Cabo Wabo 250 DFS Picks & NASCAR Playbook: Michigan International Speedway

While the NASCAR Cup and Truck Series made their return last weekend at Richmond, the Xfinity Series had an extra week off. But the Xfinity Series is back at Michigan International Speedway. The Truck Series regular season ended last week and their playoff field is set. The Cup Series has three races remaining in their respective regular season. This field still has six races left in the regular season.

There are still four spots available for the Xfinity Series playoff field. The drivers that hold those spots on points are A.J. Allmendinger, Sheldon Creed, Parker Kligerman, and Ryan Sieg. Sieg has a three-point cushion over Sammy Smith, while Brandon Jones is 69 points behind Smith. For Jr. Motorsports to potentially have two drivers miss the playoffs, it’s a bad look. It’s no wonder why there are rumors of a driver shake-up heading into the 2025 season.

Cabo Wabo 250 NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks

Michigan International Speedway plays host to this weekend’s action. Michigan qualifies as an intermediate, but it’s on the larger side. It’s not a “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile tri-oval like Vegas, Charlotte, or even Texas. It does draw some comparisons to Kansas as Matt Selz noted on this week’s NASCAR DFS Podcast. 

The lone tri-oval Michigan may line up with could be Kansas because both tracks feature multiple grooves for racing. But the other two comparable tracks are possibly Pocono and Indianapolis, two tracks we just saw on the schedule prior to the break. And if you really want to dig into your bag, you can consider Auto Club.

We only have 125 laps for this race and stages are broken into 30-30-65 segments. So we have, at most, 87.5 dominator points. But we know the Xfinity Series isn’t going to give us a clean race. Even at Pocono and Indianapolis there were about 30 cautions laps in each race. Even the last three Xfinity Series races at Michigan have averaged about 30 caution laps. If we have another race with 30 caution laps, that costs us about 13.5 dominator points.

A common theme among the previous three races at Michigan was that there was a primary lap leader who ran out front for 50-70 laps. Additionally, there were two other dominators who led between 15-40 laps. Nailing the dominators once again becomes crucial. 87.5 dominator points aren’t a lot. But we also can’t completely write them off like we would for a road course race. We’ll need two dominators finishing well if we want to hit the optimal lineup.

With the multiple grooves, it is possible to pass so we could see some comers and goers. Last year, 10 drivers moved up at least eight spots. Four drivers started outside the top 20 and finished 13^th or better. 2022 didn’t see as many movers, but also, that race saw just four cautions (two for stage breaks) for a total of 19 laps. The 2021 and 2023 races are where the caution numbers are a bit inflated. But 2021 saw more movement throughout the field similar to 2023.

This race will have practice and qualifying Friday afternoon. I will try and have updates in RED Friday evening, but at the very worst, everything will be good to go Saturday morning for this race.

Practice Notes

Top Price Core Plays

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,500)

JHN is no longer a full-time driver in the Xfinity Series, as he’s now with Legacy Motor Club in the Cup Series. But that has not kept him from running a handful of races with XFIN. In fact, he has two wins this year at Vegas and Nashville. Between both those wins he led 175 laps. 

He won this race last year while driving for Joe Gibbs Racing with a 146.3 driver rating and 65 laps led. It’s safe to say they should be bringing a fast car to the track on Saturday and he’s easily in line to be competitive once again. We do need to be mindful that with fewer laps, he would very much need to lead a good portion of those laps with a strong finish to pay off this price tag.

Update: Starts in the exact same spot he won from last year. He's trendy and probably a lock for cash games with this much speed and win equity.

Cole Custer ($10,300)

Initially I wanted to go with Justin Allgaier ($10,200) in this spot, but it’s awfully hard to ignore what Cole Custer did prior to the break. In four of the last five races before the Olympics, Custer led 25 laps in each race. The one where he didn’t get out front was the Chicago street race. 

But amidst those races where he managed to get the lead, he won at Pocono with 14.8 dominator points and then he was second at Indianapolis with 18.95 dominator points and we all know those are good comparisons for Michigan.

Michigan has been an okay track for Custer in his Xfinity Series career. He doesn’t have a win, but he hasn’t been awful by any means. You’re mostly just banking on the organization continuing the momentum they had going into the break.

Update: More exposure will flock to to Allgaier who starts P16, but we can't forget how good SHR was heading into the break at these tracks.

Riley Herbst ($9,800)

Riley Herbst drives the 98-car in the Xfinity Series. He’s also priced at $9,800… Coincidence?! Look, this is a tough salary to swallow for Herbst. Yes, I once again overlooked Allgaier in this section (he probably goes out and wins now), and I gave some thought to Austin Hill ($10,000), but he hasn’t really dominated races very much.

So, I opted for Herbst. Stewart-Haas Racing may be closing up shop after this year, but their two Xfinity Series teams looked great heading into the break. We already touched on Cole Custer’s success at Pocono. But it was Herbst, his teammate, that won at Indianapolis with 15.6 dominator points.

Allgaier may be better suited for cash games rather than Herbst. But this is the Xfinity Series. It’s synonymous with chaos and the unexpected. Herbst can very much go out and wreck and ruin your lineup. Or he can do what he did four weeks ago and break the slate. He has three straight top 10 finishes here, but he certainly seems more confident as a driver this year.

Update: Starting P2 (similar to Indy, where he won) so he's mostly a GPP play.

