NASCAR DFS Picks: AdventHealth 400 Playbook, 5/11 – Kansas Speedway
Published: May 11, 2025
The NASCAR Cup Series goes from arguably its worst track, to one of the best. If I had my choice, Kansas Speedway would host the NASCAR Cup Series Championship every November. The problem with that? Well, this isn’t exactly a “destination” city. But to that point, NASCAR did announce that Championship weekend will once again be returning to Homestead-Miami in 2026! We only need to endure just one more year of Phoenix!
But for this weekend, we do get some great racing. Last week brought some entertainment in the form of chaos and unpredictability. Hopefully this weekend we can get entertainment in the form of different leaders, passing, multiple grooves, tire management, etc. Let’s dig in and take a look at this weekend’s NASCAR DFS picks for the AdventHealth 400!
Kansas Speedway follows the blueprint of those “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. That’s about all that it has in common with Texas, which we saw last week. Texas is a bit of a mess and often gets downgraded because the drivers believe it only has one preferred groove. Kansas doesn’t. Kansas Speedway offers plenty of grooves and opportunities to pass. Overall, the feeling is that the NextGen car has arguably performed at its apex when at Kansas.
Kansas is a tri-oval but the banking in the turns isn’t as high as Texas or Charlotte. It’s a bit more gradual, similar to Vegas which is why we say that Vegas and Kansas are sister tracks. Texas Motor Speedway typically sees a majority of its green flag passing on restarts. On the longer green flag runs is when the passing trails off. Over the last four races at Texas, we’ve only seen 12.73 green flag passes per lap. At Kansas, we’re getting 32.2% more green flag passing with 16.83 green flag passes per lap.
The other beauty of Kansas is that we can look at other tracks. We’re only in May but we can look at this year’s action from Vegas, Darlington, and Homestead. So as frustrating as it was last week to build lineups for a bad track where high variance ensued, we probably have a little more clarity and better reads entering this weekend.
Kansas Speedway Trends
Look at this magnificent table detailing the last five NextGen races at Kansas. It’s the ultimate “chef’s kiss” when we try and decide how to build our lineups.
Each of the last five NextGen races at Kansas has seen four drivers lead 20+ laps. Each race has also seen at least two drivers lead 50+ laps. We’re averaging 8.4 drivers per race that register double digit fastest laps. I even love the fact that in the last four races we’ve seen at least 22 drivers finish on the lead lap. And as we can see from the information above, there are plenty of movers in this race!
So this is a great week to build lineups with at least two dominators. Obviously, there are going to be chalky and popular options based on track history and we know certain drivers do better with this aero package. I’d go so far as to say to look for three dominators on DraftKings in some builds, and then try and round out the build with position differential options.
FanDuel is, and always will be, a bit tricky. Because they don’t reward for dominator points, you’re still wanting one dominator and mostly focusing on position differential and drivers that finish well. And if you want to be unique in your builds, you can leave money on the table because it’s easy to land on chalky lineups on FD.
NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends
The tables above don’t reveal anything too surprising. Obviously the polesitter has a terrific advantage because they can get early dominator points and the track position is always nice. But the top 10 reveals plenty of dominator potential and win equity.
But even deeper in the field we see that it hasn’t really been too difficult for other starting spots to be fantasy relevant. Drivers starting in the teens and 20’s are eclipsing the average points line likely through position differential and getting creative with tire strategy, thus collecting dominator points.
NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: AdventHealth 400
As fate would have it, we’re getting Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher on the front row for Sunday’s race. That’s significant because of how close the finish was in this race a year ago where Larson just barely edged out Buescher.
But the lineup building theory remains the same as we mentioned above. We had a number of drivers tag the wall in qualifying so that’s giving us an abundance of drivers starting deep in the field for Sunday’s race. Last week it wasn’t as fun to build lineups for Texas. Things are looking much different for Sunday’s action.
AdventHealth 400 DFS Picks
Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000
Denny Hamlin has the best average finish among all drivers in the NextGen era. Larson is second but he also finished 26th at Kansas in the playoffs to drag his average finish down just a bit.
Larson has two career wins at Kansas including this very race in 2024 where he led 63 laps. In seven of his last 12 races at Kansas he’s led 60+ laps and that doesn’t include the very first NextGen race at Kansas where he finished second with 29 laps led.
We tend to elevate Larson when NASCAR makes its way to intermediate tracks. He won at Homestead earlier this year (another multi-groove, high tire wear track) and he led 61 laps at Vegas, which is arguably the most comparable track to Kansas. He was going to make the Playbook regardless of starting spot because the dominator potential is just so appetizing.
