Ag-Pro 300 DFS Picks & NASCAR Playbook - Talladega, 4/20

The NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series will both run through Talladega this weekend for some superspeedway action around the largest oval track on the schedule. And mixed into the high variance of this electric superspeedway action, we also have ourselves a Dash 4 Cash race. Last weekend at Texas, we saw one of the closest finishes you’ll ever see in a NASCAR race. Sam Mayer beat out Ryan Sieg by 0.002 seconds. Sieg is still chasing that first career win, but for Mayer, he gets Jr. Motorsports on the board with their first win of the season, nearly two months after Daytona. Mayer locks himself into the playoffs as Sieg still chases that first win. The good news for both drivers is that they’re locked into the Dash 4 Cash event this weekend along with Justin Allgaier and A.J. Allmendinger. Mix in the chaos of Talladega with the usual nonsense of the NASCAR Xfinity Series and we’re looking at an eventful race overall. Let’s look at the NASCAR DFS lineup picks and strategies for the Ag-Pro 300!

Ag-Pro 300 NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks

Talladega Superspeedway is Daytona on a little bit of steroids. It’s slightly larger and wider but delivers some drafting action and big wrecks all the same. Can it be frustrating at times for DFS? Sure. Matt Selz and I always advise people to play light and to not check their DFS contests until the very end of the race. On top of that, this race only has 113 laps which means we probably only have ~70 dominator points when we account for some caution laps. And the fastest laps are typically distributed evenly throughout the field. 

We do not have practice this weekend. As has been the case in recent years on superspeedways, NASCAR has done away with practice so teams don’t waste money in the event a car is wrecked in a meaningless practice session. But the thought process when building lineups remains the same. For cash games you’re mostly targeting drivers starting outside the top 30. You can even include some starting between P20-P29. Don’t be concerned with salary and if you’re leaving too much on the table. For tournaments we do need to take some risks. Yes, lean on drivers starting deep in the field but you also need to include some drivers that start further up. It’s almost always a poor decision to play the pole sitter in a drafting race. However, Richard Childress Racing is showing they can be the class of the field in this type of race. And sure enough, both Austin Hill and Jesse Love are on the front row for today’s race.

Top Price Core Plays

Austin Hill ($11,500; Starting P1)

Let me be clear about this because he should be an awful DFS play. He starts on the pole and is very expensive. This translates to him having a very specific path to being in the optimal lineup. At the minimum you really need him to win and lead about 40 laps so he can get 10 dominator points. But even then, that’s only 55 fantasy points on DraftKings and you probably want at least 60 points out of him. He’s only in his third full-time season in the Xfinity Series. He’s won the last three spring Daytona races and he’s won three times at Atlanta. Talladega actually hasn’t been as fruitful for him. In four races here he’s never finished top 10. But I still can’t write him off because we know he’s the best superspeedway driver in this field. I’m probably not playing him at all. But I do understand I’m giving up a lot of win equity with my lineups by not playing him. But he really does need to lead at least half the laps and win to be in the optimal lineup.

A.J. Allmendinger ($11,000; Starting P14)

As much as he may say he hates this style of racing, he’s pretty damn good at it. He was top five in all four races at Daytona in 2021 and 2022, and not to mention he finished 10^th there two months ago. He won at Dega in the fall of 2022 and has a couple other top five finishes on his resume. Kaulig Racing is a strong superspeedway team even if we’ve seen them trail off a bit in recent years. Justin Haley won plenty of times with Kaulig Racing on superspeedways. Jeb Burton, who we’ll get to later in the article, grabbed a win here during his time with Kaulig. Dinger also offers some solid PD but likely isn’t optimal with anything less than a top five finish. We can also look to Justin Allgaier ($10,800; Starting P16) who offers a little savings and starts right behind Allmendinger.

Sheldon Creed ($10,500; Starting P10)

I don’t think I’ve written up Creed too much this year. It seems like every time I mentioned him in previous years he would always wreck or screw himself out of a win somehow. But he’s been solid to start his campaign with Joe Gibbs Racing. He kicked the year off finishing second to his former teammate, Austin Hill, at Daytona and you know that probably kills young Sheldon. But he followed that up with a top five finish at Atlanta, but again Hill got the win. Creed is strong in the draft and should move up. My only concern is whether or not he has enough upside to pay off the price tag. Creed’s logged so many runner-up finishes in drafting races the last two years that he seems due to finally break through and get a win at some point.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Sam Mayer ($9,000; Starting P15)