Mid-Price Core Plays

A.J. Allmendinger ($9,200)

This is a bit pricy for Allmendinger, but I think $9,200 is close enough to qualify for the mid-range. Kaulig Racing has certainly taken some steps backwards this year aside from their ability to compete on road courses. To his credit, he’s finished 11^th or better in five straight races.

When looking at comparable tracks this year he was eighth at Indianapolis and sixth at Pocono. However, he was more affordable for those races. The (good) problem with Michigan is that he’s had success here, so we can lean into this priced up driver. He won this race back in 2021 with a 143.3 driver rating and 70 laps led. Then in 2022 he may have finished seventh, but he still had a 109.0 driver rating with an average running position in the top five.

It was also announced that Allmendinger is returning to full-time action next year in the Cup Series. I’m not sure why the organization keeps going back and forth with where they want him to drive, but a promotion is a promotion and it’s a confidence builder for sure.

Noah Gragson ($8,700)

I still don’t quite know what to make of this equipment. We’ve seen Gragson run two races in this 30-car for Rette Jones Racing. And to his credit, he grabbed top 10’s at Charlotte (with nine laps led) and Nashville. So, he’s making the most of the ride.

The best part is that for those two races, Gragson was $9,500 and we’re getting an $800 discount. So while we still don’t know what to make of the equipment, we do know that Gragson’s had plenty of success in the Xfinity Series in the past.

Gragson does tend to thrive on these tracks. With Jr. Motorsports in 2019-2022 he never had a driver rating lower than 105 at Michigan and he never finished worse than third. This 30-car won’t be as good as what he drove with JRM but given what we’ve seen from him in this car, $8,700 might not be all that hard to pay off.

Parker Kligerman ($8,000)

There are some good mid-range options this week. I am downgrading Kvapil as you'll see below. I do like Kligerman who starts P22 at just $8,000. He finished 12th and Indy and eighth at Pocono. He's very much in play for cash games as a top 12 finish gets him to 5X value, and if he finishes ninth he's hitting 6X value, plus he could log a few fastest laps.

His car has been great on the larger tracks and they'll have their superspeedway engines for this track.

Carson Kvapil ($7,800)

I feel bad because it seems like I write up Kvapil whenever he does step into the 88-car. But at this price tag, I have a hard time passing him up. Was he great at Indianapolis? Not really. He started P7 and finished 10^th so it was a pretty mild performance overall simply from a DFS perspective.

But in six races in the 88-car for Jr. Motorsports, he’s only finished outside the top 12 just once. Exposure and how good of a play he is will be determined by where he qualifies.

I was a little worried about the size of the track at Indianapolis. It wasn’t a great DFS day, but a top 10 finish is a top 10 finish. I’m hoping he comes out swinging and is competitive, but we’ll likely need to pivot if he once again starts inside the top 10, similar to Indy.

Update: I think I'm still okay getting to Kvapil because he has top 10 upside, but the P8 starting spot isn't ideal as we just saw a few weeks ago.

Value Price Core Plays

Ryan Sieg ($7,500)

It would be nice to lay off Sieg every now and then. But DraftKings typically makes him fairly easy to get to on a week-to-week basis. In nine races at Michigan, he’s never finished worse than 19^th. In fact, in seven races here he’s finished between 12^th and 15^th.

So he has upside to finish at this price tag, but we do need to squeeze some position differential out of him. He was top 12 at both Pocono and Indianapolis heading into the break so at least we know the car is good enough for the comparable tracks, and his team has an affiliation with Stewart-Haas Racing.

Sieg has posted 35+ fantasy points on DraftKings on 10 occasions this year, so the floor is there. Is there win equity here? Not really, but it is interesting that he contended for the win at an intermediate like Texas. I do think that despite the resume on this track, he can grab a top 10 here but another finish between 12^th and 15^th seems far more likely.

Update: The good news is that Sieg can still very well finish between 12th and 15th. The bad news is that he's starting P7 and probably too high. He gets a similar downgrade to Kvapil.

Daniel Dye ($7,200)

Daniel Dye clinched his spot in the Craftsman Truck Series playoffs last week at Richmond so he certainly has some momentum. He steps back into the 10-car for Kaulig Racing this weekend with no truck race so he should be plenty focused for Michigan.

Dye has shown growth and maturity as a driver this year as a full-time driver in the Truck Series and as a part-timer in Xfinity. His qualifying efforts typically aren’t all that great as well, so he’s viable for our tournament lineups. 

At Pocono he qualified P20 and finished 17^th for 29 fantasy points. Not great, but he also didn’t kill you. He had a much better day at Indianapolis where he started P22 and finished seventh.

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,900)

Matty D is likely the best value play starting outside the top 25, but I will also be playing Parker Retzlaff ($6,600; Starting P26). There's variance here but still a potential top 20 finish. DiBenedetto finished 14th at Indianapolis and was 24th at Pocono.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,200)

In an effort to spice up the value price core plays, we do get to mention Earnhardt who will be driving the 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing. Corey Heim finished 16^th at Pocono in this car and Conor Daly finished 14^th at Indianapolis.

Earnhardt has only appeared in a pair of drafting races in the Xfinity Series this year. So this is somewhat of a gamble, but at the same time, we’re getting him in a good car at a track with less variance than Atlanta and Talladega.

The car does have top 10 upside, but for Earnhardt we’ll need to be mindful of where he qualifies. He’s never really run well here. However, he’s also raced in worse equipment, so this is a nice upgrade. We can’t go all in, but we love the price tag relative to the ride.

Cabo Wabo 250 NASCAR DFS Driver Pool