He slapped the wall in practice but went out and won the pole so he has an easy path to early dominator points.
William Byron – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $12,000
It’s awfully tempting to go with Ryan Blaney. Team Penske has won the last two races and there have been plenty of instances this year where Blaney’s had a rocket of a car, only to run into some form of bad luck and not finish well.
But I give Byron the preference because he flashed top five speed across a few metrics in practice. Byron also finished as the runner-up here last fall where he won the first stage and had a 128.5 driver rating.
Earlier this year he finished 4th at Vegas and he had a wildly impressive showing at Darlington with 243 laps led in a runner-up finish. He’s been kept in check since his Daytona 500 win, but Hendrick Motorsports looks to have very solid speed for the AdventHealth 400.
Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,500
We know the Toyotas have been great here in the NextGen era. More specifically, Denny Hamlin has been phenomenal at Kansas since the beginning of the 2022 season. Last fall, in the playoffs, it was a rather ho-hum performance for Hamlin. He led only one lap, had 10 fastest laps, and then started/finished P8. He had a 100.7 driver rating, but this top eight finish was actually his worst performance at Kansas since maybe 2020.
In this race a year ago he grabbed a top five finish and led 71 laps with 23 fastest laps. In the playoffs in 2023 he led 63 laps and then two years ago in the spring race he got the win with 34 laps led. That marked his fourth career win at Kansas Speedway. In six of the last 11 races here overall, he’s led 30+ laps.
He has two wins already this season and one of those came at Darlington. Darlington is a multi-groove track with high tire wear. Kansas is a multi-groove track with moderate tire wear. And while Hamlin didn’t necessarily have the best car at Darlington, but he still grabbed the win. At Kansas, we’ve seen him dominate plenty of times and is looking for a solid bounce back effort after he had an early exit at Texas last week. Hamlin rolls off P14 for Sunday’s race.
Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,500
Reddick is actually the second-most expensive driver on FanDuel and it makes sense. In five-of-six races at Kansas in the NextGen era, he’s qualified P5 or better and he’s a previous winner here. Granted, in four-of-the-last-six races at Kansas, he’s finished 20th or worse.
But Reddick starts P3, just behind Kyle Larson. And in all six NextGen races at Kansas, Reddick has managed to lead laps including 85 total in the first three races. The P3 qualifying spot is backed up by the third-best 10-lap average from practice.
We also know that Reddick thrives on high tire wear tracks that offer multiple grooves so it should come as no surprise that he makes this week’s Playbook because he works very well as a secondary dominator option for your DraftKings lineups.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers
Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $10,000
Chastain is going to be another driver that garners a lot of ownership. He won this race last fall and while the speed hasn’t been there most of the year for the 1-car it looks like there’s some juice under the hood for Sunday’s race. Even in Christopher Bell’s dirty air in practice, Chastain was still able to post top 10 laps across the entire field.
Chastain led 95 total laps at Kansas across both races in 2024. Chastain also has an average finish of 5.4 at Las Vegas which is the most comparable track to Kansas and just a couple months ago, he grabbed a top five result in Sin City. More recently, we’ve seen him finish 7th at Darlington and he was the runner-up last week at Texas. Even Daniel Suarez had speed last week so things could be looking up for Trackhouse Racing.
The only downside is we likely won’t get any leverage with this play because Chastain starts relatively deep in the field for this race.
Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $10,500
I approach the NASCAR DFS Playbook from more of a GPP perspective. I mention this because Kyle Busch starts P35 because he slapped the wall in qualifying and certainly has a safer floor than Bubba, so he’s better for cash games. And not to mention, the practice speed looked pretty good as well for KB8.
Bubba is a previous winner at Kansas, but the last three races here haven’t exactly gone his way simply because he’s finished outside the top 15 in all three. But recent trends on the comparable tracks are in his favor.
Wallace led 20 laps at Vegas but finished outside the top 25. But he followed that up by finishing third at Homestead with 56 laps led. The shape of Homestead and Kansas may differ but both tracks have multiple grooves and feature some tire wear.
The lone concern I have with Bubba was the practice speed. Sure, he had the fourth-fastest lap in practice, but he was just inside the top 15 in 10-lap averages. I’m not wild about playing a guy who may finish roughly where he starts. But the ceiling is still high based on track history and the speed he’s had on the comparable tracks so far in 2025.
Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,500
This is a rather quick and easy write up for Bowman. He rolls off P21 but is a favorite of the practice-to-qualifying table. In his practice group he arguably had a top three car but overall practice speeds indicate he’s probably a safe bet to be top 10 in speed, and maybe even top five.
