Xfinity 500 Best Bets 2024: NASCAR Picks & Martinsville Speedway Predictions
It’s the penultimate race of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season at Martinsville. The Xfinity 500 is the last chance for drivers to clinch a spot in the Championship Four at Phoenix next weekend. It’s also a shot to win one of the best trophies in sports, a grandfather clock.
But how does Martinsville stack up in the short track realm for Xfinity 500 best bets? How are betting trends at Martinsville? Do the playoffs really play a role in winners and race finishes in the Xfinity 500? What tracks are similar to Martinsville?
All that, NASCAR picks regarding winner predictions and Xfinity 500 predictions for 2024 below!
Xfinity 500 Betting Trends
Martinsville, known as The Paperclip thanks to its shape, is a half-mile, flat short track in Virginia. It doesn’t really fit with any other short track on the NASCAR schedule as Bristol is highly banked while Richmond is a different shape and not totally flat.
However, if we want similar races to view when making Xfinity 500 predictions for 2024, we can look at New Hampshire, Martinsville, and Gateway as a nice little trio of comparison. While we may think that because it’s a short track, winners come from the front of the pack, that’s not really been the case recently.
Over the last 6 races at Martinsville, only once has the winner started inside the top-10. Yep, you read that right. Five of 6 winners have started P11 to P20 and that includes 4 straight. In terms of props for Xfinity 500 best bets, finishing in the top-10 can happen from a variety of starting spots too.
Again, going against typical thoughts about short track racing. In the last 5 races here, 40% of top-10 finishers have started outside the top-12 and as far back as 31st in the field. Thanks to good long run speed and pit strategy drivers can move up here and pass better than short tracks on the schedule.
Xfinity 500 Best Bets: Winner Predictions
Denny Hamlin +500 (FanDuel)
Hamlin is an interesting case here. He’s led a boat load of laps in previous races with the most led on average in the last 5 Martinsville races. That said, his best finishes in that span have been P6, P4, and P3.
He’s been just as solid at similar tracks since 2022 with 7 top-6 finishes in the 11-race span. While none are a win, he’s needing a win to advance to the Championship race next week and that solid of runs leads to a win eventually.
Ryan Blaney +550 (BetMGM)
Unlike Hamlin, Blaney has a win here — this race last year — and all 5 finishes are P7 or better. When you add in Blaney having one of the best average running positions, driver rating, laps led totals, and fastest laps totals, he’s a major threat.
One last thing that makes him a big threat is the desperation he has to win and make the Championship Four to defend his title from a year ago.
William Byron +1000 (FanDuel)
Byron has been hit-and-miss here with 2 wins but only 3 top-10s in the last 5 races. Though one of those wins was last year’s Xfinity 500. So, when he shows up with speed it’s a great day for Byron, but if he doesn’t have the speed, it can be a long day for the 24-team.
He does need to have a good day to lock into the Championship Four however as he’s only 7 points over the cutoff coming into Sunday.
Chase Elliott +850 (FanDuel)
Elliott is in a do-or-die situation in terms of making the championship as he’s 43 points below the cutoff coming into Sunday. Elliott has multiple wins at Martinsville earlier in his Cup career however, he’s not yet won in the Next Gen era here. His runs, like this season, have been consistent but not elite with most finishes being 10-17.
That being said, this Spring he finished P3 and is coming in after having his fastest car of the season last weekend. Given the non-dominant year he’s had I’d have liked to have seen a bit longer odds but it is Hendrick at Martinsville and that’s usually a winning combination.
Christopher Bell +1300 (FanDuel)
Bell won this race 2 years ago after starting P20 and leading 150 laps. His other runs at Martinsville have been otherwise un-noteworthy.
That being said though, when you add in the races at New Hampshire and his dominance there as a similar track, it’s harder to look past Bell this weekend. Bell isn’t as points desperate as others in the playoffs, but the win would still mean he’d be sure to eliminate 4 other playoff drivers for sure.
Chase Briscoe +2800 (FanDuel)
Briscoe has been a strong contender at Martinsville in the Next Gen era racking up 5-straight top-10 finishes. He’s one of only 3 drivers in the field with that such success at the Virginia short track with the others being Blaney and Joey Logano who are both shorter odds.
