throwing out the caution flag.

Atlanta took a while but 2024 delivered on some great racing and we can only hope for a similar outcome on Sunday. Let’s dig in and look at the top plays and strategies as part of this week’s NASCAR DFS Picks for the Ambetter Health 400!

Atlanta Motor Speedway caught some flack in 2022 and 2023 for some rather boring racing. The drafting aspect on a mile-and-a-half track wasn’t all that appealing, especially when the field was capable of racing single-file for a majority of the race. That changed a little bit last year.

The Spring Atlanta race delivered with a photo finish that saw Daniel Suarez edge out Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch. Even the playoff race at Atlanta was exciting as Suarez was again in the mix while his teammate, Ross Chastain, was looking to assist and push him to the win. Alas, it was Joey Logano, who had some help from Ryan Blaney, who was able to get the win on his way to another Cup Series Championship.

As is always the case, we can do all the research for a race like this and still whiff. We can nail the right leverage plays and make a unique lineup without spending all our salary. That’s the nature of NASCAR DFS. This track doesn’t have as much variance as Daytona or Talladega but we’re still looking to leave a little salary on the table while building around the right dominators and position differential plays.

Atlanta Motor Speedway Trends

Atlanta Motor Speedway was ripped up after the 2021 season and repaved/reconfigured. The old surface was wiped out. The whole track was essentially re-done to turn this into a 1.5-mile drafting race. The first couple iterations of this race weren’t very good. It required a bit of a “feeling out” period as the drivers were also getting accustomed to the NextGen car in 2022. In two-of-six Atlanta races we’ve seen the polesitter dominate this race.

But last year delivered some excitement and we all took it as a sign that the drivers figured out how to run this track and give the fans some entertaining racing. Last year’s race saw 10 total cautions and 15 drivers finish off the lead lap. I was a big fan of 14 different drivers leading a lap. The playoff race last September similarly offered eight total cautions and 14 different leaders.

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

As you can see by the race trends we really are getting a nice DFS mixture of drivers moving up in addition to a few drivers leading 20+ laps every race.

In each of the last five Atlanta races we’ve seen at least eight drivers gain at least 10 spots in position differential. In that same sample size there have been at least a dozen drivers in each race to move up at least six spots.

Let’s take a look at how the starting spots have performed over the last five races.

As you can see, the polesitter has fared very well the last few races. But as I’ve mentioned a couple times in this article, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott both won a race here from the pole and each led 95+ laps in their respective race. That’s inflating the numbers a little bit. But don’t sleep on Austin Cindric, who starts P2. I’ll elaborate more on him later on.

But the usual patterns of the back of the field scoring better take shape as well. And this makes sense as those drivers have the benefit of position differential. So once again, a superspeedway lineup construction approach is fine. But we should be targeting more dominator points considering we could see multiple drivers get to the lead.

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Contest Selection

I was curious how both DraftKings and FanDuel would handle their DFS contests coming out of the Daytona 500. And I am a bit disappointed for a couple reasons. DraftKings did away with their Milly Maker this year for Daytona, and for the second race of the season they’re offering $100,000 to first place in the Engineer contest which features almost 35,000 entries.

And again, we’re getting bad payout structures in DraftKings’ 150-max and 20-max contests. So if you’re playing those contests, then you really need to be taking some risks. I do prefer the payout structures in DK’s three-entry contest. For example, their Hot Rod contest is three-entry max with a $20,000 prize pool. The winner gets $2,000 while 10^th place wins $200 and the total entries are under 8,000. That’s not bad for $3 per entry. Similarly, their Bump and Run contest is another three-entry max option for $20 per entry. The prize pool is $15,000 with a field of just 882 entries. The winner gets $1,500 (10% of the pot), and the 10^th place finisher gets $200 which is reasonable.

FanDuel isn’t much better, but we tend to set the bar rather low since they’ve historically never offered massive payouts for NASCAR. Their featured contest is going to be their Slingshot contest at $9 per entry. But the field for that is capped at 10,582 entries and rewards $20,000 to first. So it’s basically a third of the size of DK’s premiere contest, it’s more affordable, and it’s easier to make unique lineups on FanDuel since there aren’t really salary constraints and most players force themselves to use all their salary.

Similar to DraftKings they also offer a 20-max contest with their Bump N Run where the winner gets $5,000 and the field size is reasonable at under 10,000 total entries.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Ambetter Health 400

We didn’t have qualifying for this race and that will be a trend we revisit whenever NASCAR visits Daytona, Talladega, or Atlanta. Saturday’s qualifying efforts left us with a lot of chalk to navigate so let’s take a look at our favorite Ambetter Health 400 NASCAR DFS picks…

Top Ambetter Health 400 DFS Picks

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

There’s a bit of a negative stigma playing the Daytona 500 winner the week after they win the biggest race of the year. And sure, Byron won the 2024 Daytona 500 and then followed that up by finishing 17^th in last February’s race at Atlanta.