Mayer starts next to Justin Allgaier for Saturday’s race and probably has similar upside at a cheaper price tag. In nine races between Daytona and Talladega he has just one top 10 finish and that was when he finished second to A.J. Allmendinger in the fall of 2022. We also may have him at slightly higher ownership so it might be a good spot to pivot. Mayer offers PD and also is eligible for the Dash 4 Cash bonus this week. There’s certainly more incentive for him. But the sketchy superspeedway history should rightly give us some pause. If you want to really roll the dice, Parker Kligerman ($8,800; Starting P3) is an option who will be very contrarian. He loves superspeedway racing, specifically at Talladega. But if you go that route, you probably shouldn’t play anyone else in the top 10.

Brandon Jones ($8,000; Starting P23)

I don’t love the play, but I feel obligated to mention him. The price is fine and he has position differential on his side. In a similar situation in February, he did start P22 at Daytona and finished ninth for 48.45 fantasy points on DraftKings. And he was the same price tag for that race as he is for Saturday’s action. A similar performance would be great, but we don’t typically associate Jones with being a good superspeedway racer. But even the worst plays can come through in these races if they keep the car clean. He does have a pair of top five finishes here in his last six races and he typically starts much higher. I’m okay playing him and will have some exposure but this isn’t a play to be super heavy on.

Ryan Sieg ($7,600; Starting P24)

Very nice price tag on Sieg for this race and he offers position differential. Plus, he has the Dash 4 Cash incentive. Will he be popular? Yeah, probably. He’s one of the strongest drafters in the field. Sieg disappointed last spring, but still he finished 22^nd after starting P31 and he led 18 laps so it wasn’t all for nothing. He does have four top five finishes in his last six races at Dega. Daytona and Atlanta didn’t go his way earlier this year, but he’s affordable and starts outside the top 20. He’s likely optimal with a top 10 finish.

Value Price Core Plays

This is where Cash game lineups should be built and I would add Ryan Sieg to those builds as well. Truthfully, you could just live in the value tier as most of them are starting deep in the field. There are several drivers in play in this tier so just because I’m only expanding on a few, doesn’t mean I’m only playing the following drivers.

Jordan Anderson Racing

For the record, this collection of drivers includes Parker Retzlaff ($7,500; Starting P21), Jeb Burton ($7,100; Starting P35), and Jordan Anderson ($6,700; Starting P32). My favorite tournament play might be Retzlaff. He starts much higher than the other two and likely won’t have the ownership his teammates see. Retzlaff has shown that he’s more than just a short track specialist. He grabbed a pair of top five finishes to start the year at Daytona and Atlanta. Even last year he was top 10 at the two Daytona races and last spring’s Talladega race. By all means, he’s shown he can move up and finish well. Burton is using his PWP (previous winner provision) to get into this race and he starts very deep in the field as does Anderson. Burton has won here twice including last year’s race when Anderson finished fourth.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,500; Starting P34)

Another value PD play we’re looking at because there are simply so many in this tier. We’ve only seen him run one race this year, but he did grab a top 10 at Atlanta and he finished 11^th at Daytona before the playoffs last year. He’s back with Sam Hunt Racing for this race which is pretty fortunate because it’s better than the team he was with last year. He almost won this race two years ago with Larry McReynolds as his crew chief but for this particular race he looks to be a safe option in all formats.

Hailie Deegan ($5,700; Starting P31)

I wouldn’t be surprised if Deegan was a bit of a leverage play in this range just given how affordable Jordan Anderson’s team is and where they’re starting. Plus, a lot of people will just stack the back and while Deegan is starting deep in the field, there are still seven drivers you can plug into a lineup that start further back than she does. She also didn’t get off to a great start at Daytona or Atlanta. But in the Truck Series she did grab back-to-back top 10’s at Talladega in 2022 and 2023. And at the end of the day, I think Jason Hamlet summed it up pretty well with this tweet early Saturday morning…

Ryan Ellis ($5,100; Starting P37)

He doesn’t start dead last. That honor goes to Mason Massey ($5,500; Starting P38). However, Ellis is becoming one of my favorite value plays on a weekly basis so long as he’s starting outside the top 30. Because he’s probably top 27 most weeks and I’ll gladly eat up the cheap PD. In this race last year, he started P36 and finished 11^th and he pulled off the exact same feat at Daytona two months ago. He should be in everyone’s cash lineup if you’re stacking the back and he’ll make a handful of my Tournament lineups as well.

NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks: Ag-Pro 300