Briscoe also ranks in the top-5 in the field in average finish, fastest laps, driver rating, and run position. Basically, he’s a top 4-5 driver in the field we’re getting at 25-1 odds. That’s pretty nice for Xfinity 500 best bets.
Martinsville Speedway Predictions 2024 — Long Shot Winners
Bubba Wallace +3400 (FanDuel)
This has been arguably Wallace’s best short track in the Next Gen era with 5 finishes of P11 or better. This Spring he nabbed a P4 run after starting P2 and posting a 99.3% top-15 rate.
While Wallace isn’t in the playoffs, his winning could help his teammate, Tyler Reddick, by limiting who else gets into the Championship Four. He’ll need a heck of a run, similar to that in Spring, but will also need more breaks to go his way in terms of pit strategy. He did win here in the Truck series as well.
Ryan Preece 100-1 (BetMGM)
Preece is a short tracker by nature. That’s shown well here with a P9 here in the Spring race. Preece has also shown well at New Hampshire and moved up well there in the Summer race going from P31 to P11.
Granted, those aren’t wins nor top-5s but the ability he’s shown in lower divisions on short tracks and shouts of top-10 runs, Preece could break through for a win as he’s still looking to solidify a ride, beyond rumors, for 2025.
NASCAR Picks: Xfinity 500 Props — Martinsville Speedway
Ryan Blaney Top-5 Finish -112 (BetRivers)
Over the last 5 races here, Blaney’s posted an average finish of 4.0 with the worst finish being P7. He’s won, but also posted 4 top-5 finishes giving him an 80% hit rate on this prop.
When you add in the desperation for a good run to keep his championship hopes alive, it’s quite nice we’re getting value on this prop for Xfinity 500 best bets at one of Blaney’s best tracks.
Joey Logano Top-5 Finish +240 (Caesars)
Like Blaney above him, Logano has averaged a better than 5.0 finish in the last 5 races here. Granted there’s not a ton to race for for him as he’s locked in to the title race and likely also going to try and help his teammate make it.
However, we can’t ignore the strength he’s shown at Martinsville. If you’re more comfortable with a top-10 prop you can get him at -134 currently at BetRivers. Either way, the odds and value are nice for a driver who’s been the second-best driver in the field here in the Next Gen era.
Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish +120 (Caesars)
Briscoe is one of 3 drivers in the field to post 5 straight top-10 finishes at Martinsville and posting an average finish of better than 8.0.
It’s too hard to pass up these odds for a driver who’s hit it 100% of the time even though he’s not in the playoffs any longer. Briscoe has posted 7 top-10s in 11 similar races too which just adds to his ability to hit this prop.
Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +130 (FanDuel)
Wallace has posted 4 straight P11 or better finishes at Martinsville including a P4 finish this Spring. The Toyotas have historically always run well at short tracks including The Paperclip which strengthens his case too.
The implied chances of this +130 line are 43.4%, which gives us big value compared to the 60% success rate and 80% rate of hitting P11 or better.
Chris Buescher Top-10 Finish +200 (Caesars)
Buescher finished P8 in this race last year and has nabbed 4 P15 or better finishes in the 5 Next Gen races here.
When we look at similar races to Martinsville, Buescher has 7 straight top-15 finishes in this short, tight, flat, racing style. That’s a pretty good track record for a guy giving us 2-1 returns for finishing in the top-quarter of the field.
Ryan Preece Top-10 Finish +300 (DraftKings)
Preece is known as a short track racer and that bore out with a P9 finish here in the Spring. Two years ago he was on the pole and led 135 laps before dropping back.
Preece also ran P11 at New Hampshire in the summer. His driving style and ability at short tracks make him a threat for a top-10 on Sunday.
Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +900 (BetMGM)
Who doesn’t like long shot props? Jones has yet to finish in the top-10 in the Next Gen car at Martinsville, but he’s come close. There are 2 P13 or better finishes to his credit including a P12 here earlier this year.
Jones also nabbed a P13 at New Hampshire after starting P32. If he starts a bit closer to the front on Sunday, he’s got a shot to nab a P10 and hit a nice return for our Xfinity 500 best bets.