NASCAR DFS Coke Zero Sugar 400 Playbook: Can Chase Elliott Win Into Playoffs?

He needs a win and has a good history at these tracks. There is a question about the overall speed in the Hendrick cars this weekend but a driver will tell you they’ll take handling over speed at Daytona most of the time. Starting P23 means he’ll be popular as not only the most popular driver in the sport but also one who offers a bunch of upside for Saturday night.

We can’t discount Hamlin by any means this weekend. He’s won at Daytona a bunch and is one of the best plate racers in the field at this point. However, the question does arise as to just how much upside is there with him? He’s stated his goal this week is to get Wallace into the playoffs and if that means he’ll finish behind him, that kind of caps his upside a bit. That doesn’t take away the leverage we have here because people with either spend up on Elliott for a bit more PD or spend down on others in a similar starting spot.

Does anyone realize that Blaney has the best average finish over the last nine plate races? He’s the only one averaging a finish in the top-10 and he’s won in that time frame too. He may not need a win this week, but it doesn’t take away from his consistently good runs at these tracks and his ability to be a threat at the end. The only downside is that starting P8 does cap the upside here a bit unless he wins and leads a chunk of laps.

Logano is known as a good, if not aggressive, plate racer. His bona fides speak for themselves. However, we do have to make note of the fact that most of his success has come at Talladega and less so at Daytona despite being the same racing style. In general, though, it’s a bit hit-or-miss with Logano in the last nine plate races with five finishes outside the top-20 and four of P12 or better including three top-three finishes.

He’s won at Atlanta this year and run well at Talladega. Yes, he’s won five times and doesn’t have a need to win or even run well, but that didn’t stop him last week from dominating at Watkins Glen. Even if he runs blocking or support for his teammates like Alex Bowman or Chase Elliott, there’s still copious amounts of PD upside with Byron starting P27 this weekend. Expect him to be popular with that starting spot in both formats.

Much like Logano above him, Kes is a well-known plate racer. Also much like Logano, he’s either finished top-10 or outside the top-25. That’s likely the same result here this weekend. He doesn’t need a win, having locked in via points, but the RFK duo is peaking at the right time and he’s always fast at plate tracks. It’s just a matter of if he can finish the race clean or not. That’s a big IF.

Outside of Denny Hamlin, Wallace is the best plate racer in the Toyota camp and his numbers bear that out. He’s posted one of the best average finishes over the last several plate races in the Cup series and has been in a position to win more than a few, as well as having won at Talladega previously. Wallace is also on the cutline for the playoffs and either needs a win or to not have a new winner to make it. Considering his skill, typical speed here, and Hamlin helping him, he should be in a good position to be a threat to win once more.

Stenhouse was the first driver to lock himself into the playoffs this year when he won the Daytona 500 back in February. Is he a threat to win again? Sure. Everyone is. But is it likely? No. That’s ok though because all we really need is a solid run from him to be valuable to us in DFS. The good news here is that there’s plenty of upside for that with a P32 starting spot. The bad news is that he’ll be popular in all formats because of that. So in cash games we want more ownership than the field and in GPPs, we’ll want less. The same strategy we talked about with Chase Elliott on the podcast.

Just like with Blaney above, does anyone pay attention to Suarez at plate tracks? He’s been running quite well in them since going to Trackhouse and in the Next Gen car. In fact, just talking about Daytona and Talladega he has three-straight top 10 finishes and could very well be in line for another such finish on Saturday. That should also give him some very nice PD upside starting from P22 in the grid.

McDowell was in the playbook before he qualified P39 for Saturday’s race. That will obviously make him a free square for builds for PD. The latest trips to Daytona and Talladega haven’t gone well but Atlanta 2 was a good race for him with a P4 finish. Not being able to get negative points at Daytona is enough reason to put McDowell in some lineups.

Was anyone expecting Bowman to still need a win at this point in the season? He does and this is at least a track he’s shown an aptitude for speed. The good news, and what makes Bowman more playable, is that he’s not starting toward the front like he usually is here. If he can nab a top-10 there’s more than enough value here to make him solid for DFS. Dillon is also in a starting spot that people might not pay attention to either.