In five NextGen races at Kansas, Bowman’s never finished outside the top 10. Last year he finished 6th and 7th and even in the 2022 playoffs, he led over 100 laps here and finished 4th. Earlier this year he finished 7th at Vegas and was the runner-up to Larson at Homestead. He will be a popular click for many NASCAR DFS lineups but he lines up as a driver that should be able to move up through the field with a little win equity to boot.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers
Josh Berry – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $6,500
As we kick off the value section for our NASCAR DFS AdventHealth 400 picks, it’s worth mentioning there are a few options in this low $7K range on DraftKings. Berry, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Preece all start P30 or deeper. That position differential upside is huge. So why am I going with Berry out of this trio? For starters, Keselowski has burned me too many times this year and he’s in timeout until otherwise. And Preece was dreadfully slow in practice.
Berry’s the easy play to mention. He laid down the seventh-fastest lap in practice, but the 10-lap averages put him just outside the top 20. Keselowski, to his credit, was at least sixth in that metric.
But Berry drives the 21-car for Wood Brothers Racing and they have a strong affiliation with Team Penske. Myself and Ed Raus have noted how Penske’s speed is getting better and better with each race. Moreover, we saw Berry win at Vegas earlier this year. But we can’t exactly act like he had the best car for that race. At the end of the day, Berry does start dead last so the floor is incredibly safe.
Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $6,000
This is clearly a deep field GPP only option and you can probably max ownership at 12-15%. Ownership is going to be very low so you don’t need to do much to gain leverage. But I do think Trackhouse Racing found some speed. Chastain may have been the runner-up last week but Suarez also grabbed a top 10 at Texas. And we’ve already touched on Chastain’s practice speed running in dirty air.
Who is to say the 99-car doesn’t also have a little magic? Suarez has finished between 10th and 16th in four of the last five Kansas races. A result like that really wouldn’t do much for our NASCAR DFS lineups because Suarez starts P8. But he did finish second at Vegas and we know this team won’t hesitate to do something for track position at some point in the race.
Again, we’re only entertaining this play in 20-max or 150-max entry contests. We aren’t going here in cash games or single-entry GPP’s. With so much chalk on the table for this race, we do need to find some leverage spots and if he somehow steals a top five finish by having late-race track position, then he’s hitting over 40 fantasy points at just $6,800 on DraftKings.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $3,000
This was a tossup between going with Stenhouse or A.J. Allmendinger. The big knock on Allmendinger is that his practice speeds were very slow. But at the same time, he’s a solid driver with plenty of experience and we don’t get to play Dinger starting P33 too often.
So I am slightly more partial to Stenhouse. His practice speeds weren’t much better than Dinger’s if we’re being honest. But this is still a high speed intermediate track and Stenhouse has momentum after he finished sixth at Texas last week.
Strangely enough, he’s also done very well in the spring races at this track. Since 2022, he’s finished 8th, 12th, and 16th in the spring Kansas races. In the playoffs, he’s finished 30th, 23rd, and 28th. We probably shouldn’t read into that too much but he’s returning value with a top 20 finish so I want to get some exposure here on DraftKings. I’d be surprised if you had to go this low on FanDuel.
Ty Dillon – DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $3,200
Ty Dillon is once again my preferred option if you need a punt for this race. I don’t think you’ll need to go this low on FanDuel, but he’s playable once again on DraftKings.
He grabbed a top 12 finish last week at Texas but that was certainly a higher variance race than we’ll likely see on Sunday. Dillon’s raced here five times in the NextGen era and he’s finished 22nd or better in four of those races. If he manages to finished 22nd on Sunday from P29, then he’s easily getting 5X value for our lineups.
Dillon finished 21st earlier this year at Vegas and then was 16th at Darlington. He’s no slam dunk and he likely loses a few spots early on with better drivers in better equipment starting behind him. But he’s managed to finish every race this year which is more than what Ryan Blaney can say.
NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week
Player Pool
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High |  Kyle Larson  $14,000 |
| Tyler Reddick $13,500 | |
| Ryan Blaney $13,000 | |
| Denny Hamlin $12,500 | |
| William Byron $12,000 | |
| Christopher Bell $11,500 | |
| Medium | Bubba Wallace $10,500 |
| Ross Chastain $10,000 | |
| Chris Buescher $9,500 | |
| Alex Bowman $8,500 | |
| Kyle Busch $8,000 | |
| Low | Josh Berry $7,500 |
| Brad Keselowski $7,200 | |
| Noah Gragson $6,500 | |
| Ryan Preece $5,800 | |
| AJ Allmendinger $5,000 | |
| Daniel Suárez $6,000 |