Food City 500 2025: NASCAR Picks & Bristol Motor Speedway Predictions
The Last Great Colosseum is back—and if there’s one thing we know about Bristol, it’s that this place rewards rhythm, short-track mastery, and mental toughness. With high tire wear, a physical race surface, and a bullring layout that punishes mistakes, we’re looking for drivers with proven track records here or at similar venues like Richmond and Martinsville.
I’ve sorted through the stats, 2025 form, and track history to lock in six drivers to target: two favorites, two mid-tier bets with value, and two long shots who could easily crash the party. Let’s go racing in Thunder Valley!
Food City 500 at Bristol Best Bets: Winner Predictions
Kyle Larson (+450 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Still the guy. 1 win, 5 top-5s in his last 7 at Bristol, plus elite speed at both Richmond and Martinsville this season. He hasn’t finished outside the top 5 since Atlanta. Bristol rewards rhythm and guts—Larson has both.
Christopher Bell (+550 Caesars Sportsbook)
Bell’s dirt racing background shows up big on high-wear concrete tracks like Bristol. He’s finished top 5 in 3 of the last 4 races here, and in 2024, he had top-6 finishes at all three concrete tracks—Bristol, Dover, and Martinsville. He’s already got a win this season and ran up front again at Martinsville in 2025, leading laps and showing elite pace. There’s no one hotter on this surface over the last 12 months.
Food City 500 Mid-Range Picks
Ty Gibbs (+2500 FanDuel Sportsbook)
This number makes no sense. Gibbs is quietly putting together one of the most consistent short-track runs in 2025—3 straight top-10s, including a 6th at Richmond. He’s running fast without being reckless. If the 54 car qualifies inside row 5, his odds will crash.
Joey Logano (+2800 BetMGM)
Quiet season so far, but Logano’s Bristol record is loud: 2 wins, 7 top-10s in 10 starts, and zero DNFs since 2017. He’s also one of the few drivers with a positive pass differential here. The Penske cars looked better last week—he’s got upside.
Food City 500 Long Shot Picks
Josh Berry (+3300 BetMGM)
Berry’s a short-track ace with real upside at Bristol. He scored his first career Cup win at Las Vegas earlier this season and backed it up with a top-5 at Phoenix. Last fall, he was top 10 here late before getting shuffled on a restart. He's gaining confidence, and Wood Brothers Racing has looked sharper lately. This is his wheelhouse—and at 33/1, he doesn’t need chaos to make noise.
Ryan Preece (+3500 Caesars Sportsbook)
This is Preece’s kind of track—tight, gritty, and technical. He finished 7th at Bristol last fall and has shown real speed at Martinsville and Richmond. RFK’s short-track package continues to trend up, and Preece doesn’t need chaos to deliver value—he just needs a clean run and track position. At 35/1, he’s a sharp play with sneaky upside.
Food City 500 – Prop Bets
Christopher Bell – Top 5 Finish (+100 Caesars Sportsbook)
Bell has been the guy on concrete since the start of 2024. He’s finished top 6 at every concrete track since last spring and was one of the fastest cars at Martinsville this year. Already a 2025 race winner, and we’re getting even money? Lock it in.
Ty Gibbs – Top 10 Finish (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Three straight top-10s on short tracks and a car that’s been flirting with breakout speed. Gibbs is running cleaner, qualifying better, and executing like a veteran. This number likely won’t be available after qualifying—jump now.
Joey Logano over William Byron (Matchup, -110 BetMGM)
Byron’s had speed, but Bristol hasn’t been kind—just one top-10 in his last five starts here. Meanwhile, Logano has 2 wins and a sparkling history in Thunder Valley. Penske is surging, and Joey thrives in traffic. He’s the safer play with bigger upside.
That’s the card. Six drivers I’m backing to make noise in Thunder Valley and three props built on data, trends, and track identity. Bristol doesn’t hand out wins — it demands rhythm, grit, and execution. Whether it’s strategy, pit timing, or raw speed, this race rewards drivers who know how to fight through the chaos without losing focus.
Let’s cash something big at The Last Great Colosseum!
