NASCAR DFS Cup Series Championship Playbook: One Race To Decide It All

The regular season champion is looking to nab his second Cup title in three years. It’s been a weird year for Elliott as he did win the regular season title, but not in a dominating fashion. In fact, if he doesn’t lead around 140 laps on Sunday it’ll be the first time that a laps-led leader for the season didn’t top 1,000 laps in front since 1960. The issue with Elliott has been that he’s done enough to finish well but not necessarily command a race and that could be the case once more this weekend. The speed at practice has him squarely in the top 10 in 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-lap averages but not at the top of any. Starting P5 he should have the ability to lead some laps and finish solidly.

Bell is the only driver with two wins out of the eight shorter, flatter tracks this year. That includes his had-to-have win last week at Martinsville as well. He’s also posted the best average finish in those eight races at 8.6. He’s finished no worse than P4 in any of the last four races on this style of track. Now he’ll be rolling off P17 on Sunday after showing middle-of-the-pack speed at practice. Keep in mind though that he did the same thing at Martinsville last week and still won with the fastest car in the closing laps.

Looking for a second title, he’ll start on the pole. That’s a great way to start the championship race. He also had a car that got faster as practice went on as he went from the seventh-fastest 15-lap average to the third-fastest 20-lap average. The Fords, and specifically the Penske ones, have been fastest at shorter flatter tracks than elsewhere all season. Logano won at Gateway earlier in the year which is the most comparable track to Phoenix of the group and that track was tough to pass at as well.

Who will ever forget the move that Chastain pulled in the last corners at Martinsville to make the championship? It’s an all-time great move. Not only did it get everyone talking about NASCAR this past week, it also gives Chastain the momentum heading into Sunday’s race. It’s not only momentum on his side though as he’s posted the second-best average finish in the eight similar races this year and is one of only three drivers with six top-10s in such races. Given that he’s starting P25 on Sunday, he’ll be the chalkiest of the Championship Four drivers, especially in cash builds. There will likely be a lot of Chastain-Logano builds to get the early laps led and the PD combo so be aware of that.

We made reference to the reasoning for Larson in the podcast; if you haven’t listened yet. Larson is also among the drivers going for the owners' championship. That adds the wrinkle we’re after. Rick Hendrick came out and said earlier this week that the best possible outcome for him on Sunday would be for Larson to win the race and have Elliott finish P2 to win both the owner's and driver's championships to maximize the financial benefits this weekend. The trick with Larson is that the speed was questionable at practice and in the Spring he had an engine issue after qualifying inside the top seven. He is likely still more popular than we might think because he’s been fast of late.

So here’s the x-factor for the race. Why is he the x-factor? Well, he’s got nothing to race for aside from helping his teammates win, yet he’s got a ton of speed. At practice, he went from P6 in 10-lap average, to P4 in 15-lap average, to P2 in 20-lap average. That means the car only gets stronger as the laps rack up. That’s the trend we look for on a track like this. Byron has the third-best average finish at similar races this year and has four straight P11 or better finishes. Rolling off P8 gives him a sneaky shot at leading laps at some point and getting a good finish.

It’s a narrative race for Busch. It’s his last one with JGR and his last one with M&Ms or Mars Candy inc. as a sponsor on the car. It’s not just the narrative that’s on his side either, he showed good speed at practice with a P6 in 15-lap average. If he can find the good luck he had going earlier this season, where he had four top-10s at the shorter tracks to start the year including a P7 here and P2 at Gateway, he could be a big piece for GPP lineups. That’s a risk though, more than he’s been in the past.

Blaney is fast again. I know, we’ve heard that before and it hasn’t resulted in a win. But we have to roll with a guy who’s this fast. We just do. He ran the best 5-,10-, 15-, and 20-lap average at practice before qualifying P2. He was on the pole here in March and led over 100 laps before falling back a bit late. We could see a similar result again on Sunday as he and his teammate Logano control the front of the race early on.

