Quaker State 400 Best Bets 2024: NASCAR Picks & Atlanta Predictions
The Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway is Sunday to kick off the NASCAR Playoffs. After seeing the great racing down the stretch, we got a shot at another great race at Atlanta. This isn’t like the Atlanta of old though, it races like a plate track like a smaller Daytona or Talladega.
What is the betting strategy for the Quaker State 400? Do the NASCAR Playoffs change anything? What are the Quaker State 400 best bets we can wager on for Sunday? All that plus NASCAR picks and Atlanta predictions for 2024’s Cup Series race at Atlanta on Sunday.
Atlanta Motor Speedway Betting Trends & Strategy
NASCAR picks for Atlanta, much like the racing here and at plate tracks, can be chaotic. That being said, there is a method to the madness that can see us having success. In order to hit Quaker State 400 best bets on Sunday we’re looking at a few things. The most important thing is history at the redone Atlanta, since 2022, and that includes looking at Loop Data stats.
Just below that in importance is studying how the other plate races since 2022 have gone as well. We’re talking Daytona and Talladega races in this case. While all three do use the plate package, it’s notable to realize they are different layouts and banking and distance and that changes how drivers perform across them.
Drivers that are great across all three are highest on the betting picks, however it also means they have the favorite odds in winner and prop bets. So, finding drivers who a good at Atlanta and decent elsewhere are where we’re really going to find value lines for Sunday.
The Quaker State 400 is also one of those races in which we want to spread our bets around and not put too much into any one bet. It’s still a plate race and just because a driver has historically done well, doesn’t mean they’re any more likely to avoid a big one than a driver who’s not been great.
Quaker State 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions
Ryan Blaney +1200 (FanDuel)
Blaney has the best average driver rating, average running position, and average finish in the field at plate tracks since 2022. He also has the most top-5s and top-10s while finishing P2 thrice in that span. That includes a P2 here in February. This is a great chance for Blaney to get his playoffs off to a quick start and a great chance for us to get value on a favorite.
Kyle Busch +1200 (FanDuel)
The RCR cars have been on fire of late. That includes Busch being a push away from a win at Daytona two weeks ago. Busch has sneakily been one of the better plate racers since the start of the 2022 season. Really? Yep, a win, the second-most top-5s, tied for most top-10s, second-best average finish, and fourth-best average running position. So, with that history and the speed in the RCR cars currently, it’s not a bad time to bet Busch to get his first win of the year and steal a win from the playoff field.
William Byron +1400 (BetMGM)
Byron has won twice at the new Atlanta layout. He’s also finished P8 or better in 6-of-the-last-8 plate races. That kind of consistency mixed with the typical speed that Hendrick brings in the plate package should be a recipe for success for Byron. The only risk here with Byron is that he’s either won or finished in the mid-teens at Atlanta so a bit of all or nothing.
Daniel Suarez +2200 (BetMGM)
This track has been a magical place for Suarez since the redesign. Suarez has finished P4, P6, P2, and P1 in 4-of-the-5 races on the redesign. He’s further down the odds list simply because of the iffy rest of his plate history but given how different each of the plate tracks are, we’ll easily ride his success at Atlanta in our Quaker State 400 best bets to a nice return with this line.
Austin Cindric +2200 (FanDuel)
Cindric did win the Daytona 500 a few years ago. However, that’s not the only reason he’s in this piece. Over the last 16 plate races Cindric has the 5th best average driver rating and average finish. So, while he’s not necessarily won that often, Cindric’s 4 top-5s in that span are tied for third-best and show he’s consistently a threat. This may also be his best shot to clinch a spot in the Round of 12 and surprise people.
Bubba Wallace +2600 (FanDuel)
It’s long been the case that he’s one of the best plate racers in the Cup Series. That’s really come to the fore this year as he’s posted 3 P6 or better finishes in 4 plate races. Just because he missed out on the playoffs doesn’t mean that he’s out of contention for this race. In fact, this race comes at a great time in which 23XI are surging with consistent speed.
Atlanta Motor Speedway Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners
Todd Gilliland +3700 (FanDuel)
Gillaland led the most laps in the race here earlier this year. Following that showing, he’s posted some of the best in-race numbers in the field. For example, the driver of the 38-car has the fourth-best driver rating and third-best average running position in the 4 plate races this year. Front Row has been favoring Gilliland in terms of setup and speed the second-half of the year and that should be the case again on Sunday.
Harrison Burton +6000 (BetMGM)
Why can’t he do it again? He locked his way into this spot by winning two races ago at Daytona and looked good doing it. He’s also posted three straight P11 or better finishes in this discipline. That’s the consistency we look for with long shots for Atlanta predictions in 2024 and guys looking to make a statement, again.
NASCAR Picks: Quaker State 400 Props - Atlanta Motor Speedway
Daniel Suarez Top-5 Finish +300 (BetMGM)
Getting a little different with this one in order to increase the return. Suarez loves the new Atlanta layout. There have been 5 races on the new layout and Suarez has finished P4, P6, P2, and P1 in 4 of them. While the rest of his plate history isn’t as robust, his runs at Atlanta give us value here with Quaker State 400 best bets. You can bet him at even money at BetMGM for a Top-10 finish which also makes sense.
Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +115 (FanDuel)
In the 4 plate races so far this year, Wallace has finished P5 or P6 in 3 of them. When we look at P12 or better finishes, given how many side-by-side finishes there are at plate tracks, over the last 16 such races, he’s pulled that off 6 times. This year’s runs are more than enough to make this line a value play. He has +200 boosted odds at Caesars for this same bet as well.
Todd Gilliland Top-10 Finish +240 (Caesars)
As mentioned above, he led the most laps here in the first race and then showed front row speed, excuse the pun, at Daytona. We’re more so rolling with his recent showings than history. Like was stated above the average running position is 4th best this year at these tracks and that should be enough to keep him in or around the top-10 much of the day.
Harrison Burton Top-10 Finish +240 (FanDuel)
Even before the surprise win at Daytona two weeks ago Burton was running well at these tracks. Burton is coming in with three-straight P11 or better finishes. He started P12 at the Daytona 500 but wrecked out after 5 laps. However, when we look at his top-10 totals in the last 16 similar races we see he’s done it 25% of the time, or basically the implied odds of this line.
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