Coke Zero Sugar 400 Best Bets 2024: NASCAR Picks & Daytona Predictions
Normally, we’re talking about Daytona for the regular season ending race. That’s not the case this year though; it’s the penultimate race. The Coke Zero Sugar 400 on Saturday evening still has the same effect on the playoff standings though, a wild card race if you will. The pack racing keeps everyone in the race, but also keeps everyone in the danger zone for wrecking the whole race.
How does this style of racing affect our Coke Zero Sugar 400 best bets? With anticipated chaos over the 400 miles of racing, how do we get ahead of that for betting? Even though this is Daytona, is there a difference between the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and the Daytona 500 for betting or results? All that plus Coke Zero Sugar 400 best bets regarding winner predictions and NASCAR picks for Saturday’s race at Daytona.
Daytona International Speedway Betting Trends & Strategy
This is Daytona. Chaos is part of the race. That’s to be expected. However, there are ways to take that into account when betting the race. The first way is by simply not going wild on bets. Sure, as you’ll see below the odds are longer, but that’s because of the chaos not in spite of it. Races at Daytona are like games of Roulette or Craps, when you know what you’re doing and you’re smart with it, good returns come your way. When you don’t and aren’t, lots of money can be lost.
The best way to be smart about betting is using smaller units this week than most and know how to read the data. So how do we read the data for Daytona to make some Coke Zero Sugar 400 best bets? While it’s true that Daytona has two races each year and it’s called a plate race of which there are six a year. Each plate race is different.
For the Coke Zero Sugar 400 we can look at both Daytona races over the last few years, but we are going to put far more weight on the 400-mile race versus the Daytona 500. Why? With 40 fewer laps in the race, the racing ramps up sooner and is different throughout. Looking at the top-10 drivers between the last 4 Daytona 500s compared to Coke 400s (who ran multiple of each), there are only 3 drivers who appear on both lists. When it’s expanded to the last 10 of each race, just one driver ranks in the top-10 of average finish on both lists: Bubba Wallace.
All of that being said, we could see a slightly different race this weekend given the additional race in the regular season as well as the fuel saving strategies we saw back at the Daytona 500. Even with that though, there was a big wreck in the 500 and likely will be again in the 400 on Saturday evening – certainly something to keep in mind when making NASCAR picks and Daytona predictions.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions
Chris Buescher +1600 (BetMGM)
Buescher won this race a year ago to cap off his best regular season of his career. He now needs a win to lock into the playoffs as he’s hovering right around the cutoff line. In the last 10 Coke 400 races Buescher has posted the 4th best average finish including 3 P9 or better finishes in the last 4. The Fords have historically been very good at plate races and with that combined with Buescher’s history, he’s primed for a good race on Saturday evening.
Kyle Busch +1600 (BetMGM)
This one is a Dan Malin special. He went so far as to call him to win on this week’s NASCAR Podcast. It’s hard to disagree as Busch has been faster since the Olympic break and has a solid history here. In the last two Coke Zero Sugar 400s, Busch has finished P10 and P7 and nabbed a P12 at the 500 this February. He needs a win in one the last two regular season races to make the playoffs, plus he wants his 19-year streak of winning to stay alive.
Chase Elliott +1700 (FanDuel)
Elliott is competing for the regular season driver’s championship which would give him 15 extra points heading into the playoffs. That could be key for him to do well in the playoffs given that he’s not been as dominant this season. In his favor this weekend is the history in this race that has seen Elliott post 3 P9 or better finishes in the last 4 races. Hendrick cars always show up fast at plate tracks and if Elliott can keep it toward the front throughout the evening, he can nab a win.
Bubba Wallace +2000 (FanDuel)
As mentioned in the above Coke Zero Sugar 400 best bets, Wallace is the only driver who ranks in the top-10 of average finishes between both the last 10 Daytona 500s and Coke 400s. He’s actually best in the field at the Coke 400 at 10.7 and no finishes worse than P15. Wallace, like Buescher, is hanging around the cut line for the playoffs and a win would assure his spot. The fact that he’s arguably the best plate racer in the field yet not the favorite gives us nice value in this bet too.