But at the end of the day, it’s tough to lay off him here. In the NextGen era, which coincides with the new Atlanta configuration, Byron has two wins at this track. Over the last 19 “drafting” races, he’s won four of them. So I’m inclined to play the guy without much hesitation.

We can also take comfort in the fact that he’s starting P16 and offers some position differential. He will be popular for tournaments

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $14,000

Blaney’s teammate, Joey Logano, is very live in this price range as well. After all, he’s won twice at “new” Atlanta. But if you noticed the starting spot chart from earlier in the article, you’ll see that the polesitter fares rather well here in terms of DFS scoring. Granted, both Logano and Chase Elliott won from the pole at Atlanta while each leading over 95 laps.

But who is to say that Blaney can’t do something similar? In the last six Atlanta races, Blaney has an average starting spot of 3.5 so he’s no stranger to qualifying well. His average finishing position of 7.2 is best in the field and he’s led 20+ laps in each of the last three Atlanta races.

Because of the starting spot, we should really only be targeting him in tournaments, but if you feel confident that he won’t bust for cash games, then play him in that format as well if you see fit.

Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $11,500

This is considered Elliott’s home track, but he hasn’t led a single lap here in any of the last three races. But he does roll off P19, so he does correlate well with any lineups that feature William Byron.

Elliott did win here in July 2022 where he led 96 laps and he does have the third-best average finish in the field at 8.6 behind Blaney and another driver we’ll get to later in this article.

He’s rather underrated as a drafter in this format, but we also know we need to be targeting PD alongside top 10 equity. We know he has the equipment and experience to even grab a top five finish so NASCAR’s most popular driver is a good fit for our Ambetter Health 400 DFS picks.

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $10,500

We close out the top tier of our NASCAR DFS picks with Denny Hamlin. Hamlin’s a bit of a layup this week. He rolls off P37 and has quite the combination of both floor and ceiling for Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400 DFS contests.

Hamlin’s luck here isn’t great as he has a 20.2 average finish in six Atlanta races. Even in the Fall during the playoffs he started P38 and finished 24^th. But even if he grabbed a top 20 finish on Sunday, he’s still returning 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings and if he grabs some dominator points, then that’s gravy.

You should be locking Hamlin in for your cash game lineups and taking your own stand for tournaments. He will garner plenty of ownership so as someone who will be building 20+ lineups on Sunday, I may aim to be underweight, but not fading him completely. 20-25% exposure seems reasonable.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

I really like Cindric for tournaments. I’m not comfortable enough to play him in cash games because of the starting spot. But there’s significant upside in tournaments.

If you reference the starting spot charts above, the P2 starting spot is still averaging slightly more than the average points over the last five races. And remember, Logano and Elliott’s wins from the pole are inflating the average scores for the polesitter.

We also know Cindric is a great drafter. He’s a previous Daytona 500 winner and while I was off him last week, I even acknowledged in Discord how good he looked in the draft during last week’s race. The projections are somewhat bearish on him just because of the potential for negative PD. But maybe he exceeds the laps led expectation.

In his last five Atlanta races he hasn’t finished worse than 12^th. Moreover, in his last four Atlanta races he’s won the second stage three times and that’s usually the stage where the field is content running single file. He finished fourth in this race a year ago and he led 32 laps. Then in the playoffs he finished 10^th with 92 laps led. He has a ton of upside for this race and if the price tag doesn’t turn most DFS players off, then the starting spot probably will. And that’s exactly why I want to be overweight on this play.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $8,000

This is a very friendly price tag for Bubba Wallace as we dig into the mid-range for Sunday’s NASCAR DFS picks. Our NASCAR DFS Projections certainly like him a good amount as he’s projected to finish second.

Bubba’s history in six races at new Atlanta isn’t great, but he did finish top five in this race a year ago. And anytime we go to a track that features any kind of drafting, we should have him on our radar.

There is a bit of win equity here because of the style of racing but even for DFS, he offers position differential from P14 and there’s some win juice as well.

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

Bell was my pick to win the Daytona 500 last weekend and it just wasn’t meant to be. I feel good about the read because when he wrecked in stage three, he was running in the top five. But even I’ll admit, the car didn’t look like it could handle running up front and lead the draft.

Over the last six Atlanta races, Bell has an average finish of 17.7 but he finished third in this race two years ago and was fourth last Fall in the playoffs. There’s still some variance for this race but we also have the safety net of Bell starting P32. Our NASCAR DFS Projections have him as the top projected scorer on DraftKings and second-best scorer on FanDuel.

He will come with heavy ownership, likely more than Hamlin simply because of the savings we’re getting. But the price is phenomenal on both sites and he exceeds 5X value on DraftKings with a top 15 finish and no dominator points.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $10,000

Track history plays a big role in this pricing. Perhaps the DFS sites have picked up on the fact that Suarez has developed into a drafting threat. Ryan Blaney leads the field in average finish at 7.2 but Suarez is at 7.3 just behind him.

