NASCAR DFS HighPoint 400 Playbook: Top DraftKings and FanDuel Plays

Tell if you’ve heard this before: It’s a home track for Truex. Aren’t all of them? No seriously though, he grew up in southern Jersey so this and Dover are the two closest. Truex is coming off of a dominating performance last week at New Hampshire and backed it up with top-five speed at practice and qualifying. He’s posted an average finish of 8.9 over the last two years at similar tracks and 9.5 at Pocono over the last six. So basically we’re saying he’s another threat this week with a car to back him up. Expect laps led and a shot at the win from MTJ.

Is there anything else we need say aside from the fact that Hamlin has won here seven times (though only six count)? It’s pretty self-explanatory. However, add to that top-10 speed, a P8 starting spot, and a Crew Chief adept at giving him a better car the longer the race goes and the reasons he’s in the playbook is easy to see.

What’s real with Busch this week? The P25 qualifying spot or the P2 single-lap speed and P1 overall lap average at practice? I’m prone to believe the practice speed is closer to real. Busch has been great at tracks that Reddick was great at last year and this should be another week where that’s true. Busch has a heck of a history at Pocono and similar races recently. That combined with the PD upside, and his win on Saturday in the Truck race, will make him a very popular play in both formats.

Whether or not we trust his P3 starting spot because of the cloud cover he had a qualifying or not, he’s still fast. The car was fast at practice and has been fast much of the year. In fact, if we give him credit for winning the first race in 2021 when his tire blew on the final corner, his average finish at Pocono while piloting the 5-car is 2.6. That’s going to make him a threat to win every time he steps foot on the property. The only question this year has been can he keep the car clean and here I think that answer is yes.

Where hasn’t Byron been fast this year? It’s been hard to find a place and now he’s fast again this weekend. Byron is on the pole and ran some of the fastest laps in practice prior to that. Him being the pole-sitter is bound to make him a popular pick in GPPs for those that want a bona fide laps-led dominator option. For cash, there’s still a risk that he drops back and costs you more than he helps so be cautious of that.

The P14 starting spot is probably the best thing for him and us this week. There are plenty of people that will look past him for better PD upside plays and sandwich him for laps-led plays. Don’t get me wrong though, Blaney has some solid value here too. If he finishes P6 and nabs a handful of laps led and/or fastest laps he’ll hit 5x on Sunday. That’s definitely in his wheelhouse, especially at a track he’s won at before.

Had he not spun out of qualifying would he be in the playbook? Well, he ran top-10 in practice and finished P3 (with a technical win) here last year. So yeah, he’d probably be in it, especially at these prices. It doesn’t hurt though that there’s now tons of PD upside from him, aside from making him the easiest play on the board for both formats this week.

Is this the week we finally see the Red Dog show up the way he’s capable? He’ll be starting P7 and should have one of the fastest cars on the track given practice. That’s enough to make him a threat but so is his P4 finish here a year ago. Reddick started to right the ship last week with a P6 finish at New Hampshire and has run well at similar tracks this year. He could easily finish top-five with some laps led.

The argument here is simple. He’s been the most consistent Ford week-in-and-week-out and he’s been mightily good at Pocono. Harvick has nabbed 11 top-10s in the last 13 trips to the Tricky Triangle and there’s no reason to doubt he won’t hang around there all day. Heck, starting P4 he should have a shot to lead laps.

It’s perhaps more tempting to roll with Ty Gibbs who’s starting right next to Wallace in the grid, is cheaper, and showed slightly better speed at practice, However, on the whole, Wallace has been better at similar races this year with more than half his laps inside the top-10 and more than 16-percent of his laps inside the top-five. Had he not hit the wall in round two there’s an argument to be made that he’d be on pole. Top-10 starting spots are pretty helpful at Pocono and he’s got the car and Toyota teammates to hold on to it.