Reddick has been hit-and-miss at this style of track for much of the year. That includes last week when a health issue ended his day early. That being said, he did run P3 here in the Spring and has another fast 8-car once more. Like the guy two drivers above in the playbook, there’s also a narrative here as this is the last race for him with Chevy and RCR before losing the road to Busch next year and moving to 23XI. A strong run will not only make him feel good this offseason it’s a good way to rub in what RCR is losing out on going forward.

He’s finished P10 or better here in every race for a decade straight at this point. It hasn’t mattered the generation of car or how the team’s been running at the time or where he’s started, he’s finished inside the top 10. Starting P7 should keep him in a position to do that once more. The value isn’t sexy but it’s reliable for a cash build and that’s where he fits.

Briscoe won here earlier in the year and now he’s seemingly fast again. He will roll off P3 on Sunday and even though he’s not in the championship fight, that shouldn’t stop him from continuing to battle for the lead throughout the day. Back in the Spring, we overlooked Briscoe but the speed was real as he led the most laps. That same setup looks to be in place again this week which should mean that he’s looking at a possible top-five finish. Given the price tag and what everyone knows he did here in the Spring, not to mention his pretty good day last week, he’ll be popular in the mid-tier.

I only put drivers in the playbook who have shown a reason to be there. That’s exactly what Wallace has done. Last week he finished squarely in the top 10 and ran there much of the day. He’s also clearly been a lot faster in the 45-car, for whatever reason, since taking it over late in the year. Kurt ran top-five at Phoenix in the Spring and when we’ve used Wallace at tracks that his teammate ran well at in this car, we’ve had good results. That’s what we’re banking on here. He ran several spots faster in practice than where he qualified, he picked up several spots here in March, and he’s posted three top-13s in the last four shorter races.

It’s a short flat track and thus Almirola should be included in the pool. However, that being said, there is some caution that needs to be used here. Out of the eight similar races this year, he’s only finished better than where he’s started twice, Gateway and Richmond 2. Both are nice comps to Phoenix, but that is concerning. Add in that he ran the 19th-fastest 15-lap average before qualifying P13. There is room for him in GPP builds but he shouldn’t be used elsewhere for the risk of him dropping back even a few spots on Sunday.

Both he and Brad Keselowski are in play this week but I favor Buescher. He ran top-10 here in the Spring, ran well at Richmond including a P3 finish at Richmond 2, and he’s shown top-10 speed this week at practice. There’s perhaps a chance that more people play Keselowski than Buscher given that Keselowski had a better run last week, before being DQ’d but Buescher should be the better play this week for the speed and track-type history.

While the streak of top-20s in the playoffs has ended, Haley still has nice value at this price tag. There’s also hope he returns to the ranks of the top 20 this week as well. He started P28 here in the Spring and finished P17. Then at Gateway he started P28 and finished P14. Though Martinsville wasn’t great for him, Haley did move up 6.5 spots a race across both Richmond races. Haley is still like to be popular as the drivers around him in price aren’t nearly as intriguing this week as he is.

Custer is a risk. That’s for sure. He’s been one his entire Cup career at this point. However, the SHR cars as a whole have been better and more reliably fast at shorter tracks. That was the case last week at Martinsville when Custer qualified P5. He’s coming into this one with back-to-back top-15 finishes at shorter, flatter tracks, and in the Spring at Phoenix, he moved up nine spots to finish P16. The 41-car got faster the longer it was on the track on Friday evening, going from 17th in 10-lap average to 10th fastest in 20-lap average. That bodes well for him as does his needing to put on a show to perhaps save his seat next year. All of that is good for GPPs in DFS.

Burton has been getting better at this style of racing as the season’s progressed. He’s coming in with back-to-back top-16 finishes at shorter tracks. In the last four such races, he’s moved 19 total spots for nearly five a race. While his run at Phoenix earlier in the year wasn’t anything to write home about, he’s clearly gotten better the farther into his rookie year he’s gotten yet he’s still a cheap driver despite the improved results.

The Toddfather is back for the last playbook of the year and why not? He’s been pretty solid this year on similar tracks including running P19 here in the Spring. Oh yeah, he started P33 in that race too. Last week he nabbed a top-15 at Martinsville giving him three top-20s in eight similar races. That’s pretty good for a guy this cheap.