The South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway starts the Round of 8 in the NASCAR playoffs. The winner of this race, if it’s a playoff driver, will clinch a spot to run for the championship at Phoenix in 4 races time. 

 

 

 

What can we expect for South Point 400 Best Bets after a chaotic Roval weekend last weekend? What are the NASCAR picks and betting strategies we can use at Vegas? Las Vegas Motor Speedway has some strong trends, can we use those to predict the winner and prop bets we want to bet? 

All of that and South Point 400 predictions for 2024 in Las Vegas, the betting capital of the U.S.

South Point 400 Betting Trends & Strategy

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is known as one of the “standard” 1.5-mile tracks on the NASCAR schedule. However, that’s not quite true. The steepness of the banking is some of the highest among the intermediate tracks. It’s also one of the tracks where track position is king. 

Since the start of 2020 all but one winner has started outside the top-10 of the grid (P13). The last 4 winners here have started P5 or better. That being said, moving into the top-10 can be done with regularity here as in the last 5 races at LVMS, 46% of the top-10 finishers have started from P13-P37. 

This is still a track where tire issues are a problem and lead to wrecks or unscheduled pit stops. Gaining spots on track basically relies on the restarts and ability to grab chunks of spots at a time when the field is regathered. 

For betting strategies on South Point 400 Best Bets, we’ll want to focus on drivers starting close to the front and the drivers with the best long run speeds at practice. For prop betting strategy we’ll be looking at the drivers who’ve shown they can move up well here and have had good speed at similar tracks this year like Kansas, Charlotte, Texas, and Michigan.

 

 

 

South Point 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson +300 (DraftKings)

We don’t typically like to bet bets with odds this short. However, Larson is a different animal this week. Outside of the race where he wrecked while running up front, he’s finished either P2 or P1 in the other 4 races here since the start of 2022. Two wins and two runners-up are hard to beat. Hence the short line. 

Then there’s the fact that Larson has 3 wins in the last 7 similar races dating back to the South Point 400 last year. No one else has more than 1. I’d still bet this one lightly though because the other 4 races had him finish P21 or worse. Sometimes he tries too hard and puts it in the wall and ruins his and your day.

William Byron +850 (FanDuel)

If we’re looking for a more consistent driver at these tracks in the last year for South Point 400 Best Bets, it’s hard to look past Byron. He’s posted the most top-5s, top-10s, and best average finish in that span. 

While there’s no wins to show for it, being that close to the front that often has to result in wins at some point. He’d love nothing more than to lock his way into the Championship 4 on his first try and take all of the worry out of the rest of the round.

Tyler Reddick +950 (FanDuel)

It was a hurried last several laps at the Roval last week for Reddick to try and keep his playoff hopes alive. It worked, and now comes a track where he came desperately close to winning at in March. Over the last 5 races at Vegas, Reddick is tied for the 3rd best average finish (7.6) and for most top-10s (4). 

When you add in that Reddick has the 3rd best average finish and most top-5s at 1.5-mile tracks over the last year as well. Well, now we’re getting to a solid bet in Reddick to win. Ambushing the field in the Round of 8 could be the best move for the regular season champ to make the championship race.

 

 

 

Denny Hamlin +1000 (FanDuel)

There is a lot to talk about with Hamlin right now. We’ll leave the 23XI-FRM lawsuit against NASCAR alone and simply focus on his on-track reasons for South Point 400 predictions in 2024, though. Hamlin has finished P11 or better in 4 straight races here including a P8 here in March. 

On top of that he’s posted 6 top-10s in the 7 similar races dating back to this race last year. So he’s always in a winning position even if he’s not won in that span. Getting a win this week would shift the focus for him back on the track and back to him hunting down his first NASCAR title.

Joey Logano +1600 (Caesars)

Logano won this race two years ago on the way to his second NASCAR Cup championship. He’s mentioned before that locking in early and getting the benefit of two extra weeks to prep the Phoenix car was a huge advantage. 

Expect him and his team to want to take advantage of being back in the playoffs after Alex Bowman’s DQ last week and get a jump on the field with the win. Logano seems to be great lurking in a winning position without being dominant in the intermediate races, that’s likely to be the case once more Sunday before he comes through in the closing laps to snatch the win.

Ross Chastain +2000 (FanDuel)

Chastain was dominant at Kansas a few weeks ago en route to a win there. He’s also posted the best average finish in the field (5.2) over the last 5 races at Vegas. He should be a threat all day on Sunday if the intermediate setup holds true once more for Chastain. 

The 1-car is also in a situation that others aren’t… he’s the only car from his team in the Round of 8. That means he should be getting all of the attention at Trackhouse to make the car the best it possibly can be. We’ll take that extra attention on a track he’s already been great at.

 

 

 

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners

Noah Gragson 100-1 (BetMGM)

Everyone loves a long shot bet in Vegas, right? Gragson is the hometown kid who’s been on a bit of a momentum kick of late. He finished P6 in this race last year and was running well here this Spring but didn’t finish the race well. 

Gragson will certainly need a break or two to win and come through for our South Point 400 Best Bets, but if he comes with the same speed as last Fall, he could be competitive late.

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: South Point 400 Props - Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Ross Chastain Top-5 Finish +250 (FanDuel)

Really? We’re getting this good of a line on this Chastain bet? I had to do a double take when I saw it. Why? Well, when we look at the last 5 Vegas races, Chastain averages a 5.2 finish with 4 top-5s. The only other driver to have 4 top-5s? Larson who’s going off at -200 for this same prop. 

I’ll gladly take a 4.5x better return for a driver with a better history here. If you do want to look at a top-10 prop instead, Chastain is still just -130 for that compared to Larson between -500 and -1300. Take the value and don’t look back.

Martin Truex Jr. Top-10 Finish -139 (BetRivers)

The only driver in the field with 5-straight top-10 finishes at Vegas. Martin Truex Jr. might only have 4 races left in his NASCAR career, that doesn’t change his desire to be competitive. We saw the speed show up in Kansas a few weeks ago with a P3 finish. 

When we couple that with his run of strong finishes at Vegas, this bet makes sense especially with how well Toyotas run in the intermediate package.

 

 

 

Kyle Busch Top-10 Finish -130 (BetMGM)

Even with the P26 finish here in March, Busch’s average finish here in the last 5 races is 10.0. The 8-car also has 4 top-10s in the 7 similar races dating back to this race last year. Busch loves to show up for his hometown fans and family and this Sunday will likely be no different as he keeps his strong second half run alive. I’ll gladly lock him into my South Point 400 Best Bets.

Ryan Blaney Top-5 Finish +180 (FanDuel)

This is perhaps the riskiest prop bet of the week, despite Chastain’s odds being longer. He’s been a bit hit-and-miss both at Vegas and 1.5-mile tracks but, there’s a trend in our favor. Firstly, in the last 2 races here, Blaney has finished P6 and P3 respectively. 

Secondly, over the last 7 similar races he’s nabbed a P6 or better thrice. These odds imply a 35.7% chance he finishes top-5, 3-in-7 is a 42% rate of accomplishment. So, while it’s a bit of a stretch, there’s still a bit of value.