The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix Raceway for the Shriners Children’s 500. It’s the fourth race of the 2024 NASCAR schedule and the first one in the short track package. Phoenix always provides a unique racing experience, especially on restarts with the wide dogleg part of the track. We’ll talk about how that changes betting strategy for Phoenix, racing trends at Phoenix, and approach to the race. As always, we’ll give you winner predictions and prop bets for the Shriners Children’s 500 on Sunday.

Just like the temps can be in Phoenix, we’ve been running hot in recent races with our picks. Here are the winning picks from Atlanta and Las Vegas…

Shriners Children’s 500 Betting Strategy

Phoenix is a 1-mile, flat-ish, track that is perhaps the most unique layout among the “ovals” on the schedule. The dogleg portion of the track allows for wild restarts and a wide berth for passing under green flag racing. The Turn 1 and Turn 2 complex has multiple lines to go on while Turns 3 & 4 are more banked, which allows for more speed to be carried. While the restarts are crazy, track position is king here, perhaps even more than Las Vegas a week ago. Each of the last seven winners here have started inside the top eight in the starting grid with three of those coming from the pole. Moving up here is possible in terms of finishing top 10 as four-to-six drivers per race finish top 10 having started outside the top 12. So for prop bets we’re looking for drivers with long run speed at practice but for winners we’re looking for drivers starting nearer to the front.

All odds posted are from DraftKings unless otherwise noted.

 

Winner Predictions For NASCAR Shriners Children’s 500

Kyle Larson +750

He’s been quick just about everywhere so far this year. Larson has also shown to be fast at Phoenix, don’t forget he won his title here. Regardless of practice speed, Larson has started inside the top seven in each of the NextGen races here and has finished P9, P4, and P3 respectively in the last three.

Joey Logano +800 (BetMGM)

He ran the fastest single-lap speed in practice and was top-three in multiple long-run metrics at practice. He’s posted three top 11 finishes here in the NextGen car including winning his second Cup title here two years ago. The downside with Logano this year has been the wrecking out and not bringing the speed to race day. At some point that trend will end and at a short track where it’s tougher to pass, this could be the race where the speed bares a win.

Ryan Blaney +850

Blaney has three straight runner-up finishes and a P4 in the NextGen car here. Blaney, like Larson, has also been fast everywhere we’ve run so far this year. Fords have been particularly strong at Phoenix and Blaney has been the poster boy for that as he’s started anywhere from P1 to P15 and still managed the finishes he has.

Ross Chastain +850

Did everyone forget that Chastain won the Championship race here last fall? He didn’t win the title, just the race, but he was still the first non-championship driver to win the finale in NASCAR playoff history. That only should count for something. Now add in that he was very quick at practice on the long-run and he looks to have another car this week that can contend for a win.

Bubba Wallace +2200

Wallace has been figuring this track out throughout his career. In the last four races here, he’s improved his finishes from P22 to P10. The speed he’s shown on track on Friday should be enough to contend on Sunday come race day. Toyotas haven’t typically done well at Phoenix but Wallace’s past improvements give hope that they’re getting better.

Chase Briscoe +5500

All Briscoe does is show up at Phoenix. His first, and only, win in the Cup series came at Phoenix and since he’s put up P4 and P7 finishes as well. Yes, he’s a long shot and for good reason, but he’s a long shot with a very good history there and top 10 speed in practice. That’s worth a look even if it’s a small part of a unit.

 

NASCAR Best Prop Bets - Shriners Children’s 500

Christopher Bell Top 5 Finish +110 (BetMGM)

Bell has yet to fully realize his speed at Phoenix in terms of finish position. His best finish in the Next Gen car is a P6. That being said he has started P5 or better twice and has the speed to start up there again. If he can hold the position and bring his practice speed to bear, he should be able to nab his first top-five finish.

Tyler Reddick Top 5 Finish +175 (BetMGM)

When you look at Reddick’s average finish here it’s a tad rough, however when we parse it, it’s in our favor. In the two spring races at Phoenix in the NextGen car, Reddick has finished P3 in both. He’s also posted top-five speeds in practice this week as well which makes this bet a nice return on something he’s done twice in two chances before.

Josh Berry Top 10 Finish +300 (BetMGM)

Berry has run one race here in the new car and finished P10 in the 9-car as Chase Elliott’s replacement. Berry cut his teeth on short tracks like Phoenix and is now in the 4-car for SHR which was Kevin Harvick’s former car. That team knows how to setup a car for top 10’s at Phoenix and if they give him the setup and he keeps it clean, this has a nice shot to hit.

Chase Elliott Top 5 Finish +300 (BetMGM)

This is a risky one based on practice speed, or lack thereof to be honest. We’re going off of track history for Elliott. Since 2020, if we exclude the Championship race he wrecked out of, Elliott has an average finish of 5.8 here in six races. The 9-car team has a lot of work to do to find speed in the race but it’s very nice return on this bet if they find it is worth it to give a shot.

Chase Briscoe Top 10 Finish +200

As stated above, all Briscoe does here is finish top 10. So getting 2-1 return on a driver who’s finished top 10 thrice in four races and showed top 10 long run speed at practice is too hard to turn down.

Ryan Preece Top 10 Finish +450 (BetMGM)

Preece is a short track racer who specializes in flat tracks as well. In the two races he ran here in 2022 at Phoenix he ran P12 and P14. The speed is top 15 this weekend rather than top-10, but if he catches some breaks he can come home P10 on Sunday.