We saw Dillon show up here last year needing a win to make the playoffs and pull if off. Is that in the cards again this year? It’s certainly possible given his history in these races, his teammate’s ability, and his team’s ability to show up here too. The thing for DFS though is that we don’t need him to win, just finish well and he has five top-15s in the last nine plate races at Daytona and Talladega.

He’s been solid at plate tracks over the last few years and that’s continued this year as well. Now he’ll be starting P10 on Saturday night with a car, on a team, that’s fast enough to keep him there. While he doesn’t need the win to make the playoffs having locked in on points, there is an interesting storyline here being his last trip to Daytona in his career, a place that gave him a start in the Cup series 22 years ago. If the SHR cars can stay out front all day, there is value at this price tag for a guy we don’t typically think of at plate tracks.

Front-row starters at Daytona are a naturally risky play. It’s even riskier when you consider Almirola’s season. However, one race can change that year and we’ve seen him show up for just one race in a year before. Typically a plate race. Given the speed in the SHR camp this week, it’s entire possible they have a race like they did at Talladega a few years ago and Almirola won that one. He’s only for GPP use this week and should be used cautiously even in those builds.

Jones is always a threat at plate tracks. He just has a knack of this style of driving and avoiding the wrecks. He’s looking for a win to make the playoffs and to turn around the storyline of his season so far. A few of his top-10s this year have come at plate tracks as well as another P11 finish. That’s all we’re really looking for this weekend is a solid finish from the 43-car team.

Briscoe has a checkered history at plate tracks with as many P31 or worse finishes as top-10s — 3 — in the last eight races. He showed up in qualifying, along with the rest of his SHR teammates, with a bunch of speed. Speed doesn’t always matter at plate tracks, but we’ve seen SHR run away from the field at Talladega in the past, so it may happen again this weekend. Ryan Preece is also in play despite a high starting spot given the speed in the SHR cars but both he and Briscoe are GPP plays.

The numbers may not bare out how well he’s been at doing at plate tracks, but the eye test does. Lajoie is always a guy who’s in contention late in the race and has come tantalizingly close to win a couple of times between Daytona and Atlanta. We’ll need him to finally complete one of those runs to really pay off value here. But hey, anything is possible and he has his fair share of lucky items in the car with him this week.

Haley has won these style of races at every level. That includes this race in 2019. The 31-car also has three top-20s at plate tracks this year between Talladega and Atlanta. He’s a known commodity at plate tracks and will likely be popular in both formats because of that but that doesn’t change his top-10 upside at all.

We’ve seen a lot of Gilliland in the playbook this year but he’s been good a lot of places. That includes at plate tracks with two top 10s in the last three trips to Talladega and Daytona. That’s the kind of consistency that we’re looking for at a race like this. When you add Atlanta to the mix he’s posted a P11 and P16 there this year too.

Hill has been dominant at Daytona in the Xfinity series with two wins here in the last four races. He’ll be in the Xfinity race on Friday night which should help him get the flow of the night racing this weekend, though not a true feel. Casual fans will likely look over him for lack of name familiarity but those in the know should be fans of his on Saturday night.

As Malin put in the NASCAR Discord “You can’t spell Riley Herbst without E-L-I-T-E”. That’s a bit tongue in cheek but not completely wrong for plate racing history. He’s been good at lower levels at these tracks and in the Cup Series this year has moved up at least 10 spots in the prior two plate races. He could very well do that again, or more, given the speed he showed in qualifying with his crab-walking car setup.

Yeley finished P11 at Talladega earlier this year after starting P38. So he’s adept at missing the big one and that should be the case again this weekend. He’s likely to get overlooked in this price range, even with the love for cheap drivers this week, and that could help us differentiate a bit.

It’s been few and far between for Dillon to be in the playbook but when everyone is on the same playing field, it’s a week he can show up at. Dillon has been a solid plate racer with an average finish of 23.3 in his last seven plate races including three top-20s. That’s good enough for me to put him in the playbook this week as a cheap option.

There’s always a shot for McLeod to finish top-20 at these races. He’s done that thrice in the last eight races at plate tracks and twice in the top-10. For those using the stack-the-back strategy, he is a very popular option and frankly, in GPPs, he’s as likely as anyone in the back of the pack to move up well.