We’re headed to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400, and if history tells us anything, this 1.5-mile track delivers high-speed action, plenty of lead changes, and a few surprises along the way. This race separates the contenders from the pretenders, and we’ve got the data to help you pick a winner.

So, who’s got the best shot at rolling the dice and cashing in this weekend? Let’s dive into our best bets, with a mix of favorites, mid-tier value plays, and longshots who just might shock the field.

 

 

 

Pennzoil 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kyle Larson owns Las Vegas. Over the last six races here, he's posted two wins, four top-fives, and has led a ridiculous 405 laps. When it comes to these intermediate tracks, Larson is a certified problem for the competition. His 8.7 average finish at LVMS in that span speaks for itself. If you’re looking for a rock-solid pick, Larson’s your guy.

William Byron (+750 Caesars Sportsbook)

Byron has quietly turned into a monster at Las Vegas. In his last six races here, he’s grabbed one win, three top-fives, and five top-10s, averaging a 6.7 finish. Oh, and he’s led 201 laps in that span. If you’re not putting him in your betting mix, you might be playing this one wrong.

 

 

 

Pennzoil 400 Mid-Range Picks

Mid-Tier Value Plays

Joey Logano (+1500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Logano’s résumé at Las Vegas is rock solid: four wins, eight top-fives, and 14 top-10s in 23 starts. That’s an average finish of 9.5, which is elite territory at this track. He knows how to navigate Vegas better than a high-roller at the craps table, and at +1500, this is one of the best values on the board.

Kyle Busch (+1800 BetMGM)

This is a hometown race for Busch, and you know he’s going to be locked in. In 27 career races at Las Vegas, Rowdy has one win, 12 top-fives, and 15 top-10s, averaging an 11.3 finish. He hasn’t been dominant here, but he knows his way around this track and can still pull off a big win.
 

 

 

Pennzoil 400 Long Shot Picks

Ross Chastain (+2400 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chastain is way too good at this track to be sitting at +2400. Over the last six races here, he’s got four top-fives, five top-10s, and an insane 5.5 average finish. That’s better than Larson! If you want a longshot with real winning potential, Chastain is your guy.

Alex Bowman (+2800 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Bowman has been sneaky good at Las Vegas. Since 2022, he’s picked up one win, three top-fives, and three top-10s in just five starts here. That’s a 12.4 average finish at a track where underdogs can break through. If you want a deep value pick with upside, Bowman might just make you some money.
 

 

 

Best NASCAR Props for the Pennzoil 400

Alex Bowman – Top 10 Finish (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bowman has been steady at Las Vegas, making this even-money bet a solid play. In his last five races here, he has one win, three top-fives, and three top-10s with a 12.4 average finish. He’s shown he can run near the front, and barring trouble, a top-10 finish is well within reach.

Ross Chastain – Top 5 Finish (+310 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chastain has been a force at Las Vegas, making this +310 bet great value. Over his last six races, he has four top-fives, five top-10s, and an impressive 5.5 average finish. With his strong history at this track, he’s a serious contender for another top-five finish.
 

 

 

Pennzoil 400 Final Thoughts

Las Vegas always delivers an unpredictable race, but these picks are backed by real track history, not just vibes. Larson and Byron feel like the safest plays, but Logano and Chastain offer serious value at their odds.

Who are you rolling with this weekend? Let’s cash some tickets.