It’s been a rough patch for Bowman lately since returning from injury, but that should change this week. The car has speed, running inside the top-10 much of practice, and his teammates have the proper setup too which shows it wasn’t a fluke. The history at this track and similar tracks is also strong with an average finish of 12.8 in the last six Pocono races and 13.0 in the similar races over the last two years. It was another disappointing weekend at New Hampshire but NASCAR is a week-to-week sport and he’s got the equipment and history to nab a top-10 this week.

While his teammate didn’t bring the speed this week, Suarez certainly did. He ran top-15 in much of practice before qualifying P17. Over the last 12 similar races to Pocono, Suarez has seven top-15s including four top-10s. That also by the way includes a P5 here last year when starting P9. There are a few other drivers around Suarez in the mid-tier of salaries that we might get lower draft percentage than we should which would also be a benefit.

The RFK duo could be interchangeable this weekend but I’ll give credit to Buescher for having better practice times and a slightly worse starting spot while also having run consistently at similar tracks this year. I know that Keselowski has a very strong history here, but this week we’ll take the savings and speed with Buescher. Let’s not forget that Buescher has four top-20s in the last six Pocono races not including him starting P5 last year.

One of my favorite bets of the week that I made was Austin Dillon with a top-10 finish. That was before practice and qualifying but I’m still standing behind it. He ran in the top-15 for much of practice before qualifying P23 but it’s not just that. He’s finished in the top-10 at four similar tracks this year and has six top-12 finishes at similar tracks the last two years. That’s more than enough to like him but there’s also that he’s 3-5K or so less than his teammate who’s starting right behind him in the grid so we get cost savings too.

I know the rest of SHR aside from Kevin Harvick hasn’t been great this year, but this week that might change. Preece had too good of a practice run in single-lap, five-lap, and overall-lap averages to be starting P34. The immediate PD upside here will certainly make him likely the most popular driver in this price range on both sites. If you want a GPP pivot, Erik Jones works as a guy in this range with a strong history here but a bad year and so-so weekend to his credit.

The big news of the week was Haley moving teams in 2024 to Rick Ware Racing. That kind of news can really boost a driver’s mojo. Haley has run well at the comparable tracks to Pocono this year between Auto Club, Vegas, Kansas, Nashville, and Charlotte. Add to that his P13 overall lap average at practice prior to qualifying P22 and we’ve got some upside for Haley.

Stenhouse was on my list prior to practice and qualifying simply on the strength of how he’s run this year. He’s nabbed four top-10s in the last 12 similar races with top-12s at Charlotte and Kansas. He was also running well at Gateway before caught up in something that wasn’t his making. The mid-20s starting position gives some PD upside and he has a shot at a top-15 finish. That’s more than enough to give us value from Stenhouse.

Lajoie is in the midst of a career year right now and he’s the only driver in the field who’s yet to have a DNF on the season. That’s impressive in and of itself, however, he’s still got more for selling points. He qualified P12 and was very close to making the top-10 with his lap before cloud cover gave an advantage to two other drivers. The runs at similar races this year have been all top-20 for the most part. While top-20 isn’t great when starting P12. He has the speed to hold a similar finishing spot compared to his starting spot and that’s enough for value here. There’s also a shot that people don’t play him because of the starting spot.

I was waffling on a decision between Gilliland and Harrison Burton in this spot to be perfectly honest. I still think there is upside to Burton and some leverage, but the clearer play is Gilliland. He’s starting P36, aka dead last, and ran basically the same practice speeds as Burton. So he has the PD advantage but will also be popular. If we look at recent similar tracks there’s a case to be made for Burton for GPPs but overall for both GPPs and Cash, Gilliland is the safer, stronger play.

I know it’s not a plate race but there is something to like about the PD upside we have here. There are plenty of reasons not to play McLeod, his car, his eh performances previously, but there are a couple of reasons to play him as well. He’s bare-bones cheap on both sites which saves money for another top-priced driver. McLeod has also posted some PD upside in previous similar races and at Pocono. That’s good enough for me.