Player News
Experience Jackson is excited to announce a 2022 sponsorship of NASCAR driver Ryan Vargas. This will be Experience Jacksonâ??s third time partnering with the JD Motorsports team and their second time on the No. 6 Chevrolet.
Vargas will be on the track during the August 6, 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series race. His car displays the Experience Jackson logo, with a white, blue and neon green design. His racing career has spanned a decade, winning the NASCAR stock and late model divisions, including the 2015 NASCAR Super Stock Rookie of the Year at the Bullring at LVMS. Ryan was the recipient of the 2016 and 2017 Wendell Scott Trailblazer Award. His NASCAR Xfinity Series career started in 2019.
DGM Racing and Mason Massey introduce a first-time sponsor to the NASCAR Xfinity Series. PRO-SET® Epoxy (PRO-SET) will serve as the primary partner of the #91 Chevrolet Camaro in the New Holland 250 at Michigan Intâ??l Speedway (MIS) this weekend.
Heading into this weekend, Massey is ready to build on his recent success in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Just a few weeks ago, Massey claimed his second Top-10 finish (ninth) of the season (and his career) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Massey was also awarded for gaining the most spots during the race (+21 positions); he became the 15th driver this year to earn the Arrowhead Brass â??Arrow Upâ? Hard Charger Award. In 13 starts with DGM Racing, Massey has added to his driver resumé two Top 10 and four Top-20 finishes, surpassing the three Top-20s he earned in the previous 23 races he competed in.
Tom and TJ Keen of Keen Parts (CorvetteParts.net) announced that they will run a special Autism Awareness paint scheme in this weekâ??s NASCAR Xfinity Series New Holland 250 at Michigan Int'l Speedway with driver Ryan Ellis and Alpha Prime Racing.
The scheme was thought of by the family of former NHL Player and Stanley Cup Champion Chris Thorburn and his wife Sara. Their three children, Bennett, Mary, and Oscar created the hand-drawn colorful scheme aimed at raising autism awareness. Bennett, an avid-NASCAR fan, was diagnosed with autism at the age of four and learned number recognition and counting through race cars. Since then, the Thorburn family has been attending races in Michigan for several years. Mary and Oscar, as always, were by Bennettâ??s side, assisting him with the scheme â?? writing, â??Autism Lives Matter, Be a Friendâ?, powerful words that will be represented on the lower quarter panel and bumper of the No. 44 Keen Parts Chevy.
Jeremy Clements Racing is excited to step back in time with Kevin Whitaker Chevrolet in a Dale Earnhardt inspired Pink #51 machine at Watkins Glen on Saturday, August 20th.
It will be the second consecutive year Kevin Whitaker Chevy will be the primary sponsor for JCR at The Glen and 10th season overall that Whitaker has supported JCR. Additionally, Circle B Diecast will make their 2nd appearance in 2022 as associate sponsor. Plus, The Runnerâ??s Roost out of Orchard Park, NY, will make their XFINITY Series debut as associate sponsor as well. â??How cool is this car! Our partners have really brought it with the paint schemes this year. Kevin and Ryan Whitaker just added another historic one to the mix with Earnhardtâ??s first race car!â? Clements said.
Sam Hunt Racing (SHR) announced that 23-year-old Trans-Am driver, Connor Mosack, will compete in the NASCAR Xfinity Series (NXS) race with the team at Watkins Glen International (WGI) with RadCats on board of the No. 26 Toyota GR Supra.
Mosack, who currently competes full-time in the Trans-Am series and competes part-time in the ARCA Menards Series, NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, and NXS, will make his second career NXS start in 2022. Earlier this season, the young, road course ace competed with Joe Gibbs Racing at Portland International Raceway giving him valuable seat time on a road course in an NXS car this season. Additionally, Mosack is a former winner at WGI in the TransAm TA2 Series with TEAM SLR.
GMS Racing announced a brand-new partnership with e-commerce platform, SureDone, and existing team partner AutoParts4Less, which will see the companies adorn Grant Enfingerâ??s No. 23 Chevrolet Silverado at Richmond Raceway.
Through their relationship with AutoParts4Less, SureDOne looks to enter the NASCAR sponsorship scene for the first time with a championship-winning organization in GMS Racing.