Throwback weekend at Darlington. The “Lady in Black.” A track that’s more attitude than asphalt. This place chews up tires, eats up egos, and leaves fenders looking like a Jackson Pollock painting. And I love every second of it.

Darlington’s not a guessing game — this place has receipts. It rewards experience, rhythm, and guys who can manage fall-off like pros. So I dug into the numbers, broke down current form, and found six drivers worth betting: two favorites, two mid-tier guys with upside, and two longshots who could shake things up.

Let’s throw it back — and maybe cash something big.

 

 

 

Goodyear 400 at Darlington Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson (+500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Larson doesn’t have the win total here that Hamlin does, but don’t let that fool you — he’s been one of the best cars at Darlington for a while. In his last seven starts here, he’s finished top 5 in six of them and led over 1,000 laps in total. He absolutely owned the 2023 Southern 500, leading 55 laps and making late-race moves that reminded everyone why he’s elite. He’s already got a win this season and hasn’t finished outside the top 5 since Atlanta. Fast car, hot streak, great track — the trifecta.

Denny Hamlin (+750 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Denny just broke a 31-race winless streak by embarrassing the field at Martinsville — and now we’re headed to arguably his best track. He’s got four wins at Darlington and an average finish under 8 in over 20 starts here. He’s led laps in 16 different Darlington races. If this turns into a long-run strategy fest — and it usually does — there might not be anyone better. Don’t be shocked if he backs it up with another win this weekend.

 

 

 

Goodyear 400 Mid-Range Picks

William Byron (+950 Caesars Sportsbook)

Byron’s been that guy at Darlington lately. He won here in 2023 and has four top 5s in 13 starts, plus an average starting spot just over 10th. He’s smooth, calculated, and doesn’t burn up his stuff. This is the type of track that rewards his patience. He’s already locked into the playoffs again and has two wins in his pocket this season. He doesn’t need to push — which makes him more dangerous. If you’re not betting him outright, we’ll talk about his prop line in a minute.

Chase Briscoe (+1600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Briscoe pulled off the shock win here in last year’s Southern 500, and it wasn’t a fluke — he led over 250 laps that night and had the fastest car on long runs. His average finish at Darlington is a solid 12.0 across six starts, and now that he’s in the 19 car, the equipment’s even better. He's still adjusting to JGR’s setup, but the feel for this track doesn’t go away. If he qualifies inside the top 12, I’m smashing this line.
 

 

 

Goodyear 400 Long Shot Picks

Chris Buescher (+2800 Caesars Sportsbook)

Last year at Darlington, Buescher was up front late before Reddick took them both out with a failed slide job. Wrecked his finish, but the speed was 100% there. He’s got three top-10s in his last five Darlington starts, including a 3rd-place run in 2023, and he’s already posted four top-10s this season with a 13.6 average finish. RFK brings long-run speed, and Buescher’s one of the cleanest tire managers in the field. If it goes green long enough, he’ll be a factor. Love the value at +2800.

Brad Keselowski (+3000 BetRivers)

It’s wild seeing Brad still this far down the board. He’s got a win here and 8 top-10s in 17 career Darlington starts, plus he’s one of the best in the garage at managing tire wear. He finished 7th here last fall and has quietly put together a strong first stretch of the season. He’s the type of veteran who thrives in races that take a little brains, a little patience, and a little muscle. At this number? He’s a must-play long shot.

 

 

 

Goodyear 400 – Prop Bets

You don’t always need to hit the winner to have a good day. Let’s cook up some props that I think have value for Sunday — based on trends, stats, and just plain common sense.

William Byron – Top 5 Finish (+130 BetRivers)

Byron has finished top 5 in 3 of his last 4 Darlington starts, and he’s one of the best in the field at qualifying well here. You’re telling me we can double our money for something he basically does every time we race here? Easy call. This is my favorite prop on the board.

Chris Buescher – Top 10 Finish (+130 Caesars Sportsbook)

If you like consistency, this is your guy. While he hasn’t won at Darlington, he does have three top-10 finishes in his last five starts at the track and is one of the steadiest drivers in the field this season. Buescher has quietly been finishing inside the top 12 nearly every week in 2025. He’s a smart bet to hang around and capitalize late — exactly what you want in a Top 10 play.

Bonus Matchup: Chase Briscoe over Christopher Bell (+100 BetRivers)

Bell’s been erratic at Darlington — just one top-10 in his last five starts — and the JGR 20 team has been struggling to find long-run speed. Briscoe, on the other hand, has found something here. He won last fall, and now he’s in the better equipment. Even money for the guy with better track history and more momentum? I’m in.

 

 

 

That’s the full card! Six drivers I like to win, three props I love to round out the day. Whether it’s tire strategy, a well-timed caution, or just straight-up speed, this race rewards the guys who know how to race the track — not just the field.

Let’s cash some bets and take the Lady in Black for a ride.