Alex Bowman +2400 (FanDuel)
The consistency Bowman has shown here has made him arguably the most reliable Hendrick Motorsports car. For some reason though, that reliability also comes with value. He’s the longest odds among Hendrick cars which builds in the value but so does his average finish which ranks 3rd best in the field over the last several Coke 400s.
Noah Gragson +3600 (FanDuel)
Gragson has two-straight top-9 finishes at Daytona plus a P3 at Talladega earlier this year. He’s coming off good runs here in the Xfinity series as well. The SHR contingent is generally pretty competitive at plate tracks as are Fords as a whole, Gragson is in a good position to hang around late and contend for a win.
Erik Jones +4000 (Caesars)
Jones has been an unlikely winner before, including here. He’s finished P12, P17, and P18 in the last 3 Coke 400s and P8 in this year’s Daytona 500. The last two races of the regular season shape up well for Jones to nab a win and lock into the playoffs and Daytona is his first great shot to do it.
Austin Dillon +4000 (BetMGM)
Still embroiled in the controversy surrounding the end of the Richmond race and facing exclusion from the playoffs, he can make that all go way this weekend. Dillon has multiple wins at plate races in his career including this race two years ago. The RCR duo has been much faster and more competitive since the Olympic break. Speed and motivation are a good combo at Daytona.
Daytona Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners
Justin Haley +7500 (FanDuel)
Haley has long been known as a great plate racer. He’s won races at plate tracks at all three NASCAR levels. Haley has also been a factor in most of the races he’s not won as well. In the 4 Coke 400s Haley’s run, his average finish of 14.3 ranks him 5th in the field among drivers with multiple 400s raced.
John H. Nemechek +10000 (Caesars)
Nemechek has run three Cup series races at Daytona and finished P11 or better each time including a P7 in the 500 this year. For a guy going off as this long of shot that’s a pretty good history at a chaotic track such as this.
NASCAR Picks: Coke Zero Sugar 400 Props - Daytona International Speedway
Chris Buescher Top-5 Finish +325 (BetRivers)
Buescher has nabbed a P2 and P1 in 2 of the last 3 400s. We’re betting him to win the race so this prop is a bit of a hedge. If you want some more wiggle room, we can get him to finish Top-10 for +115, also at BetRivers, and he’s pulled that off 5-of-the-8 Coke 400s he’s raced. Either of these bets have value at their current lines.
Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +115 (BetRivers)
We’re getting value on this prop, which makes it an obvious candidate for our Coke Zero Sugar 400 best bets. His average finish over the last 7 Coke Zero Sugar 400s is 10.7. He’s posted four-straight top-12 finishes in the 400-miler and 6-of-7 overall at Daytona. There’s far too much proof that he’s capable of this finish to not bet this prop, especially for plus money.
Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish +140 (FanDuel)
Gragson has made 4 total trips to Daytona in the Cup series, three of those for the 500. That being said, the last two trips, aka last year’s Daytona 500 and Coke 400, but ended with top-10 finishes for Gragson. The SHR driver has a good history at this type of racing across multiple NASCAR series, so these finishes aren’t surprising. It is something we’re going in on this weekend though.
Austin Dillon Top-10 Finish +140 (FanDuel)
As stated above in these Daytona predictions, Dillon is going to make a push to win this race and re-clinch a playoff spot. After all he’s been pretty successful in previous runs here with 5 top-10s in the last 10 races. Since the Olympic break RCR has been much faster and while pure speed isn’t a necessity here, couple that with Dillon’s ability in plate races and we’re looking solid for a top-10 prop.
Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +155 (BetRivers)
In the last 6 trips to Daytona Bowman has 4 top-10s. He’s also pulled off a top-10 finish in half the 400-mile races he’s run here. It’s that kind of consistency we’re looking for when betting props at Daytona.