Pocono Raceway, or The Tricky Triangle, is hosting this weekend’s Great American Getaway 400. The triangular racetrack is a unique one on the NASCAR schedule. That uniqueness is fun for race funs but can be tricky for NASCAR bettors.

 

 

 

What are the similar tracks to Pocono? What are the race trends we’re looking at for betting the Great American Getaway 400? Who are predicted winners we’re betting for Sunday’s race? Which prop bets are our favorites? All that and more in my NASCAR predictions & Pocono best bets for this Sunday's Great American Getaway 400.

Pocono Raceway Betting Trends & Strategy

At 2.5 miles a lap, Pocono is the longest, non-drafting, non-road-course track in NASCAR. The three corners on the track are all pretty flat, though different in banking and sharpness. Those corners all represent an homage to different tracks.

This kind of layout can be tricky for setups, however, for comparisons, there’s a pretty solid group of tracks to rely on. This is an all-out horsepower track much like the Indy Oval, Michigan and Auto Club. Those along with recent races at Pocono can give us a several race sample to rely on for betting.

Pocono is also a track where winners can come from decently far back in the starting grid, if the speed and strategy is there. Four times in the last 10 races here the winners have come from P13 to P28 in the grid. The other six races have seen winners start P2, P3, P4, P8 and P9 (twice). Over the last two races here, roughly half of the top-10 finishers have started outside the top-12 in the grid showing moving up is possible.

As long as the Goodyear tires hold up, the cautions here will be less frequent than at other intermediate tracks, which will make gas strategy important.

 

 

 

NASCAR Great American Getaway 400 Winner Predictions & Picks

Denny Hamlin +500 (FanDuel)

This has been Hamlin’s playground in his career. He’s won here several times including the last two years, though the 2022 win was nullified. Hamlin has been easily the best driver at comparable tracks as well with a 2.8 average finish over the 5-race span. There’s a reason he’s the race favorite and at this point in the year, favorites tend to hold serve.

Christopher Bell +900 (FanDuel)

Bell is coming off of back-to-back P6 finishes at Pocono. He’s now pairing that history with very consistent race-winning speed this year. That’s enough to make him a driver we’re definitely looking at for the win this weekend especially when knowing our love for Toyotas this weekend as well.

Tyler Reddick +1000 (FanDuel)

Just like Bell, we’re loving the back-to-back top-fives at Pocono. We’re also loving the frustration he’s showing with finishing in the top-3 but not winning. That kind of frustration of not winning can really drive a strong drive from a racer of Reddick’s ilk as well. The third thing in his column is that he’s in a Toyota for 23XI which has consistently been one of the best setup cars in the field all season.

Ty Gibbs +1300 (FanDuel)

This is mainly based on his three P11 or better finishes in the similar races to Pocono in his time in the Cup series. That includes a P5 finish at Pocono last year. When we factor in his solid runs at Pocono at lower series, Gibbs has a lot going in his favor. The other thing in his favor? He is the longest odds of any of the JGR Toyotas which gives us value for the same equipment.

 

 

 

Ryan Blaney +1600 (FanDuel)

It’s been more bad luck than poor speed that’s cost Blaney at tracks like this. In fact, he’s won at Pocono before, the last win for Wood Brothers, and has threatened for top-fives a few times here. While Fords have been on the back foot a bit in terms of speed at similar tracks, Blaney has arguably been the fastest car of the group. If that speed shows up again, and he can avoid the bad luck, there is a nice return here for a driver with a previous trip to victory lane at Pocono.

Chris Buescher +3100 (FanDuel)

Buescher is a bit of a long shot this week. However, there are reasons here. Above we talked about Michigan being a similar track, Buescher won there last year. Buescher also needs a win to lock into the playoffs for this year. While Pocono has been a tougher track for him to crack, Keselowski has cracked it before and should help Buescher with setting up his car to win, just like at Michigan.

Erik Jones 200-1 (BetMGM)

Jones has often been forgotten this year, and for partially good reason, however, we’re going to shine some light on him this week. Jones’ track history at Pocono has been very good regardless of car, manufacturer, or team he’s shown up with. 

Now we have Legacy Motor Club repping Toyota, a manufacturer that’s been strong here, and Jones pairing that strength with being a top-10 driver half of the last 10 races in Pennsylvania. He’ll need a break or two to go his way, but this is certainly a track that’s ripe for Jones to pull off a surprising win.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Bets: Great American Getaway 400 From Pocono Raceway

Tyler Reddick Top-5 Finish +145 (FanDuel)

Reddick has been strong regardless of track type the last two months basically. He’s also been frustrated about only getting top-3s in the last few races. That level of consistency is good to see, as well as back-to-back top-fives at Pocono too. His track history and recent form makes this a tough prop not to target.

Ty Gibbs Top-5 Finish +175 (Caesars)

The track record in the similar races and at Pocono aren’t necessarily the strongest for this bet, but the speed has been there for him to be a threat for a top-five quite a lot this year. Gibbs has a good history here in lower series as well. The JGR Toyota contingent has been strong here over the last few years, including with the Next Gen car, and that includes Gibbs locking down a top-five here last year after starting P11.

Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +500 (BetMGM)

The theme for Jones over the last few years has been to bet Jones at tracks he’s comfortable at. Pocono fits that bill. He’s posted five top-10s over the last 10 races here regardless of team and equipment. That includes back-to-back P11 or better finishes with Legacy Motor Club. Jones has also pulled off those finishes after qualifying in the back-half of the field as well.

Bubba Wallace -115 vs. Alex Bowman (DraftKings)

All of the talk this week was about the payback that Bubba gave to Bowman after the checkered flag last week. However, this is about performance on track. That is has clearly been in Wallace’s favor over the last five similar races as well as the last several races at Pocono. 

The average finish for Wallace has been a few spots better across both of those subsets of data. There’s also the fact that Wallace isn’t locked into the playoffs yet and needs as many good finishes as he can muster down the stretch.