Suarez won this race a year ago, but he’s also finished top six in five of the six Atlanta races in the NextGen era. Moreover, he’s finished in the top two in three straight races and he started outside the top 20 in each of those three contests.

Sunday is no different. He rolls off P29 and will be a popular option across the board. But it’s possible that with so much chalk for this race, we don’t see too much emerge from the back of the field. The pricing and PD delivers a similar outlook to Christopher Bell for both cash games and tournaments.

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $8,200

If ever such a thing existed, Chastain might be my favorite play on the slate among the cars starting deep in the field. There are recognizable names like Denny Hamlin, Daniel Suarez, and Christopher Bell. And Chastain carries name recognition, but he doesn’t jump off the page as a guy that could carry more ownership than them, but it’s a possibility.

Chastain actually has the sixth-best average finish over the last six Atlanta races. He’s finished 13^th or better in five of the six races at the new configuration. He finished 13^th last year but remember, he wasn’t eligible for the playoffs and was largely trying to help his teammate, Daniel Suarez, get the win to move on to the next round of the playoffs.

Chastain finished as the runner-up in both Atlanta races in 2022 where he led a combined 74 laps. Even in last Fall’s playoff race he led 13 laps. This time around he starts outside the top 30 and is among my favorite plays on the slate.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $7,000

Here’s another popular option that’s a PD goldmine if all plays out appropriately. In four career races in the Cup Series at Atlanta, Gibbs only has an average finish of 17.5 but even if he finished 18^th in Sunday’s race, he’s really getting close to 6X value.

Gibbs managed to lead 37 laps in last year’s race despite finishing 17^th. But aside from that finish he also has a pair of top 10 finishes here and he won at this track three years ago in the Xfinity Series.

The equipment is great and the good news is that he has two teammates starting deep in the field with him (Hamlin and Bell) so he should have no problem moving up as this race plays itself out.

Erik Jones – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $6,800

Jones is a good drafter. Anytime we go to a superspeedway, we have to have him on our radar. The only problem is that the average running position typically outweighs the average finish. He’s 10^th among full-time drivers in average finish (14.7) at Atlanta.

In the four races in 2022 and 2023 he finished no worse than 14^th including a pair of top 10 results. However, last year when the organization flipped from Chevrolet to Toyota, this team struggled. He finished outside the top 20 in both Atlanta races a year ago so that gives me some pause.

Jones has done okay in the small sample size so far in 2025. He finished second in his Duel ahead of the Daytona 500 and then finished 12^th last week but started in the top five. That isn’t the case this weekend as we get PD out of Jones starting P28, but you hope he finds the magic that he had in 2022 and 2023.

Justin Haley – DraftKings: $6,700 | FanDuel: $4,200

Haley provides some savings and actually has a better average finish (13.3) than Jones at Atlanta Motor Speedway. In four of six races at the new configuration, Haley has four top 12 finishes. The drafting aspect that’s been added to this track certainly plays to his strengths.

With Rick Ware Racing, in some rather sub-par equipment, Haley started P31 a year ago and finished 20^th. Then in the playoffs, he started P29 and finished 12^th.

Last weekend with Spire he started P35 and finished 19^th for the Daytona 500. Haley is a notoriously good drafter evidenced by his numerous superspeedway wins in the Xfinity Series. He doesn’t carry much win equity for Sunday’s Cup Series race, but he is an intriguing value option that may go overlooked because he starts P21.

Corey LaJoie – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $5,500

He will be a popular value play and I do prefer Haley as a pivot in tournaments. Anytime there’s a race at Daytona, Talladega, or Atlanta there’s always a moment in each race where we think “Oh wow, LaJoie has a chance to win this thing,” but then we remember he isn’t very good.

He is good for DFS purposes for this race. LaJoie starts P35 on Sunday but has an average finish at Atlanta in the top 15. He finished top 15 in both races last year with Spire Motorsports and even has a pair of top five results on his resume from 2022 and 2023.

He finished outside the top 20 last weekend. And we should remember that he’s now with Rick Ware Racing and that equipment is less-than-ideal. But don’t forget what Justin Haley did with RWR in his two Atlanta races last year. I’m of the mindset that when building tournament lineups to avoid chalk in this range. But I do think LaJoie is viable in cash games based on the track history. He only needs to finish 23^rd to return 5X value.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

• DraftKings
• FanDuel

$ Tier	D
High	Ryan Blaney $14,000
	Joey Logano $13,500
	William Byron $12,500
	Austin Cindric $12,000
	Chase Elliott $11,500
	Brad Keselowski $11,000
Medium	Denny Hamlin $10,500
	Daniel Suárez $10,000
	Christopher Bell $9,500
	Kyle Larson $9,000
	Ross Chastain $8,200
	Bubba Wallace $8,000
	Tyler Reddick $7,800
	Chase Briscoe $7,200
Low	Ty Gibbs $7,000
	Erik Jones $6,800
	Michael McDowell $6,500
	Ricky Stenhouse $6,200
	Corey LaJoie $5,500
	Riley Herbst $4,500
	Justin Haley $4,200